Yakubu on trial

A new story is about to be told about Nigeria’s electoral commission. The story, this time, will revolve around Mahmood Yakubu, the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Yakubu is in the saddle at a very critical moment in Nigeria’s electoral history. The country is facing a contest involving three major contenders for the presidency. More than ever before, the people are reposing a reasonable level of confidence in the electoral system because of the assurances of Yakubu. How will this play out in the long run? Nigerians are anxiously waiting.

Some eight years ago, the story was all about Attahiru Jega, the man who conducted the momentous 2015 presidential election. Jega, the master dissembler, had then rigged out the incumbent President, Goodluck Jonathan, in a most brazen fashion. Under Jega, Nigeria’s electoral history, for the first time, began to witness a huge vote bank from certain states of the North like Kano, Kaduna and Katsina. It was at the same time that we saw an orchestrated devaluation of the voting strength of certain states of the South, particularly those of the South East. It was also under Jega that we saw underage voters queuing up to vote on election day. That was Jega’s masterstroke. He deployed it against Jonathan and it worked. Almost eight years after, Jega’s rigging strategy has become institutionalized. Underage voters as a critical mass of the northern voting population has come to stay. In the same vein, it has come to be taken for granted that the North will turn in humongous figures at elections while most southern states will only be credited with a trickle.Jega was guilty of these infractions. But he is hardly being held accountable on this. If anything, he has been packaged and sold as someone who conducted free and fair elections in Nigeria. Jega got away with his manipulations for a reason. Some powerful Nigerians thought that President Jonathan was a drag on the Nigerian system. They wanted him out of the way, in whatever way that could be achieved. It was for this reason that Nigerians were made to turn a blind eye to Jega’s misdemeanours. The result is that today the man poses as a saint in election matters.

What will be Yakubu’s own story? Will he dribble Nigerians as Jega did or will he live up to expectations? This is a question to ponder. Since he took over over from Jega, Yakubu has never faced a major test. The first major election he conducted was between two northerners. The South felt that the North needed two unbroken terms in office so as to ensure that both regions of the country are at par with each other in terms of their occupancy of the office of the President. Based on this understanding, the South gave the North a free rein in 2019. The expectation from the South was that the North would hands off the presidency in 2023 and allow the South to take its turn. But that is not the case as we can see now. The North is as keen on retaining power in 2023 as the South is on reclaiming same in the same year. This set-up has brought about a ding dong scenario in next year’s presidential election. This state of affairs presents a challenge to Yakubu. In 2015, Jega, a Fulani northerner, caved in to regional manipulation. His people wanted power and he helped them to actualise the objective.This time, the South wants power and rightly too. But the North, strangely, wants to hold on to power. In what direction will Yakubu’s sympathy swing? Will he, like Jega, play a regional card? This question is at the root of all the jostling for the presidency in next year’s presidential election.

Yakubu, the demure and self-effacing chairman of INEC, has been giving Nigerians reassuring projections about next year’s general election. The commission under him has introduced new technology into the voting process to ensure that people’s votes count. The bimodal voter accreditation system is particularly significant. It is said to be the only means by which voters will be accredited in the 2023 elections. The innovation is designed to ensure full voter authentication on Election Day. These assurances from Yakubu are giving hope to Nigerians. It is the reason the people are looking forward to an interesting contest in next year’s presidential election. The people are expecting that their votes will count.

But this remains at the level of the ideal. Yakubu’s claims and assurances are yet to be tested. Will he do what he has said or is he playing to the gallery? Indeed, Yakubu is on trial. Will he get a clean bill of health at the end of the day? A lot will depend on him. At moment, he is enjoying the benefit of the doubt. But then, a whole lot of apprehension surrounds his actions and inactions as we move closer to the elections. One issue that is casting a shadow of doubt over his assurances is the recently concluded voter registration exercise.A few weeks ago, the commission under Yakubu told Nigerians that it has invalidated a significant number of new registrations for some reason. By so doing, the commission has dampened the enthusiasm of many of those who trooped out be counted during the recently concluded continuous voter registration exercise. But INEC’s claims and findings are raising questions about its objectivity and impartiality. The problem here is that over 50 per cent of those whose registrations were invalidated by the commission are from two geopolitical zones of the country- the South East and South-South. Many are asking why and how. They do not seem to understand the logic of the action. How come, they ask, that the part of the country that has very high literacy rate fell short of expectations in the area of compliance to INEC’s guidelines than the far less educated part of the country? That is curious, isn’t it? On this score alone, Yakubu’s commission is being looked at with a certain suspicion. Is this man trying to hoodwink Nigerians? Many are no longer sure of what he has up has sleeves.

Again, as was the case under Jega, a number of underage registrants were spotted in the new exercise. Yakubu said his commission has taken note and will, accordingly, clean up the register. But will the commission do so? What should Nigerians believe? Essentially, Yakubu is an object of suspicion. Discerning Nigerians have suspended their judgment over his claims until the end of the 2023 elections. Will he deliver on his promises? The people are waiting.