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From Romanus Ugwu, Abuja
Ahead of the off-cycle Anambra State governorship election, candidates of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Labour Party (LP) have been rated favourites to emerge victorious in this weekend’s poll.
According to an opinion poll report conducted by African Development Institute of Research Methodology (ADIRM), while the candidate of the state’s ruling party, APGA, Chukwuma Soludo, was tipped to win, the candidates of the APC, Nicholas Ukachukwu, and LP, George Moghalu, trailed as first and second runners-up, respectively.
Director of the institute, Temitope Atoyebi, who presented the poll report at a press conference in Abuja on Tuesday, described it as a comprehensive, evidence-based assessment of voter perceptions and likely electoral outcomes.
Atoyebi said that the poll is part of the institute’s ongoing commitment to promoting data-driven democratic engagement and policy research in Africa.
Conducted between October 1st and 31st, 2025, the institute claimed that the APGA candidate is projected to win all 21 LGAs with an estimated 85.7 per cent out of scientifically selected sample of 73,500 registered voters, while the APC and LP candidates would trail with approximately 7.6 per cent and 5.0 per cent respectively.
“Between October 1st and 31st, 2025, our field teams gathered responses from a scientifically selected sample of 73,500 registered voters, representing all 21 Local Government Areas of the state, with 3,500 respondents per LGA. This design ensured proportional representation of age, gender, education, and occupational categories across the state.
“Our findings reveal a clear and decisive preference among voters for the incumbent governor, Soludo of the APGA. According to the data, Soludo is projected to win all 21 LGAs with an estimated 85.7 per cent of the total votes cast. His closest competitors, candidates of the APC and the LP, are projected to secure approximately 7.6 per cent and 5.0 per cent respectively, while other minor parties collectively account for 1.7 per cent of voter preference.
“This overwhelming support is not a coincidence. The data indicate that Soludo’s developmental policies, particularly his infrastructural expansion, education reforms, and transparent governance approach, have strongly influenced public perception. Across age brackets, income groups, and educational levels, the majority of respondents identified visible progress in road rehabilitation, urban renewal, youth empowerment, and education access as reasons for their preference.
“Furthermore, the poll reflects broad voter readiness and enthusiasm, with over 90 per cent of respondents confirming their intention to vote in the November 8 election. This high level of political engagement underscores the growing trust in democratic participation within Anambra State,” the institute noted.
Speaking further, Atoyebi said: “For ADIRM, this research is more than just a statistical exercise. It represents our institutional belief that credible, independent data can help strengthen democracy by providing citizens, policymakers, and political stakeholders with objective insights into voter behaviour and expectations. Our methodology adheres strictly to international standards of transparency, inclusiveness, and reliability.
“We therefore urge political actors, observers, and analysts to view this report not through partisan lenses, but as a scientific reflection of public opinion as at the end of October 2025. The findings clearly show that Anambra voters are leaning toward continuity and consolidation, favoring a governance model that has demonstrated results,” he noted.
