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Nigeria is sitting on another oil windfall, with crude exports delivering N12.9 trillion in the second quarter alone.
But as global oil prices surge, the bigger question on stakeholders’ lips is whether the country can keep its pipelines secure and its crude flowing from the Niger Delta to the international market.
New data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that crude oil remained Nigeria’s biggest single export commodity in the second quarter of 2026, generating N12.91 trillion, representing 47.79 per cent of the country’s total exports.
The development has assumed greater significance as international crude oil prices have risen sharply amid the escalating conflict involving the United States and Iran in the Gulf region, with Brent crude trading close to or above $100 per barrel at various points.
For Nigeria, higher oil prices could translate into stronger export earnings, increased foreign exchange inflows, improved government revenue and greater support for the naira, provided the country is able to maintain crude production and prevent losses from oil theft and pipeline vandalism.
Analysts have, therefore, stressed the need to sustain the security arrangements around oil-producing assets, particularly pipeline surveillance operations in the Niger Delta.
One of the major private-sector operators involved in the effort is Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited (TSSNL), which was engaged by the Federal Government to protect oil pipelines and other critical petroleum infrastructure in the region.
The company, led by High Chief Government Oweizide Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Tompolo, works alongside conventional security agencies in the fight against oil theft and attacks on oil facilities.
The NBS data showed that Nigeria’s total merchandise trade rose to N41.44 trillion in Q2 2026, representing a 5.61 per cent increase over the N39.24 trillion recorded in Q2 2025.
The latest figure was also 19.13 per cent higher than the N34.79 trillion recorded in Q1 2026.
Exports accounted for 65.20 per cent of total trade during the quarter at N27.02 trillion, while imports stood at N14.42 trillion, representing 34.80 per cent.
Nigeria’s exports increased by 18.77 per cent year-on-year from N22.75 trillion in Q2 2025 and rose by 27.64 per cent from N21.17 trillion recorded in Q1 2026.
Crude oil alone contributed N12.91 trillion to the Q2 export figure, underlining the continued importance of petroleum to Nigeria’s external earnings.
Oil price rally
The current oil price rally is providing an additional boost to Nigeria’s external position.
With Brent crude trading well above the Federal Government’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, the country stands to earn more from every barrel exported, assuming production and export volumes are maintained.
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) Chief Executive Officer, Dr Muda Yusuf, said higher oil prices could provide significant support for Nigeria’s external accounts.
“Higher oil prices typically strengthen Nigeria’s current account balance, improve foreign exchange liquidity and export proceeds,” Yusuf stated in a policy brief titled Implications of the Iran–US–Israel Conflict on the Nigerian Economy.
“This could reduce short-term pressure on the naira and reinforce investor confidence,” he added.
There are, however, concerns that a wider conflict in the Gulf region could disrupt major oil transportation routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil supplies passes.
Such a disruption could push crude prices significantly higher, but it could also create broader risks for the global economy, including higher import costs, inflationary pressure and disruptions to international trade.
For Nigeria, the ability to maximise the benefits of the price rally will therefore depend not only on global prices but also on the country’s capacity to sustain crude production and ensure that more of its output reaches export terminals.
Tantita’s role
Stakeholders argue that this is where pipeline and oil asset protection becomes critical.
The Federal Government’s decision to engage TSSNL for oil infrastructure protection was aimed at curbing oil theft, pipeline vandalism and other activities that have historically reduced Nigeria’s crude production and government revenues.
Tantita’s operations, according to stakeholders, have focused on surveillance of oil pipelines and other assets, working with government security agencies to identify breaches, prevent illegal tapping and support rapid responses to threats.
The argument is that protecting the pipelines goes beyond security. It directly affects how much crude Nigeria can produce, transport, export and ultimately earn.
Any significant disruption along the petroleum value chain could reduce export volumes, weaken government revenues and put pressure on foreign exchange earnings at a time when the country is seeking to consolidate recent improvements in its external position.
President General of the Niger Delta Progressive Alliance, Nse Victor Udoh, said pipeline protection had helped move the country from reactive management of oil-related crises towards longer-term planning.
“It is important to clarify the role of pipeline surveillance within the wider energy landscape. Energy security encompasses the full value chain, from exploration and production to refining, distribution, pricing policy, and subsidy frameworks. Pipeline surveillance does not manage these domains,” he said.
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He added: “Its mandate is precise: safeguarding critical infrastructure that transports petroleum resources. Yet this single function has proven foundational. Without secure transportation channels, production targets falter, refining plans collapse, exports decline, and fiscal projections become unreliable.”
According to him, “Asset protection, in this context, is not a supporting activity. It is a precondition for economic order. In effect, the pipeline is the hinge on which the entire petroleum value chain turns. When that hinge is weak, every other link in the chain carries strain. When it is secure, the entire system gains coherence.”
Udoh said improved surveillance and rapid response had helped reduce pipeline breaches and illegal tapping, thereby improving the volume of crude that could be accounted for.
He said the development had contributed to higher national output and enabled Nigeria to compete more effectively for market share in the international oil market.
“Economic stability follows predictability. When crude flows are secure, refineries can plan feedstock intake with assurance. Export commitments can be met without fear of sudden shortfalls. Gas-to-power projects can operate without recurrent shutdown risks..
“Investors can assess Nigeria’s petroleum sector with clearer risk profiles. Surveillance therefore does more than stop theft. It reintroduces reliability into national energy planning. And reliability is the bedrock upon which sustainable economic growth is built,” he added.
“With predictable flows, national budgeting becomes more credible, infrastructure planning becomes more precise, and long-term contracts become easier to negotiate. Predictability is the silent currency of modern economies, and pipeline surveillance has begun restoring it,” Udoh stated.
Technology strengthens surveillance
Tantita has also moved to strengthen its surveillance capability with advanced technology.
The company recently contracted United States-based Textron Systems to supply three Aerosonde Mk. 4.7 Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) for oil and gas infrastructure surveillance.
Under the agreement signed late last year, the aircraft are to be delivered in an ITAR-free configuration, enabling easier export and deployment for international customers.
The systems are expected to improve Tantita’s ability to monitor pipelines and other oil assets across difficult and remote terrain.
The Aerosonde Mk. 4.7 VTOL UAS uses Hybrid Quadrotor technology, allowing it to take off and land vertically without the need for a conventional runway.
The contract also includes options for training and additional aircraft as Tantita expands its surveillance capabilities.
“The Aerosonde Mk. 4.7 VTOL UAS is a mature, highly reliable, and industry-proven autonomous solution that will provide Tantita Security Services with transformational capability to execute their security operations,” said David Phillips, Senior Vice President, Air, Land and Sea Systems, Textron Systems.
“The Aerosonde system’s demonstrated performance and benchmark-setting reliability will enable the Tantita team to expand its capabilities to protect the oil and gas infrastructure essential to Nigerian security and prosperity,” he added.
The aircraft has been deployed in operations in different parts of the world and is currently operated on more than 10 United States Navy ships. It can carry different payload configurations and operate in both VTOL and fixed-wing modes.
IMF sees external gains
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also acknowledged the potential benefits of higher oil prices for oil-producing countries.
IMF Director of Communications, Julie Kozack, said oil exporters could experience an improvement in their balance of payments as crude prices rise.
“For countries that are energy importers, they may face pressures on their balance of payments. For countries that are oil exporters, their balance of payments may improve because of higher prices. So, we may see a differential effect there. Changes to global financial conditions are likely to affect all countries,” Kozack said.
She noted that the ongoing geopolitical crisis was already affecting financial markets, adding that the IMF had been engaging finance ministers and central bank governors across countries and regions on the implications of the conflict.
“We have engaged with finance ministers and Central Bank governors in many countries and regions. We’ve also engaged with regional institutions to discuss and share perspectives on the implications of the conflict and again, how the Fund can best provide support,” she said.
Kozack added that the Fund was monitoring countries’ financing needs as the situation evolved.
“Our Managing Director has said recently that in an uncertain world, we do see more countries often turning to the Fund for support. We stand ready to provide that support as needed. Right now, we have not received any formal requests for emergency financing. But of course, as I said, as the situation evolves, as countries reassess their financing needs and their policy options, we stand ready to support them using all of the tools that are available to us,” she said.
For Nigeria, the message from the Q2 trade figures is clear: crude oil remains the country’s biggest source of export earnings, even as the government pushes to diversify the economy.
With crude accounting for almost half of total exports in Q2, stakeholders say protecting the infrastructure that moves the commodity from oil fields to export terminals remains essential.
The N12.91 trillion crude export earnings recorded during the quarter could therefore represent more than a temporary windfall if Nigeria can sustain production, reduce oil losses and keep its petroleum infrastructure secure.
The challenge, stakeholders insist, is to convert the current oil price advantage into stronger reserves, more reliable fiscal revenues, improved foreign exchange liquidity and sustained economic growth.
