…Continent’s market share stuck at 3%
By Chinelo Obogo
Intra-African air travel has been a perennial nightmare because travelers face outdated visa rules and fragmented air routes. Despite Africa’s increasing population and potential, data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows that the continent holds just three per cent of global air traffic, a worrying figure that reflects how closed skies and rigid borders are stunting its aviation sector growth.
In contrast, IATA’s 2024-2025 data shows that Europe controls 26.7 per cent of the global air traffic market while Asia dominates with approximately 33.5 per cent.
Experts have attributed Africa’s low market share to factors like high operational costs, lack of infrastructure, rigid policies and fragmented skies.
In terms of passenger traffic, Africa’s numbers remain very low. African airlines carried 85 million passengers in 2023 with IATA reporting a 2024 annual traffic rise of 13.2 per cent.
On the flip side, major European airlines performed far better. Ryanair alone carried over 197 million passengers in 2024, and Lufthansa Group carried over 131 million. For Asia, Chinese airlines like China Southern carried 164.7 million passengers in 2024, and Indian airlines like IndiGo carried 114.1 million passengers in 2024 — which is more passengers than the entire African continent combined.
Restrictive visa policies across the continent also continue to undermine the goals of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which relies heavily on the free movement of goods, services, and people. To worsen the situation, the implementation of the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), a flagship project of the African Union’s Agenda 2063, which was designed to liberalise the continent’s airspace, has been very slow.
At the 18th Plenary and Council of Ministers Meeting of the Banjul Accord Group (BAG) held in Abuja this week, the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, lamented that despite numerous declarations by African governments, the progress on SAATM has been sluggish, and the fragmentation of Africa’s airspace has persisted. He urged African states to move beyond making promises and take concrete steps towards the implementation of SAATM. He said African skies must no longer be defined by closed borders, but by ‘open opportunity.’
The latest Africa Visa Openness Index (AVOI) report from the African Development Bank and the African Union, which is the 2024 edition, further buttresses the fact that rather than make progress in liberalising its airspace, the continent is moving backwards. The AVOI report showed that the overall score for the continent decreased from 0.485 in 2023 to 0.479 in 2024. Data for this edition was collected between July and August 2024, with IATA serving as the primary data source, as in previous editions.
In 47 per cent of intra-African travels, citizens still need to obtain a visa before departure, while 28 per cent of travel within Africa is now visa-free, and 25 per cent of African travelers can obtain a visa on arrival. So far, Benin, The Gambia, Rwanda, and Seychelles are leading in terms of offering visa-free access to all African citizens.
The AVOI report shows that more African countries have adopted the use of electronic visas (e-visas). There are 26 at the moment, up from just nine in 2016. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) continues to have the highest regional visa openness score. The report shows that despite some progress, existing visa policies across the continent continue to hinder integration and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) goals.
From the report, Nigerian passport holders can enter 25 to 28 countries without a visa for short stays, while around 15 to 16 countries offer visas on arrival for Nigerian citizens. This means you can obtain a visa at the airport or border crossing upon entry. Around 26 to 44 countries now offer e-visas or ETAs. Nigeria has a visa-free policy for citizens of ECOWAS member countries, and this is due to the ECOWAS Protocol on Free Movement of Persons.
Nigeria recently implemented changes to its visa regime with the introduction of the Nigeria Visa Policy (NVP) 2025, which became effective on May 1, 2025. The Ministry of Interior said the former visa-on-arrival regime has been phased out for a fully automated e-Visa system. Applicants can now complete and submit their visa applications entirely online and are expected to receive a response within 48 hours.
Travelers will also be required to complete digital landing and exit cards online before arriving in or departing from Nigeria. E-visas for business, tourism, family visits, and similar short-term purposes typically allow a stay for up to 90 days, while temporary residence visas for expatriates, students, and others last for up to two years.
The ministry also said that from August 1, 2025, the Federal Government will begin a nationwide campaign to identify and remove foreigners living or working in Nigeria without proper documentation. A period of grace from May 1 to July 31, 2025, was granted for people to regularise their immigration status, as a penalty of $5 per day will be charged for overstaying a visa from August 1, 2025.
However, aviation stakeholders say that the fact 75 per cent of Africans still require visas to enter many countries within the continent is a contradiction of the goal for regional integration. For instance, the President of NANTA, Yinka Folami, told Daily Sun that for a long time, getting visas to South Africa has remained a herculean task for Nigeria’s travel professionals.
Besides the restrictive visa policies and the slow pace of SAATM implementation, the African airline industry itself suffers from fragmentation. This is, in part, a side effect of protectionism, where national interests often supersede the genuine need for regional integration. While Africa has a large number of registered airlines, only a few are large. The majority of them are small, often financially constrained, and operate with limited fleets and routes. A key indicator of the fragmentation of the industry is evident in a report from January 2025, which revealed that only about ten airlines in Africa carry more than 1 million passengers per year.
Ethiopian Airlines, which is Africa’s largest carrier, operates a fleet of over 150 aircraft. The overall total fleet for the continent is small, with Boeing projecting that Africa’s fleet will double to 1,550 aircraft over the next two decades—an indication of its current small size. In comparison, major European airlines like Lufthansa Group have over 700 aircraft, IAG has over 500, and Ryanair operates over 430 aircraft. In Asia, China Southern Airlines alone has over 600 aircraft, and China Eastern Airlines has nearly 600.
Daily Sun earlier reported how, during one of the editions of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) SkyConnect Leadership Dialogue, the Group Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Kenya Airways and Chairman of the AFRAA Executive Committee, Allan Kilavuka, said the industry is highly fragmented, with limited cooperation among African airlines, and that this fragmentation has prevented the consolidation necessary for creating stronger, more competitive carriers. He said this must be addressed or the airlines are destined for failure.
He said: “The problem is that we need viable, formidable airlines in Africa. In their current state, a majority of African airlines cannot survive the long haul. Many of what we have are completely subscale. They cannot succeed. They are not sustainable. They might survive for a few years, but they will eventually die because, in aviation, scale is important. It reduces your cost of operation, increases your capacity to have resources, and gives you better bargaining power.
“So, what is the solution? We have two options. You can inject finances, which would mean that all of a sudden, you’ll have a lot of capacity, and you’ll need a lot of expertise. In fact, you’ll increase the cost of operation. That is one option. The other is to have collaboration and better working relationships among African carriers. This way, you can increase scale without necessarily increasing costs. The concept of coming together collaboratively has been implemented in Europe, North America, and other places very effectively. In Europe, every single day, you see them consolidating even more, but we are going in the opposite direction, even though we all know that if there is any continent that needs to consolidate, it is Africa.”