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Social critic and founder of Naija Lives Matter, Dr. Ope Banwo, has cautioned opposition political parties against underestimating President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ahead of the 2027 general election, despite the defeat of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the Osun State governorship election.
Banwo said the outcome of the Osun election should not be interpreted simply as evidence that the President and the ruling party had lost their political advantage ahead of the next presidential contest.
In an analysis of the election and its possible implications for 2027, Banwo described Tinubu as an experienced political operator who understands political alliances, timing and long-term strategy.
He urged opposition parties to study the broader political implications of the Osun result rather than concentrating solely on the immediate defeat of the APC.
According to him, political opponents who assume that a loss in one state automatically translates into a strategic setback at the national level could be making a costly mistake.
Banwo said the major challenge before the opposition was to develop the organisational capacity required to convert public support into electoral victories.
He identified effective polling-unit structures, trained agents, grassroots mobilisation, results collation systems, legal teams and technology as areas requiring serious attention.
The social critic argued that political parties could not rely primarily on social media popularity, rallies or public sentiment to defeat a well-organised political opponent.
“Everybody can trend hashtags. Everybody can organise rallies. But elections are ultimately won through organisation, not vibes,” he said.
Banwo said opposition parties should have used the Osun election as an opportunity to test their electoral structures ahead of 2027.
He argued that every major election before 2027 should serve as a rehearsal through which parties assess the effectiveness of their polling agents, voter mobilisation networks, collation systems and legal response mechanisms.
The social critic also expressed concern about what he described as inadequate opposition participation in the Osun contest, saying the election presented an opportunity to test strategies under actual electoral conditions.
He maintained that defeating a politically experienced opponent would require more than criticism of the government, stressing the need for sustained grassroots organisation.
Banwo urged opposition leaders to begin preparations early and avoid waiting until the 2027 election before identifying weaknesses in their structures.
He said the Osun result should therefore serve as a lesson for all political parties, particularly those hoping to mount a serious challenge at the presidential level in 2027.
