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THE public’s notions of what a President should be are almost always, affected by what is happening in their daily lives. Matter of fact, a country suffering from social, security and economic crises, where millions of its citizens are poor and vulnerable, wants a public leader, not a private schemer or an evasive manipulator. You see, shifting expectations often produce shifting perceptions. That’s why, sometimes a cynical political player adept at amassing power becomes a man of shaggy quality.
In the early days of his political career, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, now President of Nigeria, shaped a public image of himself as a consummate politician who could produce something for everyone without cost to anyone. He also created expectations that only a deft, consummate administrator could sustain. But time has proved that he’s yet to sustain these qualities. To say this is not to suggest that Tinubu is ill-suited to be President. The point here is that, between the time he was a Senator, later Governor of Lagos state, and now as President, he seems to have undergone a sea change, turning into the opposite of what he and his handlers portrayed him to be.
Common purpose and honesty are essential for the development of mutual trust. It must be earned. Sadly, in a little more than two years that he has been the occupant of the highest office in Nigeria, common purpose seems to have vanished and replaced with half-truths in the face of realities. What we see now is what American writer and humorist, Mark Twain called “Lies, damn lies, and statistics”. This highlights how different types of untruths can be used to obscure or distort the truth. Half-truths are deceptive statements that include partial or manipulated facts to serve a specific agenda.
A week ago, President Tinubu received stakeholders who called themselves ‘The Buhari Organisation’ at the Presidential Villa in Abuja. Facial muscles frozen, except for the simpering smile. It was an image of feigned propriety about Nigerian economy. He told them what they wanted to hear, what would make them stand with him as the next election approaches. He told them that Nigeria under his leadership has met its revenue target for 2025 ahead of schedule through the non-oil sector, stressing that Nigeria would no longer rely on borrowing to fund its budget. His words, “today I can stand before you to brag: we have got our revenue target for the year, despite external pressures, including actions from President Donald Trump of United States of America”.
He also claimed that the “exchange rate has stabilised after initial turbulence”, and that the naira has appreciated significantly from over “N1,900/$1 when he was sworn in, to now N1,450/$ following the harmonisation of the foreign exchange(fx) window. “Today, nobody is trading pieces of paper for exchange rate anymore”, he boasted. The problem is that, the more you peddle lies, the more you tend to believe your own lies, and perhaps deceive the public. Tinubu did not meet an exchange rate at N1,900/$1. It was N1,465/$1. But that’s a small matter in the ledger of half-truths. The international community, especially foreign lenders and investors that are closely monitoring the performance of Nigerian economy. Claims of economic growth are carefully analysed.
Barely a day after claiming that the economy has stabilised, the presidency announced that the federal government is seeking fresh $1.75bn World Bank loan. This is in spite of the reported 40.5 percent surge in non-oil revenue for the first eight months of 2025. If, indeed, the administration has excess projected revenue four months before the end of the financial year, why seek fresh loans to fund the gaps in key sectors of the economy? Why not deploy the excess revenue to close these infrastructure gaps?What the President told members of The Buhari Organisation last Tuesday was a regurgitation of what he told APC Governors three months ago to mark two years of his administration.
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He told the 14th National Executive Committee of the APC at the Banquet Hall of the State House, Abuja that he has stabilised the economy through key economic reforms introduced in recent times. For example, he cited N14.9trn in revenue collected by the Federal Inland Revenue Service(FIRS) from January -June, 2025. He said the amount represents 43 percent increase compared to what the agency generated in the corresponding period of 2024. While half-truth does is that it hides and misleads, but like a bikini, truth reveals the whole story. Take this analogy: a company can highlight record profits while ignoring that the growth it is claiming came at the cost of major layoffs, a selective presentation that creates a misleading narration. That’s exactly what the President did last week. Hiding the facts perpetuate half-truths. The question is: Is Nigeria’s economy stabilised as the President had claimed? Interestingly, the World Bank has criteria for measuring whether an economy is performing or not. These indices include inflation rate, debt profile, exchange rate, Gross Domestic Product(GDP) ,energy stability, security, Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises(MSMEs) prosperity, and national income distribution. Inflation in Nigeria has increased by 55 percent since June 2023, up until December 2024.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) also shows that Consumer Price Index(CPI) that measures the price of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households stood at an average of 22.41 percent in the last two years. Between May 2023 and July 2025, inflation has soared by an average of 33.5 percent, 18 years high. Though it has moderated in recent months, that has not reflected in the prices of goods in the market, as prices of essential items remain high. Experts say this is mainly due to subsidy removal and the ‘floating’ of the exchange rate.
According to the World Bank and other financial institutions, a single digit inflation is a key indicator of economic growth, while a double-digit inflation is considered as disruptive to economic stability, hindering growth and impacting negatively on the welfare of the people. That means that Nigeria’s current inflation rate of 21.30 percent is seen as high and far from stabilising a volatile economy. It’s even higher than the average African and Sub-saharan countries. What about debt profile? When Tinubu took over from Buhari, Nigeria’s total debt was N87.3trn.
Data from the Debt Management Office(DMO) shows Nigeria’s debt stock has reached N149trn as of June, 2025. This represents 80 percent increase in two years. With recent borrowings in recent months, economists fear it could reach all-time high by end of 2025, as external borrowing seems to have become a ‘new normal’. After the NBS rebased the GDP to capture the informal sector, Nigeria’s GDP rose to N372.8trn in 2024 from N314trn in 2023. Despite the rebasing which expanded the GDP, Nigeria is backward, ranked just 4th in Africa. South Africa is largest in GDP, followed by Egypt and Algeria. Nigeria was the largest economy in Africa in 2014, with GDP estimated at over $500bn.
Nigeria needs to achieve a 7 percent annual GDP growth to stabilise the economy. For 2025, Nigeria’s economic growth is projected at 3.4 percent. Taken together, all the key economic parameters that determine an economy in good shape is missing. The president’s eyes are on re-election, not on governance, . whatever it will take to achieve that, including demagoguery, is considered fair or part of the power game and the complexity of one man’s ambition. Do our leaders factor in voters role in election outcome? It doesn’t approximate to James Carville(Bill Clinton’s political adviser in 1992 presidential election) catchphrase, “It’s the Economy, Stupid”! Is President Tinubu thinking that the state of the economy and its effect on voters’ personal finances should be a primary concern that may drive their decisions in 2027? Or is he and his party living under the illusion that regardless of the falsehoods about the economy and the hardship in the country, his re-election is fait accompli, a done deal?
