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One peg of Muhammadu Buhari’s campaign for the presidency was his feeling of the creation of a welfarist economy. With this, Buhari envisaged the possibility of lifting about 100 million people out of poverty. Well, he may have thought well with his seeming welfarist ideology, but the outcome now shows massive failure to transform lives and lift even a percentage of his touted figure out of poverty. His has become a most notorious spendthrift government.
On assumption of office, Buhari’s government created the Social Investment Programme. Initially, the SIP had four pegs, N-Power, which was to pay volunteers N30,000 monthly; Conditional Cash Transfer, which was designed to pay those considered to be the most vulnerable N5,000 monthly; Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP) under which we had such things like tradermoni, artisanmoni, farmermoni, marketmoni through which pre-election loans of between N10,000 and N100,000 were given out to mostly supporters of the APC (there is no evidence that these loans were paid back and government had expressed concern that beneficiaries were unwilling to repay) and; Home-Grown School Feeding Programme (HGSF), which aimed to guarantee a meal per day to schoolchildren even when the quality of teaching and conditions of learning shame the idea. Sports Minister, Sunday Dare, speaking for the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Boss Mustapha, at the official flag-off of Government Enterprise Empowerment Programmes (GEEP 2.0), in Abuja in August, said government spends N400b annually on the SIP. Some other sources put the figure at N500b annually.
Following this, the Buhari administration, through the Ministry of Labour, also created another programme called ‘774,000 special public works programme’ through which 1,000 persons were ‘employed’ per local government to, according to Minister of State for Labour, Festus Keyamo, do menial jobs at N20,000 per person per month. That programme costs Nigeria about N15.4 billion monthly and there is no established timeline on when this irresponsibly profligate venture will end even when it makes no positive impact on society.
In August 2019, Buhari created the Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management and Social Services. That ministry was at the centre of the sharing to COVID-19 palliatives. There are indications that it shared more than N280b to some Nigerians during the COVID-19 lockdown. However, this spending made no positive impact on the economy. In ‘COVID-19 Fund: Introductory Report of Fiscal Support, Palliative Analysis and Institutional Response’ published by BudgIT, it was stated that “Only N288 billion has been disbursed from the N500 billion set aside for COVID-19 intervention programmes under the ESP (Economic Sustainability Plan). Full details of disbursed funds have not been transparent to the public as expected on the Open Treasury platform.”
This is outside cash publicly shared by the minister during the lockdown and afterwards, mainly with shadowy data.
Now, the biggest spend in the habit of unrestrained squandermania, which adds no positive value to the economy is about to begin. By January 2022, government would have activated its plan to pay 40 million Nigerians N5,000 each monthly as transport allowance. This is palliative for withdrawal of subsidy on petrol. This amounts to some N200 billion monthly. No one knows how long this will last; N200b shared to Nigerians as transport support will make no impact on the economy. However, if you share this amount to the 774 local governments across Nigeria, each will likely get some N258m. A state like Kano, with 44 LGs will earn about N11.4 billion. Such amount spent on education, for instance, will make more meaningful impact on the state. It could go a long way in funding free education in many states. Sharing the same to 40 million Nigerians, which sharing data is unreliable and probably doctored, will amount to wasting the amount or, at best, servicing corruption.
However, there are reasons to argue, and believe, that the N5,000 monthly will go the same way as previous cash sharing under the conditional cash transfer, tradermoni, artisanmoni, marketmoni, farmermoni, COVID-19 palliatives, 774,000 special jobs scheme, home-grown school feeding, etc, which have been largely opaque and open to fraudulent administration. As it is now, Nigerians do not know exactly who the beneficiaries of the monthly conditional cash transfer are neither do they know who are categorized as the most vulnerable poor because they see many poorest of the poor still by the roadsides begging; an indicator that the cash transfer is not helpful in lifting anyone out of poverty.
My guess is that this is where government ought to think critically. One sure effect of the total removal of subsidy on petrol is hike in the cost of transportation. Its further effect is high inflation. Cost of goods and services are bound to go up as against salaries that will remain static. Further implication is that the minimum wage will be eroded by inflation and more families will sink deeper into poverty. This will render the N5,000 monthly palliative useless to those who may get them. It will not pay their transport cost in one week neither will it help them to buy firewood to cook whatever is in the pantry. The dream of lifting 100 milion Nigerians out of poverty will become a huge mirage and Nigeria’s rating on the poverty index will sink further. If this happens, public anger against government will rise. Agitations will increase. Labour unions will call out members on strike. Student unions will not be calm. And no one may guarantee a protest-free 2022. Is Buhari’s government and its ‘thinkers’ seeing this coming reality?
But I may be wrong. Government does not think the way many citizens do. Government thinks of the next election, not necessarily the welfare of citizens. The N5,000 monthly stipend may actually be vote-buying fee for the 2023 election. If it is able to buy over 40 million voters, the APC government would be near certain that the 2023 presidential election will swing its way without much ado. As it is, the APC government has lost the goodwill it enjoyed after 2015. With growing impoverishment of the people and failed purchasing power, it is obvious to the party that 2023 may be a turning point. But will it be willing to gamble its chances against a PDP, which now looks like a resurgent force? I doubt! So, it is for APC and Buhari to pull every necessary plug to ensure that it retains power in the 2023 election. Its sure bet is the 2022 federal budget. The vote-buying project will be funded from the 2022 budget.
Remember, tradermoni, artisanmoni, marketmoni surfaced and became incorporated into the SIP plan prior to the 2019 general election. So, the 40m Nigerians targeted to earn N5,000 monthly on the transport support plan may actually be the APC’s votes target for the 2023 presidential election. I will not be surprised if the targeted 40m are asked to supply their Voter Identification Number and Permanent Voter Card number as necessary requirement to qualify for the N5,000 ‘transport support’. They were requirements for tradermoni, artisanmoni, farmermoni and marketmoni.
Meanwhile, these wasted funds are borrowed.
