2027: Opposition too fragmented to defeat Tinubu – Kperogi

United States-based academic, Prof. Farooq Kperogi has said that the political opposition in Nigeria is too fragmented to defeat President Bola Tinubu in 2027.

Kperogi, who is also a notable columnist, stated this as a guest on Mic On podcast with Seun Okinbaloye on Sunday.

He pointed to incumbency, the ruling party’s capacity for voter inducement, and a fractured opposition as key factors that could keep Tinubu in power in 2027.

He stated, “I don’t even see why any opposition person is campaigning; it’s already a lost election.

“Tinubu does not even need to do a lot. The incumbency factor that he has, and the capacity to persuade people to vote against their interests through financial inducement, which is a thing in Nigeria. And in all fairness a thing among voters everywhere, because even in the United States there are people who vote against their economic interests because of values.

“All opposition appeals to the same slice of voters from 1999 till now, but they’re now splintered. Peter Obi, Goodluck Jonathan, and Atiku Abubakar all appeal to the same kind of voters. It’s even worse a situation than 2023.”

According to him, the “objective factors” for Tinubu’s defeat were apparent but the “subjective factors” were non-existent.

Kperogi accused the president of favouring his Yoruba tribe in appointments to the consternation of Northern elements.

He said, “The resentment for Tinubu within the north is huge, but there is no one able to instrumentalise this resentment.

“Atiku might win the plurality of the north, but the conditions right now are such that he probably will never even get 15% in all of southern Nigeria, which will not be enough to make him president.

“The opposition is so fragmented, so fractured, and so enervated by internal crisis that they have no capacity to defeat President Bola Tinubu.”

Kperogi also criticised the appointment of Major General Adeyinka Famadewa as Special Adviser to the President on Homeland Security over potential duplication of duties of the Office of the National Security Adviser (NSA).

He said the appointment contravenes the Terrorism Act 2022 and hailed legal minds like Femi Falana SAN for speaking up against it.

Kperogi said, “I don’t have a problem with the appointment of Adeyinka Famadewa as homeland security adviser to President Bola Tinubu, per se. What I have a problem with is the duplication of responsibilities.

“There is a legal and constitutional problem with it. The president is ill-advised, or maybe he just went into this appointment without careful, thorough thought, because the impression that has been created is that the president is not satisfied with the performance of his NSA.”