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With Okorie Uguru
The United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UN Tourism) has released the first quarter of the year’s global tourism report. According to the latest data from UN Tourism, some 307 million tourists travelled internationally in the first quarter of 2026, about six million more than the same period of 2025. While the start of the year saw sustained travel demand overall (+2.5 percent cumulative growth in January and February), the Middle East conflict impacted performance in March (+0.4 percent).
The conflict is expected to reduce growth in international arrivals by one to two percentage points below UN Tourism’s initial forecast of three per cent to four per cent for 2026, depending on the conflict’s duration and scope. Aside from disruptions in flights to, from and within the Middle East and effects on traveller confidence, the spike in oil prices and jet fuel shortage in some markets is increasing air fares and reducing flight capacity also in other regions. More expensive travel coupled with uncertainty about air connectivity, could redirect demand towards closer tourism destinations while also affecting overall travel demand.
UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said: “The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting travel patterns well beyond the region itself, including rising inflation, particularly in transport and accommodation. This is placing pressure on travellers, businesses and destinations alike. Even amid this uncertainty, international tourism continued to show resilience in the first quarter of 2026, with 307 million people travelling internationally, a two per cent increase on last year. At a time of growing geopolitical and economic pressure, this reinforces tourism’s wider role in supporting economies, creating opportunity and sustaining communities far beyond the sector itself.”
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Arrivals in Africa (plus four per cent) continued to grow in the first quarter 2026, with North Africa recording a four per cent increase supported by strong double-digit figures in March (plus 18 percent). Arrivals in Sub-Saharan Africa also increased four percent in the first quarter of the year.
Europe, the world’s largest travel destination region, saw over 130 million international tourists in the first quarter 2026, a four per cent increase, building on the strong momentum of 2025 (plus five per cent). Some destinations benefited from the redirection of tourism flows. Southern Mediterranean Europe and Northern Europe both saw a four per cent increase in arrivals in the first quarter 2026, while Central Eastern Europe (plus six per cent) continued its recovery.
Asia and the Pacific recorded three per cent growth this first quarter, somewhat slower than expected due to mixed performance among destinations. Strong results were recorded in February (plus nine per cent) but were more moderate in March (plus two per cent), as disruptions affecting Middle Eastern air hubs contributed to a 27-per cent decline in South Asia. Oceania (plus nine per cent) and North-East Asia (plus five per cent) saw particularly robust results in Q1 2026. Overall, arrivals in Asia remained 11 percent below pre-pandemic values (89 percent of first quarter 2019 levels).
The Americas recorded two per cent more international arrivals this first quarter of 2026, with strong growth in Central America (+18 per cent) but weaker in South America (minus one per cent).
In the Middle East arrivals dropped 14 per cent in Q1 2026, impacted by the conflict. Several Gulf destinations recorded strong declines this quarter, while Egypt (+16 per cent) saw a robust increase in arrivals. This follows a strong rebound in the Middle East after the pandemic, with arrivals in 2025 climbing 40 per cent above 2019 levels.
Among destinations reporting growth in arrivals for the first three months of 2026, the best performers include: Paraguay (+46 per cent), New Caledonia (+45 per cent), El Salvador (+43 per cent), Mongolia (+39 per cent), Palau (+37 per cent) and Uzbekistan (+37 per cent). In terms of receipts, several countries reported double-digit growth in Q1 2026, among which Pakistan (+60 per cent), the Republic of Korea (+38 per cent), Morocco (+24 per cent), Brunei (+22 per cent) and Brazil (+12per cent).
