The Obi-Kwankwaso combo

The political alliance between former governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi and ex-governor of Kano State, Rabiu Kwankwaso, is the rave of the moment. Their decision to leave the crisis-ridden and toxic, African Democratic Congress (ADC) to the newly formed Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) came like a thunderbolt. Many did not see it coming. The Obi-Kwankwaso (OK) political combo is the latest hot news in town. The OK coming is both symbolic and significant to the 2027 electoral contest. We shall return to this theme later in the article. It came with a big bang. It was like a spectacle. There was no drama about it. There was no noise about its coming. It came without hype and publicity. It came with a purpose. It came with a mission. Its urgency was electric.

The OK momentum has reverberated all over the country like a tsunami or hurricane. The National Assembly has witnessed the mother and father of defections caused by the OK political phenomenon. About 17 members of the House of Representatives have defected from ADC to NDC, alongside some Senators since Obi and Kwankwaso defected to the NDC to realize their political ambition of unseating President Bola Tinubu in 2027. Even the Senate President Godswill Obot Akpabio saw the current defections as signaling the death of the ADC. He jokingly said that all defecting members should henceforth write their names in one sheet of paper instead of writing individual letters of defection. The NDC is the new beautiful bride of Nigerian politics. What the ADC and the Labour Party (LP) lost is now the gain of NDC.

The OK alliance has seized the national political imagination. It resonates with the youths, women and the men. It resonates with the masses and the marginalized groups. The OK alliance has demonstrated that political parties are mere vehicles to contest elections. It has exposed the urgent need for independent candidacy in our electoral system. Obi and Kwankwaso have proved that individuals rather than political platforms matter most in politics. We learn that the ADC website almost crashed as supporters of OK leave it to NDC. Within hours NDC membership register recorded 10million or 15 million and still counting.  Individuals and mapping will determine who wins the 2027 election and not necessarily party structures and not about where the 31 governors stand with their 31 votes.

The NDC is the new honey comb of Nigerian politics. Many politicians like flies will move there in droves, including those left out of ADC and APC “tum bom tum bom” selection primaries called consensus.  No doubt, the defection of Obi and Kwankwaso has dealt a great blow to the ADC and the opposition movement ahead of the 2027 election. Instead of the opposition producing one candidate to face Jagaban, they will now produce two or three, thereby replicating the 2023 election scenario that denied them victory. The dream of the opposition occupying Aso Rock in 2027 can only be realized if they present one presidential candidate. With many presidential candidates within its fold, the opposition should better forget the Aso Rock dream and begin planning for 2031.

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) should not think that it is all over and that victory is theirs because of having the structure and incumbency factor. They should watch out for implosion in APC that will arise from the consensus primaries that will leave many members aggrieved and stranded. The stranded and aggrieved APC politicians will definitely look for another political platform to achieve their goals. Politics is about personal interest. Tinubu’s style of consensus or “Baba Sope” politics may work in Lagos and a few States in the South-West and South-South. It will be difficult to attempt such political praxis in the South-East. The Baba Sope philosophy is a stranger in the politics of the region. It is alien to Igbo cultural sensibilities. Former Nigerian President and political colossus, Nnamdi Azikiwe (Zik), tried it to some extent but it was resisted. It cannot work in the North where APC is fast losing its popularity.

It is not enough for the APC to dismiss Obi and describe him as a political nomad. Its description of Obi’s reasons for leaving ADC for NDC as puerile and illogical is simplistic and being economical with the truth. If APC definition of a political nomad is multiple defections, all the major political actors, including those in APC, will be guilty of that charge. All of them have migrated from one party to another many times. Obi is neither a political nomad nor a rolling stone that gathers no moss as portrayed by APC.

Those blaming Obi for moving from one party to another are missing the point. They are not even realistic. They know the truth and refuse to say it. Rather they should lay their blame where it rightly belongs, the APC and its camp of “scatter them, scatter them” ebulliently championed by Femi Gbajabiamila. The APC has not hidden its scatter them tactics as part of its arsenal to weaken and even obliterate the opposition and make people like Obi party-less before the 2027 elections. His moving to the NDC is perhaps the last ditch effort to remain relevant and be on the ballot in 2027.

Some observers of the nation’s political scene have pointed out that Obi made a mistake entering the ADC, a party promoted by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a man who said that 2027 will be his last chance to contest for the presidency. There is no way Atiku can yield the ADC presidency to Obi. He should have seen the landmines in ADC before joining them. Some people are even saying that Atiku may contest in 2031.

Now that Obi and Kwankwaso have migrated to the NDC, we hope the APC will not create another Nafiu Gombe and other laughable characters in the NDC to make the road rough for OK ahead of the 2027 elections. If Peter Obi had remained in the LP as some critics would say, the crises in the party will be interminable. The ruling party’s obsession is to make Obi not to be on the ballot come 2027. Let them remember that opposition is the oxygen of democracy. Without virile opposition, our democracy will die.

For the Ok movement to succeed, they must work, work and work. They must mobilize the people to come to their party. They must make their platform popular. They must sell their manifesto to the people. They must explain to Nigerians why they should vote for them instead of the APC. They must surely embark on massive voter education. There is little difference between APC, NDC and even the ADC. Above all, let the opposition unite and present one candidate before the 2027 contest. The opposition should not enter the contest as a divided house. If they do so, they will blame themselves.