I muttered the question this Sunday, August 20, when we read that President Bola Tinubu rejigged his cabinet – the same cabinet whose members he was yet to inaugurate. There we go again, I wondered. Why does the President continue giving us the impression that, on matters of policy, he shoots first and asks questions later?
From my reading of Nigerian politicians, only one or two of the ministers-designate could have triggered this preemptive swapping of portfolios, in a bid to hide a noble or dark motive. Our politicians, like leopards on the hunt, stealthily work their game to remain undetected as they plot a surprise charge on opposition members – who become easy prey once they are overpowered in an election. They also do this when plotting how best to implement what they are sure will become an unpopular policy.
Despite the casual nature of the announced swaps, my mind went to two suspects that could have prompted the substitutions. Expert analysts opened our eyes to the money-spinning potential of the newly created Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy. Could this have persuaded the President to switch over ex-Governor Adegboyega Oyetola to the ministry, keeping in mind that the Osun-born minister is alleged to be cousin of the President? However, my gut feeling and the reason for the question is that the exercise was targeted at the Ministry of Interior where the designated minister was shuffled from North East to the South West. If so, what could this portend? Perhaps an onset of a Buhari-type executive anxiety?
It is too early to suppose that we may be entering the zone of executive anxiety that moved former President Muhammadu Buhari to reserve the management of key security agencies to the core Muslim North. Without a doubt, this was his greatest undoing. With such a power-packed assemblage of people who spoke his native language, the country practically abandoned governance to him and his coterie of kinsmen – and watched as they failed spectacularly. Nevertheless, we are yet to overcome the tragic consequences. Buhari’s brazen nepotism unleashed the Bush Fulani on a murderous mission of war against crop farmers and their farmlands nationwide. His cruel policies also opened the gates for the escape of renewed criminalities, which were unleashed on hapless citizens through highway banditry and kidnapping. Added to this were the avoidable loss of lives of rival Muslim fanatics, victims of religious insurgents and terrorists, and those who were murdered in clashes with separatist agitators.
Buhari lost big. We laughed when it became obvious that he couldn’t wait to hand over power. And today, he has fled to Europe to enjoy the shame of his eight wasted years as President.
Why did President Tinubu move the political management of the Ministry of Interior from North East to Sout West? The Interior Minister is the big boss of most national paramilitary organisations, including Immigration, Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, Correctional Services, and the Fire Service. The ministry is, therefore, one of the core agencies overseeing internal security. The shuffling of this ministry’s headship to the South West could be interpreted, rightly or wrongly, as a sign of nepotism-fuelled executive anxiety. From the Buhari example, we have seen how nepotistic practices push leaders to surround themselves only with security chiefs that speak their native language. This conclusion could be wide off the mark in the case of Tinubu and we hope that it is. The Tinubu advisers should keep in mind a keen appreciation of our most recent history on the subject.
Who is after Tinubu? Every Nigerian leader contends with five power blocs that they must wisely manage to govern in relative peace. These are, in alphabetical order, the Core North, Middle Belt, South East, South-South, and South West blocs. The examples of Presidents Obasanjo, Yar’Adua and, to a large extent, Jonathan, demonstrate two ways that leaders could gain the stability they need to govern Nigeria in peace. One is how the leader meets the minimum expectations of godfathers from each bloc. This is the easy part, although it is fraught with the danger of inaugurating unbridled corruption around a leader, as we saw in Jonathan. The political lords are appeased through direct or sponsored appointments, employment of their wards in the public service, direct cash transfers, and award of contracts that no one minds when they are poorly executed to pocket the cash. What the godfathers want is to see equity in the corruption-riddled sharing of the spoils of political war.
A second strategy is to look beyond these grasping members of the political class to promote good governance, equitably connecting the people to opportunities that empower them to survive and thrive. However, this is a brave option as it could mean confiscating the national cake from the political leaders, thereby denying them their “rights.” It is their right to share and hoard the national cake and thereby impoverish the people. This makes it easy to recruit an army of hack writers, political thugs and praise singers to protect them while they share and feast on the peoples’ commonwealth.
Among the leaders that have occupied Aso Villa since 1999, President Obasanjo came closest to superbly walking the tightrope. Unfortunately, the communication hacks that displaced professionals such as Ad’Obe Obe and Stanley Macebuh prevented the masses from appreciating his stunning performance while in office. OBJ is closely followed by Yar’Adua in this respect. They satisfied the power blocs through non-discriminatory, merit-based, equitable appointments while intensely focusing on good governance. Consequently, none of the ethnic blocs could mount a serious opposition to their reign, no matter how hard they tried.
Which of the blocs are after Tinubu, outside the election matters being contested by rival parties at the election appeal court? Influential southwesterners who voted against him are slowly coming around, as is becoming obvious. A President enjoys South East support, no matter where he comes from, so long as the leader constructs and impartially referees in a level playing field. South-Southerners are happy with the token appointments and an assurance that the leader is not unduly promoting southeasterners over them in the pecking order. The three regions of the North will not mind who is in power provided that the leader allows them to hold on to a few “traditional” ministries.
The problem may be that Tinubu appears to have touched the “traditional ministries” of the Core North, in addition to following what is now being perceived as the nepotic steps of his predecessor. This can birth executive anxiety that will dog his presidency footsteps. The President should also note that, beyond the “traditional northern ministries,” there are two other sectors that determine the success of a leader. These are the finance and the security sectors. As bad as the Buhari administration was, the leader appropriated security with his kinsmen but shared the finance positions. Does the President want citizens to perceive his appointments in the key finance and security sectors as a continuation of the nepotism of the past?
The irony, apparently lost on those privately promoting this foolish advice to Mr. Tinubu, is that this is a recipe for national bickering and instability.