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Social critic, founder of Naija Lives Matter, Ope Banwo, has warned opposition parties against reading too much into the defeat of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the Osun governorship election, saying President Bola Tinubu remains a formidable political opponent ahead of the 2027 general election.
Banwo, in an analysis of the Osun election and its implications for the 2027 contest, said the outcome should not be interpreted as proof that Tinubu or the ruling party had lost their political advantage at the national level.
He described Tinubu as an experienced political operator with a deep understanding of political alliances, timing and long-term strategy, urging opposition parties to look beyond the immediate outcome of the Osun poll.
According to him, assuming that an APC defeat in one state automatically translates into a strategic setback for Tinubu could leave opposition parties unprepared for the 2027 presidential election.
Banwo said the major challenge before the opposition was to build the organisational capacity required to translate public support into actual electoral victories.
He identified effective polling-unit structures, trained party agents, grassroots mobilisation networks, result collation systems, legal teams and technology as critical areas that opposition parties must strengthen before 2027.
He warned that social media popularity, rallies and public sentiment alone would not be enough to defeat a well-organised political machine.
“Everybody can trend hashtags. Everybody can organise rallies. But elections are ultimately won through organisation, not vibes,” he said.
Banwo said opposition parties should have treated the Osun election as a practical test of their electoral structures, particularly their ability to mobilise voters, deploy polling agents, monitor voting and collation processes and respond effectively to disputes.
He said every major election before 2027 should be regarded as a rehearsal by political parties to identify and correct weaknesses in their structures before the presidential contest.
The social critic also expressed concern over what he described as inadequate opposition participation in the Osun contest, arguing that the election provided an opportunity for parties seeking to challenge the APC nationally to test their strategies under real electoral conditions.
He said defeating an experienced political opponent would require sustained grassroots organisation rather than reliance on criticism of the government or growing dissatisfaction among voters.
Banwo therefore urged opposition leaders to begin preparations immediately and invest in structures capable of converting voter sentiment into votes on election day.
He said the Osun result should serve as a warning to all political parties that electoral victories are determined not only by popularity but also by the strength of party organisation and the ability to protect votes from the polling unit to the final collation.
He maintained that opposition parties hoping to mount a serious challenge to Tinubu in 2027 must avoid complacency and use the remaining period before the election to build durable structures across the country.
