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By Chinwendu Obienyi
Nigeria’s external trade position is strengthening markedly, with the country’s trade surplus projected to rise to about $18.1 billion in 2025, driven by faster export growth, structural shifts in import composition and the impact of foreign exchange (FX) market reforms, experts stated at the weekend.
Latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), alongside analyses by Cordros Research and Cowry Research, suggest that while crude oil continues to face price and production headwinds, diversification into non-oil exports, gas, and refined petroleum products is reshaping the trade landscape.
This is coming after the NBS revealed that Nigeria’s total foreign trade rose by 8.7 per cent year-on-year (y/y) to N38.94 trillion in the third quarter of 2025 (Q3 25), compared with N35.82 trillion in the corresponding period of 2024. On a quarter-on-quarter (q/q) basis, trade activity remained broadly resilient, edging up from N38.04 trillion recorded in Q2 25.
In dollar terms, total trade increased by a stronger 12.8 per cent year-on-year to $25.58 billion in Q3 25, reflecting both higher trade volumes and exchange rate effects. This expansion came despite a challenging global environment characterised by softer commodity prices, tighter global financial conditions, and subdued growth in several of Nigeria’s key trading partners.
A key highlight of the Q3 25 trade data was the faster pace of export growth relative to imports. Total exports rose by 15.3 per cent year-on-year to $14.99 billion, while imports increased by a comparatively slower 9.5 per cent to $10.59 billion.
According to analysts at Cordros Research, export performance was underpinned by strong growth in non-crude oil exports, which surged by 45.6 per cent year-on-year. Non-oil exports also recorded a robust expansion of 23.9 per cent, reflecting improved competitiveness following currency adjustments, better FX access for exporters, and gradual gains from backward integration policies in sectors such as agro-processing, manufacturing, and solid minerals.
These gains helped to offset a marginal 0.9 per cent decline in crude oil exports, which remained pressured by softer international prices. Average crude prices fell to $68.17 per barrel in Q3 25 from $78.70 per barrel in Q3 24, limiting export earnings despite modest improvements in production and reduced oil theft.
On the import side, Nigeria’s trade data point to a significant shift in composition rather than an across-the-board surge. Total imports were driven higher by a sharp 45.5 per cent year-on-year increase in non-oil imports, owing to improved FX liquidity, easing supply constraints, and firmer domestic demand.
In contrast, petroleum imports contracted sharply by 45.6 per cent year-on-year, reflecting the ramp-up of domestic refining capacity and reduced dependence on imported refined products. According to economic analysts, this structural decline in fuel imports is playing an increasingly important role in moderating Nigeria’s overall import bill and reducing vulnerability to external shocks.
As export growth continued to outstrip imports, Nigeria’s trade balance strengthened by 32.1 per cent year-on-year to $4.40 billion in Q3 25, up from $3.33 billion in the same period of 2024. This widening surplus underscores the combined effect of export diversification, FX reforms, and import substitution efforts.
Hence, these dynamics are expected to persist through the remainder of the year and into 2025. While softer crude oil prices and only modest gains in crude production are likely to continue weighing on oil export earnings, higher export volumes of gas and refined petroleum products are expected to provide a meaningful offset.
On the import side, improved FX liquidity and relative stability of the naira are supporting growth in non-oil imports, particularly of raw materials and capital goods needed to support domestic production.
However, the continued decline in refined petroleum imports is helping to slow the overall pace of import growth.
Thus, analysts projected that the country’s trade balance will remain firmly in surplus in 2025, reaching about $18.08 billion, compared with $13.17 billion recorded in full-year 2024. “
“Looking ahead, softer crude oil prices and only modest gains in crude production are expected to continue weighing on crude oil export earnings. Nevertheless, higher export volumes of gas and refined petroleum products should more than offset this drag. On the import side, improved FX liquidity and the stability of the naira are supporting growth in non-oil imports, while the steady decline in refined petroleum imports is moderating overall import momentum, resulting in a slower pace of increase in total imports. Taken together, the trade balance is projected to remain firmly in surplus in 2025, reaching $18.08 billion compared with $13.17 billion in 2024”, Cordros Research said in its weekly report.
For their part, analysts at Cowry Research said, the widening trade surplus is expected to feed positively into the current account balance, improving Nigeria’s external position and providing fundamental support for the value of the domestic currency in the medium term.
