As Nigeria’s political temperature begins to rise ahead of the 2027 general election, a significant development has emerged on the political landscape: The formation of a new opposition coalition aimed at dislodging President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress, APC, from power.
On paper, the alliance appears promising. It unites several political figures and parties under a shared objective. But beneath the surface lies a complex web of competing interests, familiar faces, and historical baggage that warrants a critical examination.
The coalition was born out of mutual dissatisfaction with Tinubu’s administration, which has faced mounting criticism over economic instability, insecurity, and a perceived slide back into ethno-political patronage. Yet, most of the coalition members are far from newcomers. They are seasoned politicians with deep ties to the same political system they now criticise.
The only beacon is, unarguably, Peter Obi, the former Anambra governor and 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, whose clean image and youth appeal contrast sharply with other coalition members, including former vice president Atiku Abubakar, a perennial presidential contender, who has traversed various political parties seeking electoral fortune.
The coalition is an amalgam of ideologically disparate and, in some cases, ideologically hollow actors. It comprises disaffected APC stalwarts, ex-PDP heavyweights, and a few elements from the Labour Party. Their unifying thread is not a coherent policy platform, but a shared desire to wrest power from Tinubu.
Therein lies the irony: Many members of the coalition were, at one time or another, complicit in the very dysfunctions they now promise to rectify. This gives rise to legitimate scepticism. Can a group dominated by political veterans, who played central roles in Nigeria’s decades-long misfortune, suddenly transform into reformists?
Some critics argue that the coalition is not a movement for change, but a strategic recycling of old political actors, adapting to new political climates. With the APC losing popularity and President Tinubu facing dwindling approval amid rising hardship, these actors sense an opportunity to reclaim relevance under a new banner.
Yet, despite this baggage, the coalition is not without potential impact. Its formation has disrupted the comfort zone of the ruling party and rekindled hopes among opposition supporters. Whether that hope is misplaced or justified remains to be seen.
On a positive note, the emergence of a coalition, however flawed, signals a rejuvenation of the opposition landscape. In a democracy, robust opposition is essential for accountability, public debate, and electoral competitiveness, especially now that there is a tendency to a one-party state, as many fair-weather politicians and fugitives from the law are jumping onto the APC boat in droves.
Also, the coalition could lead to a restructuring of Nigeria’s political parties, creating more balanced competition and potentially forcing the ruling party to be more responsive and reform-minded.
For the electorate, especially those disillusioned by Tinubu’s performance, the coalition offers a sense of political alternative. This could boost voter turnout and political engagement in 2027.
With credible opposition on the horizon, the ruling party may be forced to govern more effectively or risk being unseated. This dynamic is critical for democratic consolidation.
On the flipside is the fact that many Nigerians view the coalition as a political merry-go-round. The re-emergence of familiar names without a clear reformist agenda could deepen political cynicism and discourage meaningful civic engagement.
The coalition’s lack of ideological consistency makes it vulnerable to internal contradictions. Without a unifying policy framework, it risks becoming a transactional alliance that disintegrates under pressure.
Similarly, the personal ambitions of members like Atiku, Obi, and others could clash, especially during the nomination process. Without a credible and fair mechanism to select a presidential flagbearer, internal conflict is inevitable.
Moreover, Nigeria’s young population, which has become increasingly politically conscious, may reject the coalition as another elite scheme. Their support is essential, and their alienation could weaken the coalition’s legitimacy.
However, the coalition also has some strategic strengths. Unlike smaller parties, the coalition boasts national reach. Its members have electoral footprints across Nigeria, from the North-west to the South-east.
The political heavyweights involved command substantial financial resources and media influence, crucial for campaign mobilisation.
The coalition’s biggest advantage is the public’s disillusionment with the Tinubu administration, particularly over economic hardship, fuel subsidy removal, and the naira debacle.
If well-structured, the coalition could project itself as a unifier of Nigeria’s fragmented regions and parties, promoting a message of national reconciliation and reform.
This does not mean a rollercoaster to success, though. Tinubu, the Asiwaju, remains a formidable opponent. He has deep roots in political mobilisation, access to the state apparatus, and a loyal political base, particularly in the South-west, as well as a thriving media backbone.
It is also possible that many voters may not believe the coalition represents genuine change. Overcoming this scepticism will require more than rhetoric; it demands a new vision and fresh faces.
Embedded in the movement is the risk of fragmentation. The possibility of internal schisms is high, which could result in a real and present danger of a divided opposition handing Tinubu a second term by default.
Additionally, Nigeria’s electoral landscape, where power is snatched, not won, remains fraught with logistical failures, voter intimidation, and institutional bias. Even a strong coalition could struggle against systemic manipulation.
President Tinubu and the APC are not without tools to counter this opposition challenge. If the government can stabilise the economy, lower inflation, and improve job creation, it could significantly restore public confidence.
Fighting corruption credibly, reforming the civil service, and improving public sector efficiency would go a long way in deflecting opposition criticism.
Proactively engaging with youth movements, student bodies, and civil society organisations can reclaim lost ground and counter narratives that portray the government as elitist and detached.
Demonstrating real inclusion across ethnic and regional lines, especially in appointments and key policy decisions, can weaken the opposition’s ability to use marginalisation as a rallying cry.
The APC must also reform internally. Managing internal divisions, pruning excesses, and promoting meritocratic leadership can reinvigorate its base.
Building strategic alliances with emerging regional parties and local power blocs, particularly in swing states, can help ensure an electoral advantage.
Crafting a clear and consistent message about Tinubu’s vision and progress, backed by relatable spokespersons, is vital. The government must seize the information space before the opposition fills it with discontent.
Offering roles or responsibilities to some opposition figures (without compromising integrity) can break the unity of the coalition.
As it stands, the current opposition alliance, desirable as it probably is, is far from the transformative coalition Nigerians crave. What the country truly needs is a movement rooted in principles, not personalities; driven by vision, not vengeance.
Nigeria’s median age is under 20. Any meaningful coalition must engage young people not just as voters but as candidates, thinkers, and strategists. Women must also be elevated from token representation to frontline leadership.
The coalition must articulate clear, achievable policy goals addressing education, healthcare, job creation, energy, and security. Empty slogans will no longer suffice.
The selection of leaders and candidates must be transparent and participatory. Imposing candidates through “consensus” deals will only sow division and discontent.
Nigeria’s diversity must be reflected in the coalition’s leadership and messaging to avoid regional alienation or ethnic suspicion.
The coalition should build alliances with civil society, labour unions, student groups, and professionals to bridge the gap between political actors and the populace.
Inclusion of technocrats and reform-minded experts can enhance credibility and provide the intellectual blueprint for policy reforms.
The opposition coalition against Tinubu represents both a political opportunity and a cautionary tale. On one hand, it could revitalise opposition politics, challenge complacency, and restore hope to a disillusioned electorate. On the other hand, it risks perpetuating the very political culture it claims to oppose.
To succeed, the coalition must evolve beyond a convenient alliance of disgruntled elites. It must cultivate a new political ethos grounded in service, inclusiveness, and accountability. More importantly, it must earn the trust of Nigerians by demonstrating that it offers not just a change of personnel, but a genuine change of direction.
As 2027 approaches, the battle lines are forming. But unless the opposition can build a coalition that reflects the hopes, diversity, and urgency of the Nigerian people, it may once again find itself defeated by the very system it seeks to replace.