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Take a look at people numbers behind two diplomatic victories that our people and government are celebrating this week. This number is not the Nigerian population, which we currently assess at 206 million.
Mind you, the population figure is significant on its own. If anything, it advertises that Nigeria is important to Africa and the world, for the right and the wrong reasons. The wrong reason is the global fear of what would happen if law and order breaks down irretrievably and citizens are forced to flee and desperately knock at our neighbours’ borders. The entire world will feel the catastrophe. The right reason is that Nigeria used to be a wealthy country where citizens had purchasing power and were not afraid to deploy it to develop a voracious appetite for foreign goods and leisure services. Today, it’s not as if our appetite for foreign goods has waned. If anything, we continue to whet our interest, even when purchasing power has dried up and percolated in the hands of 29 per cent of our population.
This 29 percent statistic is not a matter of speculation, mind you. The World Bank used its income poverty threshold of $3.20 per day to determine that over 71 per cent of Nigerians cannot afford two square meals a day today. Translated into numbers, the bank is saying that 146 million Nigerians live in abject poverty.
It is a sobering number, this 146 million very poor and vulnerable population. However, my focus today is on the remaining 29 per cent (about 60 million) that are able to afford two square meals per day. It is from this number that we will appreciate the leverage left for Nigeria in diplomatic bargaining.
The task is not an easy one because this critical mass of 60 million fortunate citizens is, however, amorphous. Most surveys do not disaggregate them into reliable classes showing, for instance, the number and quality of meals they are able to afford in a day. What we make of the numbers ultimately becomes a subject of speculation and conjecture.
The most common conjecture is that Nigeria’s wealth is concentrated in the hands of less than 5 per cent of its population. Some others believe the rate to be far less than 5 per cent. We won’t ever know for sure, as long as our country remains an opaque nation on matters of determing people numbers for national planning. Every once in a while, however, our speculations become informed commentary, as on the issue at hand.
In quick succession, both the United Kingdom (UK) and United Arab Emirates (UAE) caved in after the bravado as they flexed diplomatic muscles with Nigeria. The UK Government succumbed to pressure and removed Nigeria and 10 other countries from its so-called red list. On her own, the UAE not only allotted Air Peace Airlines a space at the Dubai Airport but also increased its weekly share of flights, from one to seven!
The major reason both countries capitulated is not because of any economic power that our government wielded during diplomatic negotiations. It is rather because of the people power that our government borrowed from citizens, specifically citizens who fly internationally for business and leisure.
The numbers are an eye-opener. For the first half of this year (January to June 2021), an average of 5,000 passengers travelled out of Lagos and Abuja international airports every day. If we add numbers from Enugu, Kano and Port Harcourt, the daily total could go as high as 7,500 passengers per day. This number is big enough to fill 21 jets every day, an incredible 147 fully-booked flights per week for a poor nation like ours. It is important to keep in mind that government officials probably constitute less than 5 per cent of this number.
To determine what this means, lets look at how the flights out of Nigeria are shared, using the flag carriers from the two countries. UAE’s Emirates, flies 21 big jets out of Nigeria each week. Business is so good on the route that the airline operates two daily flights from Lagos and one from Abuja. British Airways, on the other hand, used to operate two flights per day, one each from Lagos and Abuja. As for other airlines, before COVID-19 happened, over 20 foreign airlines competed for the Nigeria’s passenger traffic. As large as this number is, it was barely enough to cope with the surging traffic, even when they charged premium fare for all classes of seats.
Without a doubt, it is this traffic that the UK and UAE bowed to. Reports from London say that the aviation industry mounted a robust pressure. The Boris Johnson government was told that the industry would soon come cap in hand to ask for a bailout. The pressure from UK carriers on the home government was the catalyst for removal of Nigeria from the so-called red list. As for the Emirates, Nigeria’s threat to drastically slash its flag airline’s 21 weekly slots to only one was the last straw. So there we have it. Nigeria used its citizens’ travelling propensity as a diplomatic bargaining tool.
We mentioned before that Nigerian government officials probably constitute less than 5 per cent of international passenger traffic. This being the case, the majority would be hardworking local businessmen, professionals, retail traders, students and the wealthy sick, as well as foreigners who live or come to do business in Nigeria. Nigeria borrowed this passenger weapon from its citizens. All it had to do was draw attention to what the UK and the UAE stand to lose, an easy opportunity to take a bite from the over N2.0 trilliion in annual income that ordinary Nigerians deliver to the over 20 international carriers.
There are two lessons to learn from this victory and they are not flattering. The first is that these are mere pyrrhic victories. What our country has achieved is the opportunity to continue to waste scarce foreign exchange on international junkets. These funds shall one day be conserved and used to develop the nation, the day Nigeria begins to create, produce and sell quality goods and services, including services in the leisure and health sectors. The second is the recognition that people power makes good governance possible. All we need is to exercise this power right from the polling stations to the policymaking table where the overarching question is always cui bono?
In the final analysis, the job of the policymaker in Nigeria is cut out, some might say cut and dried. It should be about encouraging members of the 29 per cent to take only what belongs to them and to free the balance for use to improve the lot of the majority 71 per cent. And, thereafter, to create an environment that enables the 29 per cent to produce more wealth with the assistance and sustenance of the 71 per cent. When this is achieved, the nation will automatically cut back on consumption of international products and services. We can return to the state when we strutted on the international stage to proclaim that money is not our problem but how to spend it.
