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From Abel Leonard, Lafia
As the political atmosphere in Nasarawa State heats up ahead of the 2027 governorship race, the conversation has shifted from whispered speculation to open lobbying, strategic manoeuvring and fierce debates about zoning.
The race is already crowded, with several aspirants attracting strong attention from stakeholders, youths and political observers alike. At the centre of discussions are four prominent figures: former Inspector-General of Police Mohammed Abubakar Adamu; the state’s Accountant-General, Musa Ahmed Mohammed (popularly known as Barade Nasarawa); renowned public health expert, Dr. Faisal Shuaib; and philanthropist-turned-politician, Dr. Muhammed Musa Maikaya.
Adding a new dimension to the contest is the recent defection of Senator Aliyu Wadada, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) strongman who crossed to the All Progressives Congress (APC). Wadada’s move has rattled the political equation, shifting alliances and reshaping expectations for 2027.
Political pundits are of the opinion that the defection of Senator Aliyu Wadada, the influential SDP lawmaker representing Nasarawa West, to the APC has electrified the political space.
Wadada, a grassroots mobilizer with deep financial resources and loyal followership, has long been considered a kingmaker in Nasarawa politics. His decision to join APC is widely interpreted as a strategic move to position himself for relevance in 2027, either as a governorship aspirant, a power broker, or a bargaining force for federal appointments.
His defection unsettles both the SDP and the PDP, but it also complicates the APC field. While some party loyalists welcome him as a “big fish,” others resent his sudden embrace after they endured the party’s internal crises.
An APC stalwart in Karu, who asked not to be named, expressed concern over the scenario: “We stayed and worked for APC when the storm was heavy. Now people like Wadada, who left us then, are coming back to reap. Many loyalists are not happy.”
For aspirants like the former IGP and the Accountant-General, Wadada’s arrival could either be a blessing or a curse. His structure in Nasarawa West is formidable, and any alliance with him could tilt the scales. But if he throws his hat directly into the governorship race, he will complicate the already crowded field, Daily Sun’s investigations further revealed.
Political analyst Abdullahi Isah sees Wadada’s defection as a sign of things to come. According to him, “Wadada has redefined the grammar of 2027. He is both an aspirant and a kingmaker. His defection strengthens the APC, but it also deepens internal competition. The question now is: will he run, or will he bargain?
Each of these figures in the APC in Nasarawa State represents a different political pathway, with varying strengths and liabilities. And each candidacy, along with Wadada’s defection, has triggered renewed questions about whether Nasarawa will stick to the unwritten zoning arrangement that rotates power among its diverse zones, or abandon it in favour of a free for all.
For decades, Nasarawa politics has revolved around zoning, an informal arrangement meant to ensure fairness and inclusion among the state’s major zones. Yet in the buildup to 2027, that arrangement appears to be under strain.
Observers argue that the entry of big names, especially former IGP Mohammed Adamu who is from the southern zone of the state, has fuelled calls for an “open contest.” Some stakeholders say zoning has outlived its usefulness and should give way to merit and capacity. Others warn that abandoning zoning risks creating tension, marginalisation, and disunity.
Dr. Sani Haruna, a political analyst in Lafia, put it bluntly when he said “Zoning is like a safety valve for our politics. If you ignore it, you open the door to bitterness and instability. But if you cling to it too rigidly, you risk stifling strong candidates who can deliver.”
The zoning question, therefore, is no longer just about fairness. It has become the central battleground that will shape how the primaries and eventual general election unfold.
According to political observers, of all the aspirants, none has generated as much strategic buzz as former Inspector-General of Police Mohammed Abubakar Adamu. His name first surfaced in April when local groups and opinion leaders urged him to contest. Since then, he has reportedly been holding consultations, building bridges, and lobbying stakeholders.
Adamu’s pedigree as a national security chief appeal to many who see him as disciplined, connected, and capable of handling the challenges of governance. He brings a national profile, access to federal networks, and the aura of order that comes with policing at the highest level.
A stakeholder in Nasarawa West, Alhaji Danjuma Ogoshi, stated that “we have tested politicians and technocrats, but what we need now is someone with authority and a sense of discipline. Adamu has both. He will command respect in Abuja and at home.”
Yet his candidacy is not without controversy. Critics argue that he is part of the push to jettison zoning. Some local leaders fear that his entry will tilt the scales against zones that believe it is their “turn” in 2027.
Political commentator, Esther Luka notes that “the IGP’s strength is also his weakness. His national stature is undeniable, but in Nasarawa politics, local balance matters as much as pedigree. If he rides roughshod over zoning, it could cost the APC dearly.”
Musa Ahmed Mohammed, the state’s Accountant-General, is another name that has rapidly risen to prominence. Known popularly as Barade Nasarawa, his aspiration is being championed by youth groups, traditional institutions, and even within government circles.
Supporters say his reputation for diligence and accessibility makes him the “people’s candidate.” More crucially, his proximity to Governor Abdullahi Sule has fuelled speculation that he may be the governor’s preferred successor.
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In the words of APC youth leader, Yusuf Abdullahi, “we trust Barade. He has managed resources with transparency, and he listens to the young people. Most importantly, the governor trusts him, and that means continuity.”
But his rising profile has sparked controversy. Civil society groups and opposition voices argue that as a serving public officer, his political activities blur the line between governance and ambition. Some watchdogs have even called for investigations into possible abuse of office if he openly campaigns without resigning.
Still, his appeal among youths and the perception of gubernatorial backing make him a formidable contender. His greatest asset is proximity to power, but it may also be his greatest vulnerability if opponents paint him as the “system’s candidate.”
Dr. Faisal Shuaib, a public health expert with international recognition, represents the technocratic face of the Nasarawa 2027 race. Having led major national health interventions, including vaccination campaigns, he has built a reputation for competence, professionalism, and problem-solving.
Stakeholders within the ruling APC see him as a candidate who could broaden the party’s appeal beyond politics of patronage. Supporters tout him as a breath of fresh air- a man of ideas rather than of entrenched structures.
“Dr. Shuaib is not your typical politician. He has credibility, he has connections at the federal level, and he understands governance from a development perspective,” said Dr. Bala Mohammed, a political observer in Karu.
But political analysts also caution that technocrats often struggle in Nigeria’s retail politics. Electoral success requires more than goodwill; it demands grassroots networks, financial muscle, and alliances with power brokers.
Through the Maikaya Development Foundation, Dr. Muhammed Musa Maikaya has invested heavily in health, education, and youth empowerment across the state. This has given him a loyal grassroots following, especially among rural communities that directly benefit from his interventions. To many, he is the “homegrown” candidate who has been on the ground long before political winds shifted.
“Dr. Maikaya is not new to us. He has built schools, given scholarships, and provided healthcare. His name is already in our homes, not just on posters,” said Alhaji Ibrahim Abdullahi, a community leader in Nasarawa North.
His challenge is converting that grassroots popularity into statewide political machinery. Without the blessing of party power brokers, his philanthropy may not be enough to secure the ticket.
While the APC grapples with defectors and zoning, the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has had its own share of crisis. Rumours that the PDP would abandon its zoning formula triggered an internal revolt, with some members dragging the party to court before eventually defecting to the new coalition party, the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
The ADC has since gained traction, especially after a former deputy governor of Nasarawa State, Michael Abdul emerged as its state chairman. Political watchers, however, argue that the party’s foundation remains weak. Most of its members are disgruntled politicians who felt sidelined in their former parties, raising doubts about its cohesion and staying power.
Analysts like Ibrahim Yakubu are of the view that the ADC in Nasarawa is more of a coalition of the aggrieved than a structured political force, adding that “they have voices, they have grievances, but do they have the structures and networks to trouble APC and PDP? That remains doubtful.”
This perception of weakness means that while the ADC may serve as a protest platform, its ability to upstage the two dominant parties is uncertain. Still, in a highly fragmented contest, even a “weak” ADC could play spoiler, splitting votes in crucial constituencies and altering the balance of power.
Within the PDP itself, it is widely believed that the party has settled for former governorship candidate, Emmanuel Ombugadu from the Northern zone, the same zone that produced the incumbent governor, Abdullahi Sule.
But PDP chairman, Adamu Bako Ninga, has dismissed such claims, saying that “the PDP has not zoned its governorship ticket to any zone and has not anointed any candidate. We will conduct free and fair primaries,” Ninga insisted.
Meanwhile, within the APC, prominent voices like former national chairman, Abdullahi Adamu continue to champion the argument that power must shift to the Western zone in 2027. His position resonates with many grassroots loyalists, but it also deepens the party’s zoning dilemma.
For now, the aspirants are building silently. Adamu, leveraging national networks, the Accountant-General, cultivating youths and the governor’s trust, Dr. Shuaib appealing to professionals, Dr. Maikaya consolidating grassroots, and Wadada repositioning himself within APC.
The ultimate test will be the APC primaries, where zoning, money, godfathers, and new defectors will collide with youth activism and technocratic narratives.
In the words of a political pundits, Abdul Kareem Ismailia, “this election will decide more than the next governor. It will decide whether Nasarawa politics is still about zoning and godfathers, or whether the grammar is changing toward competence, defectors, and open competition.”
Whichever way it swings, the 2027 governorship election promises to be the most consequential and unpredictable in Nasarawa’s history.
