By Ifeanyi Maduako
If Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu wins the 2023 presidential election and becomes the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, his presidency portends a lot of things.
Tinubu’s presidency portends that the Southwest geopolitical zone of this country will return to the seat of power twice within 24 years of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic democratic dispensation.
In a country which comprises six geopolitical zones, the Southwest would return to power so quickly after producing a president for eight years in the person of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo and a Vice President for eight years also, Prof Yemi Osinbajo.
Whereas three geopolitical zones: the Southeast, the North-central and the Northeast have not had the opportunity of producing a president in these past 24 years, the Southwest would take over the slot again. The Southeast and the North-central are the worst hit because the two regions have not produced even a vice president of Nigeria since 1999.
Tinubu as president of Nigeria portends that the Southeast (Ndigbo) may only taste the seat of the presidency in 2039. That is because after Tinubu’s presidency, the position will definitely go back to the North in keeping with the unwritten agreement of power rotation between the North and the South.
Tinubu’s presidency portends that there may be a restructuring in Nigeria particularly as concerned the number of states and local councils in Nigeria. Nigeria currently has 36 states and Abuja as capital. The North has 19 states whereas the South has 17 states. If Tinubu becomes the president of Nigeria, he may correct the anomaly to bring the regions at par.
Also Tinubu’s presidency portends that Lagos State may have a statutory or constitutionally recognized 57 LGAs. Tinubu, as governor of Lagos State, had created additional 37 LGAs from the current 20 LGAs. President Obasanjo refused to recognize the additional 37 LGAs and subsequently seized the local government allocation funds accrual to the 20 LGAs of Lagos State for almost two years.
Till today, those 37 additional LGAs have been retained and sustained by subsequent governors after Tinubu, which they rebranded as Local Council Development Authority (LCDA). The federal allocation accruing for the legal 20 LGAs are distributed across the 57 LGAs. With Tinubu as President of Nigeria, the 57 LGAs will be drawing allocation straight from the Federation Account and Allocation Committee (FAAC).
The North has more LGAs than the South with the attendant FAAC allocation, with Tinubu as president, this undue and unjust advantage of the North may be corrected as more local councils, federal constituencies and states may be created in the South to level up with the North.
With Tinubu as president it portends that the Chief M.K.O Abiola’s death saga may be revisited. Former Heads of State, Generals Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida (IBB) and Abdulsalami Abubakar may be called to question about the Abiola conundrum. Obasanjo, himself may not have a peaceful retirement with Tinubu as president.
Tinubu as president portends that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) may be dead in Nigeria. By my mortal permutation, if Tinubu becomes the president of Nigeria, he would rule for eight years. After his tenure, it would be the height of delusion to imagine that he cannot install his successor from his party – the All Progressives Congress (APC) that would consign PDP to another 16 years in the wilderness beginning from 2023. PDP has not been able to break Tinubu’s stranglehold in Lagos since 1999 and that would be the fate of the party if Tinubu rules Nigeria.
President Tinubu portends that Vice Presidents Atiku Abubakar and Yemi Osinbajo may never have the opportunity of becoming the president of Nigeria in their lifetime. Both of them may not be able to challenge Tinubu in 2027 for the presidency. President Tinubu portends that no politician may realize his/her ambition even as a councilor in any part of Nigeria without the consent or the express approval of President Tinubu.
In Lagos today, you can never be anything political without Asiwaju’s imprimatur. That would be the lot of Nigerian politicians if Tinubu becomes the president of this country.
President Tinubu would be too powerful as the President and Commander-in-Chief. He would be bigger or more powerful than the Nigerian state. He demonstrated his title as the national leader of the APC during the presidential primaries to the chagrin of most Nigerians who never expected that he would win the contest.
If Tinubu who left office as governor of Lagos State 15 years ago could still be far more influential and powerful than even a sitting president, then imagine what a President Tinubu would be.
*Maduako, writes from Owerri
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