These are trying times in Nigeria, and the months ahead promise to be even more turbulent. Globally, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of endless, complex conflicts, severe economic battles between nations, and realignments of power as regional wars become increasingly difficult to manage.
At home, as Nigerians struggle with the negative impacts of President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms, rival politicians are already overheating the polity with intense politicking ahead of the 2027 general election—despite the fact that we are not yet midway through the current political cycle.
Politicians from the North have started making moves to reclaim power in 2027, ostensibly because they feel marginalized in the distribution of political and economic benefits. Many believe that Tinubu’s Lagos caucus is enjoying a disproportionate share of the spoils of office, leaving other power blocs sidelined. The northern political elite have historically leveraged the region’s strong voting bloc to exert influence over southern Presidents. A look back at the resistance of the 12 Sharia governors during President Olusegun Obasanjo’s first term and the sustained pressure on President Goodluck Jonathan, which ultimately led to his defeat by Muhammadu Buhari in 2015, illustrates this well.
Obasanjo himself barely secured a second term, saved only by intense counter-pressure from southern politicians. The recurring strategy of northern politicians using the region’s electoral strength to gain political leverage is well known.
Yet, beyond these power maneuvers, a few issues have dominated headlines more than the ongoing power struggle in Rivers State between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his former political godfather, Nyesom Wike. The situation has now escalated to the declaration of a six-month state of emergency, an outcome that, while anticipated due to the prolonged deadlock, was likely triggered by the recent bombing of an oil pipeline and the looming threat of Fubara’s impeachment.
Regardless of what people say, the Rivers State crisis cannot continue without federal government intervention; otherwise, the President would be failing in his constitutional obligations. He must intervene to restore some level of sanity in Rivers State, where a major breakdown of law and order appears to be brewing. The resurgence of militant activity, including pipeline bombings by Fubara’s supporters, threatens crude oil production and Nigeria’s economic stability. If this crisis is allowed to fester, the consequences will be severe. In a political deadlock like this, something has to give.
Former Presidents Obasanjo and Jonathan, if memory serves me right, declared states of emergency in troubled states where governance had become untenable. Based on these precedents, no one should blame President Tinubu for stepping in. Whether the timing is right is a matter of personal opinion. Reactions to a state of emergency are rarely positive for all parties involved, even when no viable solution exists. What is most alarming now is the reaction of the militants and their senseless bombings of oil pipelines.
The political class must unite in condemning these acts of vandalism because a return to widespread destruction of oil infrastructure would have dire consequences for Nigeria’s already fragile economy. Politicians must recognize this reality, regardless of their stance on the crisis.
Meanwhile, on the national front, the tax bill—which generated its own controversy—has finally been passed. Other political flashpoints, such as the internal crises within the Labour Party and PDP, as well as tensions in the APC following the defection of prominent figures like Nasir el-Rufai, are par for the course in Nigerian politics. These are expected battles as political factions reposition themselves for future elections.
Beyond Nigeria’s borders, a looming global economic crisis demands attention. The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, along with his aggressive economic policies, mass deportations and approach to the Russia-Ukraine war, could have far-reaching consequences. The ongoing war in Gaza, coupled with skirmishes with the Houthis in the Gulf, holds the potential to escalate into a direct confrontation between the U.S. and Iran.
Meanwhile, Africa faces its own conflicts. The civil war in Sudan and the crisis in South Sudan have created humanitarian catastrophes, much like the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel attacks that threaten to destabilize the Democratic Republic of Congo. Iran’s preoccupation with Gaza has allowed anti-Assad forces to make a surprise move in Syria, ousting Bashar al-Assad. Russia, stretched thin by its war in Ukraine, could only offer Assad refuge, unable to prop up his government any longer.
Back in Nigeria, the crisis in Rivers State is likely to take new turns in response to the state of emergency. How both sides react remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: neither Fubara nor Wike will back down easily. Each will try to push the other to the brink, waiting to see who blinks first.
The coming weeks and even months will be critical. But in the grand scheme of things, six months is not a long time.
• Ayodeji is a speaker, author, and counselor. He can be reached at 09059243004 (SMS only).