• How President Tinubu, Lokpobiri, Edun, Cardoso, Dangote, Lagbaja, Obazee, Mahmood, Obaseki, Aiyedatiwa actions will shape the New Year
By Omoniyi Salauden
Every dawn of the New Year usually comes with its unique events. While some of these may be natural, they are more often than not shaped by the character of the state gladiators who determine the direction of politics and politicking.
For the much-anticipated 2024, the story is not likely to be different, as the outlook of politics ahead promises to be action-packed.
Here is the list of movers and shakers of the polity who are expected to play their roles in their different endeavours.
President Tinubu:
In line with his Renewed Hope agenda, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has consistently assured Nigerians of economic prosperity and best opportunities after the pains of his reforms.
He reiterated this at the Lagos State House in Marina when he was hosted by Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu.
He used the opportunity to acknowledge the current challenges and hardship in the country, but promised not to rest on his oars until he achieved the objective of his Renewed Hope agenda.
At present, the regime of subsidy removal foisted on the country has made life unbearable for the greatest number of the citizenry who have had to grapple with rising food inflation, dwindling value of the naira, collapsed infrastructure, insecurity, banditry, and kidnapping.
Tinubu, however, said that the difficulty Nigerians were going through was meant for a better tomorrow. Comparing the difficulty of the pains of a child’s birth, they are necessary for the birth of a new nation.
Cynics are afraid of a stillbirth. He, however, called on states, local governments, and well-meaning Nigerians to join him to fight poverty, terrorism and reduce the number of out-of-school children.
The new fiscal year is going to be a litmus test for the outcome of his reform initiatives.
This is more so with the new budget proposal that is wholly prepared by his administration. There is cautious optimism that things may begin to look up especially if the policy objectives enunciated in the document are properly implemented.
Lokpobiri
All eyes are now on the Ministry of Petroleum Resources for the delivery of its promise to ensure a stable supply of fuel following the announcement of mechanical completion and the “flare start-off” of the country’s biggest crude refinery in Port Harcourt.
Although President Tinubu is the current minister of petroleum, much of the burden of responsibility falls on the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri.
The refinery was shut down in March 2019 for the first phase of repair works after the government secured the service of Italy’s Maire Tecnimont to handle the review of the refinery complex, with oil major, Eni, appointed technical adviser.
While on a media tour of the Port Harcourt refinery recently, Lokpobiri enthusiastically said: “Just to announce to Nigerians the fulfillment of our pledge to bring on stream phase one of the Port Harcourt refinery by the end of 2023 and the subsequent streaming of phase two in 2024. We happily announced the mechanical completion and the flare start-off on the 20th of December 2023.
“This heralds the commencement of production of petroleum products after the Christmas break. We want to thank Nigerians for their patience and trust in the NNPC to deliver on her promise and mandate of rehabilitating our refineries.
“This is also another landmark of the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration.”
According to him, the Port Harcourt Refineries comprise two units, with the old plant having a refining capacity of 60,000 barrels per day (bpd) and the new plant 150,000 bpd, both summing up to 210,000 bpd.
According to the minister, work is also ongoing at Warri and Kaduna refineries. All things being equal, these are expected to commence operation in 2024. All this will help to conserve the country’s hard-earned foreign exchange. But for now, the promise remains largely in the pipeline.
Aliko Dangote
In addition to the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries that are projected to commence operation in 2024, Dangote refinery is expected to come onstream to further give a boost to the domestic supply of petroleum products.
Optimism is high that the refinery funded by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, will transform oil trading in the Atlantic Basin and remove a lucrative outlet for fuels produced in Europe and the United States which are current key suppliers of refined petroleum products.
If the projection of 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Refinery is anything to go by, its operation will no doubt reduce the country’s dependency on importation. Reports say up to six cargoes or 200,000 barrels of oil a day will be supplied by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) this December preparatory to the commencement of its operation in the New Year as part of a one-year deal. Subsequently, the volumes in future months will be supplied “based on mutual agreement and availability.”
Once it is fully up and running, it will turn oil powerhouse Nigeria into a net exporter of fuels, a long-sought goal for the country that is currently almost reliant on imports.
Lagbaja
Insecurity remains a growing concern in the country. While the nation grapples with the myriads of socio-economic challenges, social security, banditry, kidnapping, terrorism, and insurgency continue to fester.
Just last week, precisely on the Christmas eve, some gunmen attacked 15 communities in Bokkos and Barkin-Ladi Local Government Areas of Plateau State, killing over 100 people and destroying about 221 houses.
Some stakeholders have blamed the growing attacks on the failure of the Federal Government to restructure Nigeria and introduce a state policing system as a panacea for the incessant losses of lives and property in the various states of the country.
The general belief is that the security agencies have been overwhelmed by these gangsters who are terrorizing the country.
However, despite the enormity of the carnage wreaked on the residents of the affected communities, the Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Lt.-Gen. Taoreed Lagbaja, commended the troops of Operation Safe Haven (OPSH) for their efforts toward tackling the spate of insecurity in Plateau.
Mr Lagbaja, represented by the Commander, Corps of Artillery, Maj.-Gen. Markus Kangye, made the commendation at a luncheon organised for the troops in Mangu.
Unveiling his plan of action to tackle the menace of killing, he said: “We are going to drop the number of troops on internal security and build the capacity of other security agencies in addressing all internal security challenges.”
However, Nigerians are expecting the army chief to go beyond rhetoric and evolve a workable approach to put an immediate end to the threat of insecurity in the country.
Obaseki and Aiyedatiwa
On the political front, Governor Godwin Obaseki of Edo State and his counterpart in Ondo State, Governor Aiyedatiwa, are among the state actors who will be on stage this coming year.
The two states, alongside Bayelsa, Kogi, Imo, Anambra, Ekiti, and Osun states are among the eight Nigerian states whose governorship elections are held outside the cycle of the general elections due to the outcomes of previous litigations.
The tenure of the Governors of Edo and Ondo states will end on November 11, 2024, and February 23, 2025, respectively. According to the schedule of activities released by the spokesperson of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Sam Olumekun, the Edo State governorship election will be held on September 21, 2024, while that of Ondo State will be held on Saturday, November 16, 2024.
Ahead of its governorship primary, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party in Edo State is already enmeshed in a succession crisis. There are warning signals that Governor Obaseki may be giving the same treatment as his predecessor, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, if his anointed candidate fails to command respect of the rank and file of the party members.
Apart from the festering crisis of confidence between him and his deputy, Comrade Philips Shaibu, there is also a growing concern over a level playing field for all the aspirants.
With this development, the future political relevance of Obaseki will be put on trial in this election. If per adventure, his permutation fails to meet the aspirations of party members, he will be faced with the risk of losing his political relevance in the state. Besides that, the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state is also lurking around to take its pound of flesh while trying to burrow its way back to the Government House.
In Ondo State, the newly sworn-in Governor Aiyedatiwa will be completing the tenure of his late former boss, Oluwarotimi Akeredolu, after which he can exercise his constitutional right to contest for a fresh term of office. How that plays out in the New Year will depend on how quickly he can heal the wounds of the past and re-unite with the forces that worked against his emergence as the substantive governor.
Months of Rotimi Akeredolu’s ill health and the intrigues that characterized the eventual transfer of power to him had created a big gulf between him and the loyal supporters of the late governor.
Now that he has been sworn in as the governor, his primary assignment should be how to reorganise the party in a way that will guarantee the support of all and sundry. Otherwise, he may end up being a miserable loser. This is a scenario Nigerians are looking forward to watching in the months ahead of the next governorship election in Ondo State.
Mahmood Yakubu
INEC has said that the bye-elections resulting from resignations or deaths of elected lawmakers and subsequent vacancies declared by the presiding officers of the National Assembly and the state houses of assemblies will be held on February 3, 2024.
He said that the bye-elections resulted from the resignations or deaths of elected lawmakers and subsequent vacancies declared by the presiding officers of the National Assembly and the state houses of assemblies.
The commission is also conducting re–run elections in 35 constituencies, resulting from the verdicts of the various election petition tribunals.
According to a statement by the National Commissioner and Chairman, the Information Voter Education Committee, Sam Olumekun, there are two vacancies in the Senate, four in the House of Representatives, and three state constituencies spanning nine states of the federation.
“Furthermore, the Commission is conducting re-run elections stemming from the 2023 general election, as directed by various Election Petition Appeal Tribunals. Currently, 35 Constituencies are affected by these court-ordered elections. While three cover entire constituencies, others involve only a few polling pnits,” he said.
He said that the elections will be held simultaneously on February 3. These coupled with the Edo and Ondo governorship elections will once again put the Chairman of the Commission, Prof Mahmood, on the spot, depending on how transparent, free, and fair the process is.
The nation is watching to see a departure from the recent experience of electoral malfeasances that characterized the last general elections.
Wale Edun
Wale Edun is another cynosure of all eyes. As the Minister of Finance and Co-ordinating Minister of the economy, the responsibility of ensuring macroeconomic stability rests on his shoulders. Despite the reform policy initiated by President Tinubu on the assumption of office, the value of the naira has continued to dwindle hitting an all-time low in the last quarters of the outgoing fiscal year, with the country facing an acute shortage of foreign currency.
Edun, recently speaking at the Africa Financial Industry Summit in Togo about further changes to the country’s foreign exchange market, said that efforts were being made to stimulate investment inflow to Nigeria, as well as fiscal consolidation plans.
“The country is now on a path to macroeconomic stability that will enable investment to flow and the economy to grow. When I say investment, I’m talking about domestic investment, from Nigerians in Nigeria, Nigerians with funds abroad in the Diaspora, Nigerians living in Nigeria keeping their funds abroad, as well as, of course, foreign direct investment,” he said.
Nigerians have been grappling with hardship since Tinubu removed fuel subsidy and attempted to unify the official and parallel markets’ exchange rates.
Also, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) collapsed the multiple official market rates to the investors and exporters (I&E) window and it adopted the ‘willing buyer, willing seller’ model.
Defending the imperative of the reforms, Edun said the economic adjustments were pertinent, but their benefits would take some time to materialise.
Whatever the expected gains of the reforms, Edun has the responsibility of ensuring that the economic policies of the government align properly for sustainable growth.
Yemi Cardoso
The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, recently sent jitters down the spine of Bank Executive when he announced plans for a new round of banking recapitalization for Deposit Money Banks (DMBs).
He announced this during the 58th Annual Bankers’ Dinner hosted by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in Lagos.
The planned recapitalization, he said, was in line with President Tinubu’s ambitious objective of generating a GDP of $1 trillion by 2030, with clearly defined priority areas and tactics.
According to him, banks must have a part in the expected $1trillion economy by 2030. Cardoso said that given the significant developmental role that the Central Bank would like the banks to play over the next seven years, it had become critical to demand their recapitalization.
“Considering the policy imperatives and the projected economic growth, we must evaluate the adequacy of our banking industry to serve the envisioned larger economy,” he said.
This has, however, caused panic within the banking sector, especially with the uncertainty in the Nigeria stock exchange. There is the fear that some banks may go under if the policy is implemented under the current financial situation in the country.
Obazee
The CBN investigator, Jim Obazee, is poised to cause ripples in the banking sector as he makes startling revelations of underhand dealings that took place under the watchful eyes of the former Governor of the apex bank, Godwin Emefiele, who is currently under investigation.
The latest in the series of episodes of the drama that has been trailing the trial of the embattled former governor is the allegation that he used ill-gotten wealth to acquire Union Bank and Keystone for himself through proxies.
According to the report, Emefiele used proxies to acquire Union Bank of Nigeria for Titan Trust Bank Limited, as well as Keystone Bank without any evidence of payment.
As a result, it recommended that the Federal Government should reverse the sale of the banks and also take them over.
This is coming on the heels of findings by the investigator that Emefiele illegally lodged billions of naira in foreign currencies in no fewer than 593 bank accounts in the United States, United Kingdom, and China without the approval of the apex bank’s board of directors and the CBN Investment Committee.
Obazee found out that the ex-CBN governor lodged £543,482,213 in fixed deposits in UK banks alone without authorisation.
Emefiele, who has just been released from Kuje Correctional Centre, after fulfilling his bail conditions, is being prosecuted for N1.2bn procurement fraud.
In his letters to the President, Obazee said he had completed his investigation into the illegal acquisition of Union Bank by Titan Bank, and was on the verge of recovering the two banks for the Federal Government.
“When we carried out the investigation, we discovered that some persons were used as proxies by Mr Godwin Emefiele to set up Titan Trust Bank and acquire Union Bank therefrom, all from ill-gotten wealth.
“We were able to secure some documents and investigation reports will lead to the forfeiture of the two banks to the Federal Government. We have completed our investigation on this acquisition and have also held meetings with the relevant parties except for Mr Cornelis Vink, who is currently hospitalised in Switzerland.
“Otherwise, we are on the verge of recovering these two banks for the Federal Government,” he stated.
This is a big shake-up and many Nigerians will want to see how things play out in the months ahead as the country goes into the New Year.