There is the saying that ‘our strength lies in our population’. In many ways, yes. It is also true that our population can be a curse. In fact, Nigeria’s projected population growth seems to suggest the later. We don’t plan with our growing population in mind and thus questions what strength our population can mirror.
But how is Nigeria’s population the issue? Last year, I came across the United Nations, World Population Prospects population data which projected Nigeria’s population to hit 793 million by 2100 (medium variant). My initial reaction was one of denial. But as I continued my research, I came across some population estimates: human population 196 million, median age 17.9 years, fertility rate 5.67 children per mother.
A fertility rate of 4 children per mother means double population growth and a rate of 6 children per mother means triple population growth. Note the geometric progression. Thus, a fertility rate average of 5.67 implies that a couple (two people) will increase to more than 5 people (children) by the next generation. Now, factor this with a median age distribution of 17.9 years (young, sexually active, potential procreators) what you get is ‘boom’ population explosion.
If I still had doubts about Nigeria’s population growth projection, it was cleared after a recent chat with a friend. Using instances of her immediate family (mostly residing in rural communities), she said three have 7 children or more, another five have 6 children and many already with 4 and counting. The rather unfortunate thing is that most of the ‘women’ in her litany were still in their 30’s and some of them are already grandparents.
While the problem of population explosion is more in rural area, the situation in urban area is also worrisome. While at a tertiary hospital in the heart of Abuja recently, something caught my attention. And that was the number of women either pregnant or carrying a child two years or less. So, out of curiosity, I decided to do a quick count of the total number of women who were either pregnant or carrying a baby below two years (visual estimates) while I waited in the out-patient department. Of the 73 women that I counted, 64 were either pregnant or carrying a baby; a whopping 88%. Right there was my shock.
For our population to be our strength, we must think about today and tomorrow. China is able to harness the strength in her population as a result of planning. Canada in growing her population with migrants because of futuristic planning.
The truth is that our unplanned population growth has damning consequences. According to a 2015 research publication ‘planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet’, we are within or have gone pass four of the nine control variable that defines these planetary boundaries. And scientific evidence clearly shows that human activities resulting from growing population and changing lifestyle is driving these variables beyond the safe limits.
To conceptualise unplanned population growth, the large number of kids across the country that roam our streets are a direct consequence. Estimates indicate there are about 13.2 million children out of school. That is just one impact.
Uncontrolled population growth has damning impact on existing infrastructure. It means uncontrolled migration. It means increased number of poor people; literally meaning failure to achieve Goal 1 of the SDGs. It means emergence of new diseases and number of people affected by such diseases. It means smaller and smaller land holding for subsistence farmers. It means increased resource consumption. It means increased instances of resource based conflicts. It means large scale depletion of our forests. It means increased number of climate change impact victims.
Simply put, uncontrolled population has impact on the planet, our people and their prosperity. On the other hand, controlled population growth means a couple replacing themselves – having maximum of two children.
Unfortunately, most families in
Emmanuel Unaegbu
Abuja