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Just as technology has opened up the world of sports betting, by making it possible to bet on your favourite sports and markets from the convenience of your own home, it is also helping to bring new angles and methods to the art of sports betting itself.
As big data, AI and other technologies become ever more refined in their ability to process and analyse huge quantities of data, these are being used both by bookmakers and bettors to help produce betting odds on various events, e.g. betting odds on Champions League, market prices and predictive analysis. And at the same time, professional sports teams and players are increasingly employing analytics to improve their performance levels.
About Analytics
So, what are these new analytical tools and how can we use them as sports bettors? Are analytics out of the reach of anyone without a pHD in mathematics?
The answer to that is a definite no. A basic level of numeracy and some comfort with crunching numbers will be required to help you get the most out of predictive analytics, but it is not necessary to be able to digest academic maths papers or plough through complicated statistics books.
The essential purpose of analytics is simply to find situations when the odds on your favourite betting site are wrong, and to do this by using numerical analysis. This can involve mathematical programs and high-level number crunching, but it need not. Some of the most effective analytical tools, such as those developed by baseball guru Bill James, require only basic maths skills to use.
Monte Carlo Analysis
Monte Carlo may be known for its glamorous casinos but it is also increasingly associated with sports betting analytics, through something known as a Monte Carlo simulation.
These can be complex or simple, indeed it is possible to set up a basic Monte Carlo simulation using widely available spreadsheet software. The principle of this form of analysis is that it models potential outcomes of a sports event by simulating that event many hundreds or thousands of times and then combining the results to produce a percentage chance for each outcome.
This form of predictive analysis is useful for those who find it difficult to turn ratings or estimates of a team’s ability into percentage chances and odds.
Weighting the Factors
One of the aims of sports betting analytics tools is to turn raw data into usable predictions, which can sometimes be difficult even for bettors who know their sports thoroughly. For example, you may be able to list the factors that can influence the outcome of a football match, such as:
· Team ability
· Player ability
· Manager experience
· Pitch conditions
· Injuries
· Team morale
· Tactical considerations
· Distance travelled by the away team
· Altitude
· Crowd size
· Record of the referee
All of these factors could be of relevance, but are they all equally important? How do you determine which factors are the most significant, and how do you attribute weights to these?
Analysing these factors is easier if you are able to use mathematical procedures such as linear regression, but there are lots of tools and calculators out there that can help you, and there is plenty of data available, mostly for free, that you can search through to find nuggets of analysis.
Analytics is for Anyone
The truth is that analytical prediction tools are simply mathematical ways of looking at a sports event, and these need not be in any way complicated.
For example, let’s say Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City are vying for the Premier League trophy. You may think you know the strengths of the teams and which is the best, but by trying to put a number on these teams you will clarify your own thoughts. It is one thing to think that Manchester City are the best, followed by the other two, but is that enough to support a bet?
Even a rudimentary ‘marks out of ten’ rating system is a form of analysis, in that it provides more clarity than a subjective statement and can help you to make more solid bets.
The Certainty of Uncertainty
While predictive analytics tools can be fascinating and can help you to sharpen your betting, it is important to remember that sports betting is an extremely unpredictable pastime, and it is not yet possible for even the most sophisticated computer to accurately weigh up the thousands of factors that determine the outcome of a sports event. That’s why you should never bet with money that you can’t afford to lose, and should always take a long-term, patient approach to betting.
