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It is alarming that Nigeria’s public debt has reached N153.29 trillion. Data from the Debt Management Office (DMO) indicate that, as of September 2025, the nation’s total public debt stood at N153.29 trillion. This represents an increase of N893.87 billion on quarter-on-quarter basis. Current statistics reveal that Nigeria’s total debt stock has exceeded the recommended threshold. For instance, as of early 2025, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio reached approximately 53.9 per cent by first quarter 2025. This significantly surpassed the federal government’s 40 per cent ceiling. It has triggered serious worries over fiscal sustainability, with debt servicing consuming a massive portion of the national budget.
This has far-reaching implications for the economy. Huge debt bill could mortgage the future of the country. In the last quarter of 2025, the Senate approved N17.89 trillion new borrowing request by President Bola Tinubu for 2026 financial year. Nigeria’s debt burden has escalated sharply since 2023, moving from N49.85 trillion to over N134 trillion in a short span. It continued in 2025. Debt servicing and personal costs had already gulped about 105 per cent of the federal government’s total revenue from January to July 2025, even as receipts fell sharply below target, and capital projects suffered deep crisis in the outgoing year.
This contradicts President Tinubu’s claim last September that his government met its projected revenue target for the year in August, 2025. He boasted that his administration would exceed it by end of 2025. He said this would reduce Nigeria’s dependence on external borrowing. That did not happen. Analysis of the 2026-2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper by the Budget Office showed that contrary to the claims, the federal government earned only N13.67trillion as aggregate revenue, compared with a pro-rata target of N23.85trillion.
With the new loans, Nigeria’s public debt will reach a new-high of N188trillion by the end of 2026. With the projected public debt of N188trillion by year-end, this translates to N652,000 per Nigerian citizen. The implications are ominous for the economy. The N153trillion surpassed the initial target outlined in the 2025 Appropriation Act. The total debt stock of N153trillion reflects a disturbing build-up in both domestic and external obligations. In dollar terms, Nigeria’s total debt profile rose from $99.66billion in June 2025 to $103.94billion in September 2025, indicating a $4.28billion increase within the period under review. The dollar denominated debt stock expanded by 4.29 per cent over the 3-month period.
The highlights of the latest debt stock show external debt of $48.46billion. This is equivalent to N71.48trillion, accounting for 46 per cent of the total public debt. In June 2025, external debt was $46.98billion or 47.14 percent of the total debt. This means that external obligations increased by $1.48billion within the quarter. Domestic debt expanded even more sharply in dollar terms, increasing from $52.67billion in June 2025 to $55.47billion in September 2025. This represents a rise of $2.80billion. In naira terms, the domestic debt stood at a staggering N81.82trillion in September 2025 compared to N86.55trillion in June 2025. Also, domestic borrowing by the federal government accounted for 53.37 per cent of the total debt in September 2025. This is slightly higher than 52.86 per cent recorded in June 2025.
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The DMO disclosed that the September external debt figures were converted using the Central Bank of Nigeria’s official exchange rate of N1,474.85/dollar. In contrast, the June figures were converted at the exchange rate of N1,529 to the dollar, meaning that the stronger exchange rate in September partly offset the naira value of external debt. The rising public debt has reached unacceptable level that a moratorium on borrowing has become necessary. For example, in September 2025, external debt stock profile showed that multilateral creditors remain Nigeria’s largest lenders.
Loans from the World Bank Group and the African Development Bank (AfDB) Group, alongside other multilateral institutions accounted for $23.41billion, representing 48.3 per cent of the total external debt. The International Development Association (IDA) loans accounted for $18.18billion, while the loan from the International Bank of Reconstruction and Development was $1.36billion. Nigeria’s indebtedness to the AfDB is $2.15billion, and that of the African Development Fund is $1.02billion.
Despite these concerns, the government is still on a borrowing binge. Last year, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Wale Edun, revealed that the federal government had a significant N30trillion revenue shortfall for 2025, with expected revenue at N10.7trillion against N40.8trillion target. He attributed this to weak performance of oil/gas earnings that resulted in rolling over capital projects to 2025. The shortfall, he added, impacted negatively on the 2025 budget. The current unpleasant situation did not come by accident. It is the outcome of years of accumulated debt and unrealistic revenue projections that predate the present administration. The matter has been made worse by government’s unrealistic revenue projections, driven by excessive borrowing and weak expenditure discipline.
We urge the government and its policymakers to be careful about matters that weaken policy execution that could plunge the country into serious debt crisis. Let the government use the loans prudently. With Nigeria’s public debt having exceeded the acceptable threshold, circumspection should guide borrowing.
