Follow Us on Google
ELECTION in the oil rich Bayelsa state in the Niger Delta is not remarkably different from other states in Nigeria. In the main, it provides an unusual opportunity for understanding the interplay between politics and the struggle for power. As former President Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, a proud son of Bayelsa and statesman, puts it in his memoir, “MY TRANSITION HOURS’, “politics in Nigeria… is conducted like primitive war. All that matters is winning the election. It is so Machiavellian that the end justifies the means. All is deployed, both fair and foul means. In fact, it is a game without rules”. Jonathan’s fears may not be misplaced. But as the D-day feverishly approaches for the much-anticipated November 16 governorship election in Bayelsa and Kogi states, the expectation is that these fears don’t come to pass.
My focus today is on Bayelsa. Understandably so. All is almost set, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC) which has cleared 45 political parties to contest the poll. The stakes are high, again, for obvious reasons. Power is taken, not given. More importantly, is the desperation of the All Progressives Congress(APC) to ‘capture’ Bayelsa state, by either fair or foul means. It is a strategic plan by the APC if the party will remain relevant in the South South geopolitical zone of the country. Bayelsa may be used as a base to launch another offensive to take over Rivers state in 2023 having failed to realise that desperate ambition in the immediate past . All of this makes the Bayelsa governorship election perhaps the most tensed and fiercest political battle since the present democratic dispensation in 1999. Keep a watch on Bayelsa.
While it will be unkind to dismiss the other 43 parties contesting the epic battle on November 16 as ‘also-rans’ or just making the numbers, the real battle is between the ruling Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) in the state and the opposition APC. More specifically, it is an epic battle between Senator Douye Diri, the PDP standard bearer and APC candidate, David Lyon, a business mogul. It must be said at this point that governance is a serious human enterprise, not an institution for any young man in a hurry or a rookie, untried and untested. Human purpose is essential for the development of mutual trust. To aspire to be a governor is not a prize to be won, it is a duty to be done. The crucial question in the election is not just, between Diri and Lyon, who has a better vision for Bayelsa. The real issue is who will act to make that vision a reality. In that respect, as the candidates make their final push and arguments, the people of Bayelsa are ready for the truth, simply spoken. It’s about who understands what governance is all about, what it can do for them, and who will do it for the utmost benefit of Bayelsans. The key is performance, not mere promises, specifics, service delivery, not change, for change sake.
It’s between continuity which Sen. Diri represents, and change which Lyon symbolises. As governor of Bayelsa in the past seven years, Seriake Dickson has undoubtedly demonstrated enormous drive, shrewd intelligence and uncanny ability to get things done for the people of Bayelsa. His achievements/accomplishments are there for the people to see, despite the propaganda to undermine his record. It’s, therefore, natural that he hands over to someone who is familiar with his programmes, nuances of governance, someone he can trust to continue from where he stops, somebody who in his view, can manage prudently, public resources and consolidate on what he has done, and perhaps surpass them. Diri, the governor believes, is the right man for the task. The governor said that much last weekend during the state’s Thanksgiving service in Yenagoa, the state capital.
Sen. Diri, 60 years old, is not a stranger to Bayelsa politics. His record of service is inspires. He has learnt at the feet of many ‘teachers’ and ‘masters’, among them the former President , Goodluck Jonathan, whose administration in Bayelsa, he served as Commissioner of Sports. Diri knows that to succeed in life and politics, you need guidance in working your way through the informal channels of power, the major policy struggles you will face in governance. This is so important, because, political power cannot only be based on the capacity to gain attention. To win the respect of other people, you must give adequate attention to the needs of your constituents. Diri hails from Sampou in Kokokuma/Opokuma local government area. This is an area that has not produced a governor, deputy governor, or Speaker of the state House of Assembly.
He was the first Organising Secretary of the influential Ijaw National Congress between 2001 and 2002, Executive Secretary, Centre for Youth Development, and Commissioner for Youth and Sport in 2005. In 2012, he was the chairman of the PDP Disciplinary Council in the state before he was appointed Deputy Chief of Staff to Gov Dickson. He was one of those who worked very hard for the creation of the state. As a politician, he’s known to work across all political divide, provided it is in the best interest of the state. His contributions as a member of the House of Representatives for four years in terms of motions and bills he initiated won him accolades. That also counted for him to win the Senatorial seat of Bayelsa Central in February this year. He has a quick mind to articulate issues. The essence of gubernatorial leadership is the ability to connect and appeal publicly to large and widely different constituents at the same time. These are attributes that set him apart from the pack.
On the other hand, Diri’s main challenger David Lyon is the founder of Darlon Security Guards Ltd, an oil pipeline surveillance contractor to Nigerian Agip Oil Company(NAOC). It is a business that has earned him billions in cash, according to those familiar with the lucrative oil pipeline protection business. It is from this pool of cash that he has been dispensing patronages, philanthropy gestures and providing jobs to restive youths in the state and beyond. His business has brought controversies as well and made him look like a classic case of a double-edged sword that comes with liability despite the benefits he has brought to himself and some people. Like many politicians with godfathers, Lyon is beholden to the current Minister of State, Petroleum Resources, and former governor of the state, Chief Timpreye Sylva whom who was roundly defeated in 2015 by the incumbent Dickson by a margin of 48,144 votes, having scored a total 134,998 votes against Sylva’s 86,852 votes. Facts on ground ahead of the poll say Lyon’s party, the APC may be the Achilles heel to his ambition, even as his rookie credential could be another minus . Political pundits in the state attest that the state chapter of the party led by Jothan Amos remains the most unorganized and uncoordinated, ragtag group . As the Sun newspaper correspondentin the state, Femi Folaranmi, reported recently, aside Brass, Nembe and Southern Ijaw, where Lyon comes from, the party members in the remaining five local government areas are like sheep without a shepherd. This is not good news to the party’s standard bearer. One of the party chieftains in the state, Eris Paul(aka Ogunboss) expressed the same fear for Lyon when he warned recently that “Lyon’s popularity alone cannot win election”. Many people agree with him.
On Nov. 16, I foresee a close contest. But the odds strongly favour Diri to prevail. You may ask, what informs my prediction? The APC in Bayelsa state lacks the political structure and presence to adequately mobilise support to wrestle power from the PDP. The APC candidate lacks the talent, the experience and capacity to articulate the issues of governance. I don’t think Bayelsans will take a risk to entrust their destinies in the hands of a rookie. It’s a choice between continuity and calamity. Change for just change sake makes no political sense.
Altogether, all eyes on INEC and the security agencies that will be deployed for the election. They must acquit themselves against the backdrop of their below average performance in the last general elections. Former INEC chairman Prof Attahiru Jega, recently spoke in the same vein. Current INEC boss, Prof Mahmood Yakubu says the electoral umpire has no “anointed candidate” in the Bayelsa governorship election. We shall see. Will INEC be impartial? Let’s wait. To some, INEC has already compromised itself. This is as a result of allegation by the spokesman for Senator Diri Campaign Organisation, Mr. Jonathan Obuebite that INEC is colluding with APC to contract a particular university lecturer to recruit APC members as presiding officers to subvert the election.
As a result, PDP has called on the electoral agency to stop such a plan. It also called for redeployment of the Resident Electoral Commission(REC) in the state, Mr. Monday Udoh. INEC has denied all the allegations. Nothing less than a free, fair, peaceful and credible election in Bayelsa, indeed, Kogi as well, will be acceptable. Let the electorate be allowed to freely choose their next governor without any interference. Security agents on duty should be non-partisan. The outcome of the election will determine how far our democracy has evolved and what lessons that have been learnt after the contentious 2019 general elections.
