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Nigerians are deeply religious. They are always attracted to prophetic ministries where their futures will be foretold to them to guide them. Most times they fall victims of fake prophets and prophetic scams.
Happily, as regards the 2027 general elections, Nigerians do not need to consult prophets or soothsayers to know what will happen during the 2027 general elections. They simply need to watch with keen interest what will happen in Osun governorship election of 15 August 2026 to understand what will happen in 2027. Osun guber election has always been the dress rehearsal for the general elections because it is the last off-cycle election before the general election. It occurs within six months before the general elections when amendments to the Electoral Act would have been too late to effect in accordance with international protocols. This makes it a testing ground for the efficacy of electoral laws as enacted by the National Assembly. It provides a golden opportunity to test the laws in our electoral tribunals.
The locus classicus in the trial of whether the electronic transmission of results into the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV Portal) was mandatory for use for collation of election results was in the case of Oyetola v I.N.E.C. (2023) 11 NWLR (Pt. 1894) 125, after the Osun State gubernatorial election in 2022. The wrong foundation laid by the Supreme Court in that case eventually led to the undermining of the Electoral Act, 2022.(See the article ‘Elections In Nigeria: How Court Decisions Undermined The Electoral Act, 2022’ in Margaret Lawrence University Law Journal (2026) (Vol 4) (No 1) p 227). The Supreme Court held that the IReV Portal was a mere viewing portal, when paragraph 93 of the INEC Regulations and Guidelines for the Conduct of Elections, 2022 was very clear that the Portal was necessary for collation of results. So Osun State gubernatorial election is vital as a preparatory ground for the 2027 general election.
This article was written before the Osun State guber election but will be read after the election. It is written without knowledge of what will exactly transpire at the election but the writer does not need a prophet to predict what will happen, even when the writer is praying hard that such predictions should not come to pass.
The build up to the Osun State election is already characterised by intimidation, manipulation, rascality, violence, tears and blood. More than 50 persons have been killed so far in Osun, while more than 100 persons have been injured. Eleven local governments out of 30 LGAs of Osun State have been identified as flashpoints in the 15 August 2026 gubernatorial election. What this means is that almost half of Osun State is in turmoil because of the election.
The intimidation of the opposition parties manifested in the area of unprovoked arrests and detention of the opposition party leaders and members. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) raised alarm that the National Secretary of the Party, Gov Rauf Aregbesola, who was a former Governor of Osun State, is a target for arrest by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) at the centre using the instrumentality of the security agencies. This may have arisen from the unexpected massive crowd that graced the political rally of ADC in Osun State. The ruling party is feeling threatened by the possibility of a third party, apart from the APC or Accord Party, determining the result of the election.
In the preparation for Osun State election, the ruling APC scavenged for evidence to nail the opposition, yet scavenged for evidence to exonerate the APC Osun State members. Recently the Osun State Police Command arrested the Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Teslim Igbalaye, and five others over alleged vote-buying, escalating tensions ahead of the scheduled 15 August 2026 governorship election. The police spokesperson in the state said in a statement that officers recovered a cash of N4.8 million and other “exhibits” during a raid on Mr Igbalaye’s residence in the Oroki Estate area of Osogbo on Wednesday. Other recovered items, according to the police, are one Dynabook laptop, one photocopying machine, one printer, two voter cards and voter register covering Wards 1-15 in Osogbo Local Government Area. These items were taken by the police for detailed forensic examination and further investigation.
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How can one conclusively prove vote buying by the items recovered? Yet the Osun State SSG, who voluntarily submitted himself to the police after the search of his house, was arrested until the incumbent state governor, Gov Adeleke Ademola, cried to President Tinubu for his release. Contrast this with the revelation that the wife of APC gubernatorial candidate in Nasarawa State was found with billions of Naira which was shared to prospective voters. The narrative was formulated to mean that she was empowering the people. The Osun State SSG was found with N4.8m and he wants to buy the whole voters in Osun. Efforts were made to cripple Osun State accounts when the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) froze its account less than two weeks before the 15 August election.
In another breath, one Senator Francis Fadahunsi of Osun APC openly and reportedly threatened the lives of the opposition members who dare come out to vote for opposition parties in the 15 August election. In his own words in Yoruba language which has been interpreted by Yoruba people, he reportedly said: “From now on, whenever you see Accord members, kill them. I authorise you to kill them. They have wives and children too. This is a Federal Government election. On election day, even if they come with voters card, we wont allow them to vote” (see Davido’s X account)
The Senator was invited by the police, who released him after two hours. The police became his spokesperson when they told Nigerians that the Senator clarified what he meant by his statement. The Senator meant that his party members should kill Accord members with their votes. The ballot papers have become bullets that can kill voters. Some other APC party leaders also made violent threats against the opposition.
The Senator’s speech revealed the mindset of APC for the coming 2027 elections. It will be a Federal Government election, not an INEC organised election. This means that INEC will be a tool in the hand of Tinubu to conduct the election as he wishes. He had already secured an alibi for INEC for this potential INEC manipulation when he declared in front of the Catholic Bishops that INEC is neutral.
On election day, even if Nigerians who want to vote for opposition candidates have their voter’s card, they would not be allowed to vote. This points to full disenfranchisement of Nigerians who dare wish to vote for the opposition. It is the ruling party candidates or nothing. Any Nigerian who wants to go against their will to deliver their candidates at all cost would be killed by the authority of the ruling APC. This is chilling and an eye-opener. Tinubu had also implicitly endorsed this tactic when he declared that “all is fair in politics.” One can even argue further that Tinubu’s statement may have been the motivation for the actions of his party members in Osun.
Osun opposition leaders are doing their best to counter APC rigging and killing machine. The incumbent Gov Adeleke proactively endorsed Tinubu for the 2027 election. He publicly appealed to the ethnic sentiment of Tinubu. I am Yoruba, and you are Yoruba, the governor said. Davido, the governor’s nephew, who is a global music icon, appealed to Gov Hope Uzodimma for neutrality. He appealed to President Donald Trump of America for intervention. In his words “There are growing concerns about tension and the possibility of violence, intimidation, or disruption of the democratic process. Osun people deserve to exercise their constitutional right to vote freely, peacefully, and without fear. I appeal to the United States and the international community to pay close attention to the election and encourage all relevant authorities to ensure that every voter is protected and every vote is respected.”
Lessons have to be learnt by the opposition parties and leaders. They must forget the idea of cavorting with Tinubu’s government to seek his protection and patronage. The lion will remain carnivorous. The Bourdillion lion will not be any different. Adeleke’s endorsement of Tinubu has not delivered him from the power grab of the Bourdillion lion. I hope he will learn his lesson by 2027 if he survives the jaws of the lion in 15 August election.
The Nigeria Police Force should remain steadfast in its constitutional responsibility to enforce the law without fear or favour. No individual, irrespective of social status, political affiliation, or public office should be above the law. INEC must organise elections in accordance with the law free from executive interference and domination.
The entire opposition parties and leaders must learn to work together for 2027. Any opposition leader who disengages from the coalition ADC and decides to go solo in the political battle of 2027 will be eaten like biscuit by Tinubu and will be disgraced without consequences. On 2 July 2025, the opposition parties and leaders coalesced into ADC and unanimously agreed to run under the platform. ADC was the only party that threw its primary election open to all opposition leaders to contest for positions of their choices in the spirit of the coalition. If all the opposition parties and leaders make the necessary sacrifice by supporting the chosen coalition party and their candidates, especially the presidential candidates, Tinubu will be gone by 29 May 2027. This is the scenario Tinubu loathes and this is the reason for the war against the unity of the opposition. As Davido will plead “We do not want bloodshed. We do not want intimidation. We want peace, transparency, and a free and fair election.” This can only be achieved if Nigerians are ready to vote and defend their votes. May we have this prayer answered by God in Osun and in 2027.
