From Romanus Ugwu, Abuja
The palpable tension that has pervaded Edo State in the concluding part of this weekend’s off-cycle governorship election so far indicates that the poll may be anything but peaceful.
The snippets of what to expect are clearly visible and manifest in a million folds. It was evidenced in the very deafening loud sound drums of war from the political actors.
Apparently, the factors fuelling the tension could be seen in the blunt refusal of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to sign the usual ceremonial not-implementable Peace Accord, and the petrifying protest from Edo women, clad in black mournful attires, to express fears, reservations, and anxiety over the credibility of the election.
There were also threats and counter-threats from the main actors to boycott the election, in addition to the selective dictatorial arrests or planned arrest of certain leaders and chieftains of one of the political parties allegedly pencilled down.
Some other visible indicators charging the political atmosphere ahead of the poll were the refusal of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to oblige the request to change the State’s Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC), the last-minute removal of the State’s Commissioner of Police, the unprecedented deployment of over 35,000 police personnel and the suspicious disbandment of the Edo security outfits by the Inspector-General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun.
The political parties, their candidates, and supporters have campaigned across the state, seeking the votes of the electorate, yet, those mundane threats have worsened the situation and heightened the suspicion over the possibility of the electoral umpire conducting a peaceful and credible election.
INEC has repeatedly reassured of perfected logistics and arrangements for the election with the distribution of Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs), deployment of sensitive and non-sensitive materials, and optimal functionality of reconfigured Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) machines and its Result Viewing (IReV) portal, yet there is still a thick cloud of doubts in conducting a transparently credible poll.
In his assurances during a stakeholders’ engagement to sign the unenforceable Peace Accord last week, the electoral umpire boss, Mahmood Yakubu, said: “Let me reassure stakeholders that INEC is ready for the election. INEC has so far implemented 11 out of the 13 activities in the election timetable. The remaining two are the end of political campaigns on 19 September, and the election itself on 21 September.”
The INEC boss however pleaded with the political parties and candidates to honour the commitments outlined in the Peace Accord they voluntarily signed, emphasising that adherence to the agreement is essential for ensuring a peaceful and successful election in the State.
“Once again, we are here in Edo State on the eve of another governorship election. For us as the election management body, I want to assure political parties and candidates that we will continue to play our part according to the law and best practice as articulated in the clauses of the National Peace Accord that we committed ourselves to.
“I appeal to political parties and candidates to note that it is not your signatures on the peace document that will guarantee a peaceful election. It is your commitment to its implementation that is critical. Therefore, as you sign, commit yourselves to the implementation and terms of the accord, pass the message to your supporters at all levels for compliance.”
However, despite his assurances and commitments to conduct a transparent poll, the inkling that the poll will be dreadful came from the State governor, Godwin Obaseki, while defending the decision of his party, the PDP, not to sign the peace document.
The furious governor complained bitterly that the police, responsible for enforcing the accord, are already acting in the interest of the rival party, the APC.
He also claimed that the police, under APC alleged manipulation, had arrested not less than 10 PDP chieftains perceived to be strong political opposition to them, including the incumbent Chairman of Esan West Local Government Area, Collins Aigbogun, arrested and whisked to Abuja.
He told the Chairman of National Peace Committee, Abdulsalam Abubakar: “You are very conversant with the politics of Edo State. You were here in 2020 that we had a very heated election. You know this is an off-cycle election and there is a lot of attention. Unlike 2020, I am very worried with the developments in the state today.
“We might not likely sign this agreement. This is the first time the person who is supposed to keep and enforce the peace accord is an active participant in creating a destructive environment. The APC has always argued that they may not be as popular and didn’t win in the last election but promised to use federal might to determine the outcome of the election.
“We thought it was just rhetoric, but in the last four weeks, we have had a situation where from the office of the IGP, armed gang policemen have come into Edo State to invade, arrest, and take away PDP members. As we speak, there are 10 PDP members arrested and detained in Abuja without trial. Few days ago, they came to pick up a local government chairman,” he lamented.
As if the ugly pictures of the toxic situation he painted were not enough, Governor Obaseki further decried that; “the IGP’s office came in, issued a warrant to arrest 60 PDP supporters, driving all our leaders into hiding. My role as Chief Security Officer of the state is being made nonsense of by the IGP.
“I heard somebody was arrested and I called the Police Commissioner to inform him. He said he will get back to me only to hear that he has moved the person to Abuja. Tell me, sir, how can we sign a peace accord in this situation?
“Clearly, what they are saying is that it’s going to be a violent election and that they are going to use the forces of coercion and intimidation to win elections in Edo, whether we like it or not. That is the message. We have no confidence that the police will protect us in Edo State during the governorship election,” he quipped to confirm the anxiety that the poll might be bloody.
If there is any little confidence the major actors had about the election being peaceful, IGP’s pronouncement banning Edo State Security Network (ESSN) from participating in the security arrangement for the governorship election, extinguished it.
Although Egbetokun promised neutrality of police during the election, he however warned that the task of securing voters and election materials rests squarely on the police, who will be supported by other national security agencies.
Cautioning that no private or state-owned security apparatus would be allowed to operate during and after the election, the IGP stressed that; “all local securities in Edo State should refrain from participating in Edo election. Activities of Edo State Security Network, which has been suspended, remain suspended.
“I reaffirm our commitment to a peaceful and secure electoral process. We recognise the importance of this moment, and the trust placed in us to protect the integrity of this election. We will remain impartial, professional, and vigilant while providing a level playing ground for political parties and their candidates.
“I urge all stakeholders to embrace peace, tolerance, and respect. Let’s work together to create a conducive environment for a free, fair, and peaceful election, where every voter can exercise their rights to vote without fear and intimidation.”
However, the assurances of neutrality and suspension of the state security outfit did not draw criticisms and attention more than the announcement to deploy a whopping number of 35,000 policemen for the election.
For many infuriated political followers, the decision was insensitive of the police chief superintending over an under-policed country, struggling and collapsing under the heavyweights and clutches of armed bandits, terrorists, and kidnap-for-ransom syndicates operating freely along Nigerian roads daily.
Reacting to the deployment, a political leader who spoke to Daily Sun in confidence expressed existential angst facing Nigerians, questioning the unnecessary importance security agencies attached to politics against the protection of the human lives of the ordinary citizens in the country.
“I feel so irritated hearing the large volume of police deployment for the Edo governorship election. Incidentally, it was announced the same week bandits operated for hours in Zamfara, kidnapping innocent travellers and even killing policemen.
“It was the height of insensitivity that IGP could not even fathom any security solution or counter operation measure to tackle the alarming increasing spate of kidnapping on the Nigerian roads yet thought it wise to deploy 35,000 of his men for just monitoring of Edo election. Really, there was a country,” our source quipped.
For the APC candidate, Monday Okpebholo, and his PDP counterpart, Ogie Ighodalo, it was almost the same few-point agenda of development, provision of security, industrialisation, infrastructure, education, and health among others. There were very few marginal differences in the mission of the LP candidate, Olumide Akpata.
Interestingly, the campaign grand finale last weekend was a gathering of heavyweight political leaders with Vice President Kashim Shettima leading the charge for the APC following the inability of President Tinubu to attend, while the PDP 2023 presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, along with his running mate, Ifeanyi Okowa, governors, were on hand to draw the campaign curtain to a close.
APC paraded stalwarts like the Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, National Chairman, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, governors from Lagos, Nasarawa, Cross River, Jigawa, Kogi, Imo, Ondo, and Cross River states, Ministers and countless number of legislators.
Expectedly, LP presidential candidate in the 2023 general election, Peter Obi, was also part of the Edo campaign to drum support for the party’s candidate. And lobbying the Edo electorate, Obi, in his short and sharp message urged them to vote for LP.
He sarcastically stressed: “You know things have become very bad under this government. There is no light, no water, no security, and no fuel. Everything in this country is scattered. What we want in Nigeria is change. We want to put food on our table, we want the government to tell us what they are using the money from fuel subsidies for, and we want a better Edo.
“With victory for LP, we can start to repair Nigeria from Edo State. We need to change the people who say they are bringing change. You must vote for Akpata, who is your guy,” he appealed.
From every indication, the Edo governorship election may apparently be a three-horse race, among the APC, PDP, and LP. Remarkably, the candidates of those major political parties certainly have their strengths and weaknesses.
They have equally doggedly crisscrossed every part of the state with their supporters delivering their electrifying campaign messages of good hope to the Edo electorate.
From the childless outrageous utterance by the former governor, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, to the gaffes, the electrifying campaign promises, intriguing media advertorial jingles, and the threats for terror in the state during the election, the candidates have tenaciously embraced the tape, in a photo-finish fashion, leaving the Edo electorate the choice of who pilots the state’s affair in the next four years.
But regardless of how the campaign messages might sink into the electorate, in the consideration of many political watchers, there have been growing anxieties over the possibility of a federal might becoming the deciding factor of the election outcome.
The bold handwriting is clearly evident, ranging from the scores to settle between Governor Obaseki and President Bola Tinubu over twin issues of vengeance over the outcome of the 2020 Edo guber and the clear lack of support from Obaseki to Tinubu during the 2023 presidential election.
Surprisingly, Atiku resurrected the bile during the campaign finale when he re-echoed the mantra; “you must show them again that Edo no be Lagos like you did in the 2020 election.”
Allied to the mundane factors, there is also the desperation of the national leadership of the APC to claim more states in the oil-rich South-south geopolitical zone using the state security apparatus already firmly under its control.
What, however, may not be controverted, from the realities on ground, is the profound anxiety that the poll may be marred by the usual electoral irregularities, ballot box snatching, violence, and use of ferocious political thugs with brute force determination to leave in its trail tears, sorrow and blood during and after the election.
By the time the coast gets clear, the main factors that will likely decide the outcome of the election will be in favour of the party with the largest financial war chest to outdo others in the vote-buying competition.
However, generally, there are signs that the Edo governorship election might be bloody.
In the perception of a veteran media guru, Tony Iredia, the politicians issuing threats against one another have inadvertently imposed on the subconsciousness of every peaceful and unarmed voter to choose between coming out to vote and staying behind for his life.
“In truth, those threatening each other are not joking because in Edo and perhaps in many other states, the reality, which we ought to reiterate, is that governorship election is not a game, but a war in which all is well that ends well, including the elimination of opponents. At the peak of the battle, history tells us that even the governor may serve as the warlord of his army – another word for party during Nigerian elections,” he wrote.
Giving a clear signal of what to expect of the Edo poll, Governor Obaseki, had, during the campaign grand finale, declared the election as a “do-or-die” affair, warning that the poll must not be rigged. Collaborating with his resolve, PDP acting National Chairman, Ilia Damagun, vowed that party members would defend their votes “with blood.”
Describing the election as an existential threat, Obaseki stated that; “this election is do or die. If they do, we will die.” Damagun on his part noted: “You have to kill or arrest all of us if you want to take this state. You may have gangs, but we have God. To INEC, we don’t want midnight result announcements. It is not a threat, but we will defend our votes with our blood. We urge Nigerians to focus on the state, and we promise that the PDP will continue to provide good governance in Edo State.”
The die is cast, and the state is on the verge of history again. Still, above all, the Edo stakeholders must adopt former president Goodluck Jonathan’s mantra that nobody’s blood is worth the personal ambition of any politician.