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Nigeria’s inflation eased sharply in November, providing relief to consumers and lending support to President Bola Tinubu’s plan to stabilise Africa’s largest economy after more than a year of elevated price pressures.
Headline inflation slowed to 14.45 per cent year on year (y/y) in November, down from 16.05% in October, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The 160-basis-point decline brings inflation close to Tinubu’s 15 per cent target for the end of 2025, outlined in the government’s “Budget of Restoration.”
On a month-on-month (m/m) basis, however, consumer prices continued to rise, increasing 1.22 per cent compared with a 0.93 per cent gain in October, underscoring that while inflationary pressures are easing, price levels remain elevated.
The disinflation was driven primarily by a moderation in food prices. Food inflation slowed to 11.08 per cent y/y, down from 13.12 per cent in the previous month, reflecting improved harvest supply and a relatively stable currency environment. Monthly food inflation, however, rebounded to 1.13 per cent, following a contraction in October, as prices of staples such as tomatoes, cassava, onions, eggs, pepper, crayfish and melon seeds rose.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile farm produce and energy prices, also declined, easing to 18.04 per cent y/y from 18.69 per cent in October. On a monthly basis, core inflation slowed to 1.28 per cent, suggesting that underlying price pressures across housing, transport and services are gradually moderating. The latest inflation reading aligns with the government’s broader macroeconomic objectives outlined in the 2025 budget, which targets inflation of 15–16 per cent, stronger economic growth and exchange-rate stability around N1,500/$1.
President Tinubu reiterated the inflation goal during his presentation of the 2025 Appropriation Bill to the National Assembly in December and again in his New Year address, framing price stability as central to restoring purchasing power and investor confidence.
Commenting, economists say the cooling trend reflects a combination of supply-side improvements and delayed effects from earlier price shocks.
Specifically, Chief Executive Officer, Economic Associates, Ayo Teriba, said the slowdown in inflation is largely a lag effect rather than the direct result of Nigeria’s recent statistical rebasing.
Nigeria rebased its Consumer Price Index (CPI) in early 2025, shifting the base year to 2024 and updating consumption weights. The exercise resulted in a sharp statistical drop in headline inflation to 24.48 per cent in January from 34.8 per cent in December 2024, after which inflation has trended lower, with the exception of February.
Analysts at Meristem said easing inflationary pressures were driven by lingering harvest effects on food supply and a relatively stable foreign-exchange market, though they cautioned that risks remain from fuel costs, logistics challenges and potential currency volatility.
Looking ahead, Teriba projects that Nigeria’s inflation could slow to single digits by January 2026, as base effects, post-holiday price normalization and sustained macroeconomic stability further temper price growth.
