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By Olakunle Olafioye
the Director General of the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency, NIHSA, Clement Nze, has harped on the need for the government to take the 2023 Annual Flood Outlook forecast given by NIHSA seriously in order to prevent the recurrence of the 2022 flood disasters that ravaged some states in the country.
The NIHSA boss, who is an engineer, noted that while it is impossible to prevent natural occurrence such as flooding, its negative impacts could be mitigated.
He, therefore, identified what the government at all levels must do to reduce the impact of flooding Nigthe country.
The rains have started and consequently the fear of flooding is gradually dawning on us again. What is your reaction to this?
There are two agencies at the federal level that give forecasts. The forecast by NiMET which came out on the 24th of January to give us an overview of what is likely to happen in the country in terms of rainfall, the amount and the length of the season. Following from that, NIHSA, our agency, came out on 17th of February to talk about what we should expect in terms of flooding in the country. NIMET has made us to know that we are going to have ‘above normal rainfall’ in most places in the country this year. And we know that rainfall is a major factor when we are talking about flooding. Whatever enters the rivers as the rain falls will definitely affect the people living downstream. It is quite early in the day to make categorical statements, but be it as it may we have seen what is happening already. So many places in the Southwest are being rendered impassable and we are yet to get to the peak of the rainy season in the country. So, in essence, the predictions that have been made by the two agencies of the government, should serve as a guide to whatever we are planning to do.
Based on the forecast by NiMET that some parts of Nigeria are going to experience ‘above normal rainfall’ does that automatically translate to flooding in these parts of the country?
Exactly, even before now some experts in the field of environment have been talking based on what is available to them that we should expect more flood this year. The essence of making public pronouncements and predictions is to help in mitigating against flood disasters. So, the agencies have come out early enough. If we can do what we need to do – the citizens, the sub-nationals – to do their own part, we will be able to reduce the huge amount of flood that is likely to occur in the course of the year and its impacts. But if no action is taken, we should be prepared for the worse. Again when we make our predictions public, there is a saying that to be forewarned is to be forearmed. We are saying it so that people will have adequate time to prepare. We expect that after giving the predictions, the government and the citizens should be able to work to ensure that the negative impact of this flood is reduced. We can’t stop it permanently, but we can reduce it. We have made public the number of local governments and states that are likely to be affected and this has been made known to the actors in the states so that they can do the needful so that the predicted doom, if I may use that expression, does not happen.
NIHSA in its Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) predicted that about 178 LGAs in 32 states will be severely affected by flooding, what make these states so vulnerable to flooding?
Our prediction is scientific. It takes into account the predicted amount of rainfall or precipitation. NiMET is the official authority to make pronouncement on that and they have given us their prediction on that. NiMET gives information on the amount of rainfall to expect, the onset date, length of the rainy season and the cessation date. So, NIHSA takes into account the amount of rainfall as predicted, the river system, the topography of the environment, the geology of the area whether it is sedimentary or basement. If it is a rock environment you can be sure that any water that falls on top of it will flow, which we call run off; if it is what we call basement complex, if rain falls on the ground it starts penetrating and start flowing. So, we take into account the geology of the area and the land use pattern and feed them into our model to be able to come out with the locations that are vulnerable in the country. And, of course, how close are they to the Atlantic, to the shore talking about coastal flooding and so on; how congested is the city to be sure whether there will be enough space for the run off. So, it is a whole gamut of consideration before we make our final pronouncement about which location might be flooded in the course of the year.
Some states in the country suffered serious flooding problem last year notable among them is Kogi State. What would you adduce to massive flooding in these states and the devastations that accompanied it to?
Kogi State is quite peculiar. It is the convergence of the two major rivers in the West and Central Africa. West Africa for River Niger which takes its course from Guinea Conakry, traversing about seven countries and carrying whatever is coming into the river. On the Central African side, River Benue which is from Cameroonian mountain and the inflow from Chad, they all gravitate towards Nigeria. Eventually, they will converge in Lokoja, Kogi State. At times there may be no rainfall in Nigeria, but because it has rained in Mali, Guinea, it will come down to Nigeria. So, it is the epicenter, the meeting point of these two major rivers in the West and Central Africa, that is part of what is causing incessant flooding in Lokoja, Kogi State. Over the years, the two rivers have been highly silted. At times during the dry season, around November, February, you will see some many high laps within the River Niger. The carrying capacities of these rivers have been highly compromised by siltation, they are no longer deep enough. That is why you notice that River Niger begins to swell with any little rainfall and overtake the boundaries. The anthropic activities of man also aggravate the problem within Lokoja or Kogi as a whole
Learning from the 2022 flood disaster, are there enough indications to show that the affected states have put adequate measures in place to prevent a reoccurrence this year?
To the best of my knowledge, I have not seen any action taking place to be able to say there won’t a repeat of what happened last year. The 2022 flooding in Nigeria, by all standards, remains a reference point in terms of it severity; 2012 used to be the reference point, but 2022, a period of 10 year interval, superseded what happened in 2012. But in spite of that, I am yet to see any state engage in any activities to prevent the repeat of the flooding of 2022.
What are those things that you expect that by now states ought to have been put in place?
I am in Abuja now and using it as a reference point, as a pilot state, so to say, I have seen activities in the FCT; how the Honourable Minister of FCT has mobilized various directorates in the FCT to go to the field. The Abuja Environmental Board, the FCT Emergency Agency, the Engineering Services Department and so on, these directorates have been relating, going to the field, clearing block drainages, this is human activity; people dumping refuse, even in capitals, into the rivers or drainages. So, clearing of drainages is very important, removing structures obstructing free flow of excessive run offs during rainy season. In FCT here, so many structures have been removed to make way for the free flow of run offs. Also we keep advocating that there are many streams that can be desilted. There are small rivers within each of the states, in city centres that the government should be able to desilt so that in case of rain or flooding the water will be able to flow freely.
Looking at the gravity of the problem in Kogi, it appears the flooding in Lokoja is far beyond the capacity of the state government. How would you say the Federal Government is tackling this issue?
At the critical stage in the country we brief the president through the Minister of Water Resources. Now, concerning what is being done, these activities could be short term, medium term or long term. Arising from one of our memo to Mr. President in 2022, the president set up a Presidential Committee to develop an action plan for preventing flood disasters in Nigeria. The committee was given 90 days to come up with a blueprint. The committee was inaugurated by Minister of Water Resources on 3rd of November, 2022. It covers a whole gamut of things that should be done to give a holistic action to tackle flooding disasters. So, it covers so much groundwater resources, energy, transportation, environment, agriculture, health, housing, urban development and so on. Now, I mentioned the necessity for desilting the small rivers we have. That is within the purview of state government. But when we talk about River Niger and River Benue, it is a complex one and quite requires a lot of financial resources. We also talk about the building of dams, small or big dams, creating retention bases that would take off the huge flood that normally goes through the channels of the rivers. So, this document, when it is implemented, we believe would go a long way in reducing disasters that are associated with flooding in Nigeria. Desilting or the dredging of River Niger and River Benue is not a tea party in terms of resources; it’s quite demanding. But we can do something that will reduce the amount of water that enters into the main River Benue. There are so many tributaries of the River Benue that are highly active, many of them have not been dammed apart the Katsina Ala River that is dammed somewhere in Kashim Bila. Other ones -Gongola, Taraba, Mayo Kebbi, a lot of them within Nigerian portion of River Benue are yet to be dammed.
