The World we live in today, known to us as the planet Earth, may never be the same again if World War III were to erupt. Tensions have been steadily simmering among countries with nuclear capabilities, with some showing an alarming eagerness to employ these weapons not just for deterrence but out of perceived threats or territorial ambitions.
Nuclear-capable nations are now spread across every continent, except for Africa, where South Africa voluntarily dismantled its nuclear arsenal after the end of apartheid and the presidency of Nelson Mandela. Since the conclusion of World War II, the World has become an increasingly chilly place for these nuclear-armed states and a bed of hot water for the non-nuclear capable.
Most countries that proceeded to acquire nuclear arms capability after the Second World War were non-members of NATO or USSR, and as such feared annihilation from belligerent neighbours. This is true of Israel who feared its Arab neighbours, true of India that cast wary eyes over China and Pakistan, true of Pakistan who feared India, and true of South Africa who was willing to commit mass suicide rather than give up Apartheid Governance over the majority indigenous population.
The disintegration of the Soviet Union set most of the East European nations free. Having abandoned their unproductive communist system of governance for a chance at Democracy, they remained wary of the Goliath in the east that has suppressed them for decades, Russia. Unable to join the nuclear arms race partly for economic reasons and partly for deference to the UN’s IAEA, they sought territorial guarantees from NATO. And NATO was ready and willing to accept their candidacy for one small price: commitment to Democracy. Today, NATO has assimilated the whole of Europe under its wings. The result is that Russia’s entire western flank is bordered by NATO countries except for Belarus (‘Little Russia’, a dictatorial ally) and Ukraine (a Western ally on the verge of joining NATO) with whom Russia is currently at war.
The Russian-Ukraine war is nothing but a territorial grab by Russia. The later wants Ukraine to abandon attempts to join NATO and remain under Russia’s influence, all of this in spite of the fact that Russia granted independence to Ukraine in 1991. The United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia, signed the Budapest Memorandum on December 5 1994, along with Belarus,
Kazakhstan and Ukraine. The memorandum affirmed Ukraine’s security and sovereignty in exchange for giving up its nuclear weapons (part of the old Soviet Union’s stockpile) to Russia.
What Ukraine feared and sought international guarantees against in 1994, had come back to destroy it in 2014 and 2022. Ukraine is now locked in a war of survival against Russia who is bent on annihilating the country and has threatened the later and its allies with the use of nuclear weapons at some point in the future.
Ukraine’s war with Russia is the nightmare of most non-nuclear armed nations of the world. That is precisely why smaller nations who have the economy to support the acquisition of such weaponry would proceed to clandestinely acquire it when their very existence becomes threatened. Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea fit into such category. Other countries may be doing so as of now without our knowledge. Big nations that still nurse expansionist ambitions are the cause of these quests for nuclear arms. Due to technological advances, conventional warfare is becoming difficult to win. The days of blitzkriegs with columns of armoured tanks and infantry troops trotting behind under cover are over.
Missiles, air bombardments with airplanes and drones now play major roles in battles. Precisely for those reasons, nuclear weapons delivered with intercontinental ballistic missiles (IBMs) look so attractive. In a previous article titled “FOOD BEFORE WE DIE” I wrote that “Russia may not stop with Ukraine. With the love Putin shares with Donald Trump, both of them may be preparing the grounds if Trump becomes the president again to bring back the old Soviet Union under Russian control and, as such, we might be looking at a new map of Europe without NATO and without European Union as is known today. Some of us have not forgotten that Putin played some part in the election of Donald Trump as the president of United States of America in 2016. It is therefore, possible that both of them may have agreed to make NATO obsolete and start the process of dismantling Europe.
With that in mind, let us look at the scenario that Putin is not able to take Ukraine completely because of support from USA and Europe, and also Trump fails to become president in 2024, then the fear shared by many of us is that Putin may fall back to his nuclear arsenal and, if that happens the World may once again experience another world war. This time it will be fought with nuclear missiles and bombs. With nine nations including North Korea sending missiles to each other, there will be nothing left of the beautiful planet as we know it because the radioactive fallout from such a war will render good parts of the world unliveable even for its unborn children. We know what happened in Japan from 1945 to recent. Some scientists have also posited that if all nuclear arsenals in the world where to be exploded on Earth, the detonation forces will be strong enough to knock the planet off its axis.
A similar shadow of conquest looms in the Asia-Pacific region, where if tensions were to escalate between China and Taiwan with its ally United States of America over control of the South China Sea corridor, a war could break out. This raises the question: Will China’s expansionist ambitions if it wins the war stop at Taiwan’s doorstep or continue further afield?
In the Middle East, Israel clings to its nuclear capabilities, preferring to mobilize allies in Western countries to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Yet, some argue that allowing Iran to have nuclear capabilities might bring peace, similar to what happened between India and Pakistan.
Fortunately, we have not reached the threshold for deploying the nuclear options, but it may well be in the very near future. One may then ask; “Why haven’t we had a nuclear confrontation since 1945”? There are no simple answers, but a few reasons are worth stating.
Firstly, the sheer scale of destruction when atomic bombs are deployed is unimaginable. For a leader to do that in this modern world is mostly incomprehensible.
Secondly, the after-effects of radiations from the bombs linger for a long time and since radiation is airborne, it knows no boundaries.
Thirdly, the principle of mutually assured destruction deters would be crazy leaders from engaging in nuclear warfare. For instance, a nuclear pre-emptive strike on a nuclear armed nation will not possibly knock out all of its nuclear arsenal. So, there will be retaliatory strikes leading to mutual destruction of the warring nations. In other words, there will be no winners, both will incur incalculable losses.
It thus appears that the main reason for acquiring nuclear weapons is for deterrent purposes.
However, we must be vigilant to keep our leaders in check, reign in their evil impulses when we perceive them sprouting and vote them out of power when the opportunity comes. People like Trump, Putin, and Kim Jong UN should not be given political power of any sort. When they appear, the free world must isolate such leaders. It is a collective effort and a duty of care for all countries on Earth. The concluding part of this essay will examine the threat of climate change.