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By Chinenye Anuforo, [email protected]
The country’s ambitious plan to inject fresh competition into the telecoms market through Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) is facing headwinds, as the Global System for Mobile Communication Association (GSMA), has warned that the initiative may struggle to survive without stronger regulatory enforcement, infrastructure obligations and commercially fair access to existing networks.
Two years after the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) licensed 43 MVNOs under a bold five-tier framework, only two, Vitel Wireless and EMOSIM, have launched commercial operations.
This slow progression has cast doubt on the viability of one of the most expansive MVNO licensing programmes on the continent and raised renewed concerns that the initiative may fail to achieve the intended impact of broadening competition, reducing costs and boosting connectivity for Nigerians.
The GSMA, in its recent market assessment, acknowledged that the country’s licensing approach is comprehensive and could have been a catalyst for innovation. But, it cautioned that without clear enforcement mechanisms and strategic cooperation from host mobile network operators (MNOs), MVNOs may remain largely inactive or collapse shortly after launch. It pointed out that the global MVNO landscape showed that survival is not guaranteed by licensing alone but by establishing sustainable commercial models supported by operators who control the underlying infrastructure.
The GSMA noted that in commercially driven markets such as South Africa and Kenya, MVNOs have emerged and sustained operations because they entered the market with strong value propositions, niche service offerings and favourable host agreements. In these markets, regulators did not need to mandate wholesale access; instead, MNOs welcomed MVNOs that complemented their existing strategies. This contrasts with heavily regulated markets, where high entry numbers often coexist with short market lifespans due to weak business foundations.
However, the nation’s experience is showing early signs of this tension. Industry findings suggested that several licensed MVNOs are unable to move beyond feasibility because they cannot negotiate affordable wholesale rates, secure interconnectivity on agreeable terms or attract the needed investment to build competitive service layers. The dominance of the established operators MTN, Airtel, Globacom and 9mobile means wholesale access remains the single biggest determinant of MVNO viability.
A senior industry source familiar with the negotiations who spoke on condition of anonymity described the current situation as a mismatch between regulatory ambition and commercial reality, noting that many licensed players underestimated the capital intensity required to operate even as virtual networks. Others expected the NCC to enforce mandatory access obligations, but the regulator has so far encouraged voluntary agreements.
The GSMA emphasised that globally, more than 2,000 MVNOs operate across nearly 100 markets, each shaped by different regulatory approaches and operator strategies. It revealed that Africa hosts 63 MVNOs across 11 countries as of September 2025, with South Africa accounting for 61 percent of the continent’s players, a statistics that showed the country’s more mature and commercially collaborative telecom environment.
According to the GSMA, the fundamental question is whether MVNOs weaken existing operators or strengthen the broader ecosystem. It said evidence from mature markets indicated that MVNOs typically complement incumbents by reaching new customer segments, driving innovation and expanding coverage rather than cannibalising operator revenues. However, for this complementary model to work, regulators must design frameworks that ensure sustainability and prevent a race to the bottom where unhealthy competition erodes the value of the entire market.
The NCC had projected that MVNOs would increase consumer choice, deepen inclusion in underserved areas and stimulate innovation. But telecom analysts warned that unless the regulator addresses wholesale pricing, interconnection disputes and access obligations, the framework may continue to underperform relative to expectations.
Several MVNO licence holders have reportedly paused rollout plans while awaiting clarity on wholesale terms, with some sources hinting at possible mergers among licensees as a survival strategy. Others are exploring niche offerings such as Internet-of-Things (IoT) connectivity, enterprise-focused virtual networks and specialised fintech-telecom bundles.
The industry source also stressed that the country’s demographic advantage; a young population and growing demand for affordable mobile services still presents significant opportunities. But without clearer commercial pathways, MVNOs risk becoming paper networks, existing only in regulatory documents and not in the market.
The GSMA concluded that neither a purely regulatory-driven nor purely commercial approach is universally optimal. Instead, it urged Nigeria to adopt a balanced strategy that recognises market maturity, financial sustainability and long-term digital inclusion goals. It said thoughtful regulation, strong market design and transparent wholesale access rules will determine whether Nigeria’s MVNO ecosystem evolves into a meaningful contributor to the digital economy or fades as another policy aspiration.
As policymakers, operators and licensees continue negotiations, all eyes will be on the NCC to decide whether to strengthen enforcement or maintain a hands-off approach. The outcome could determine whether MVNOs become the next major growth driver in the country’s telecoms industry or remain a stalled experiment.
