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By Adewale Sanyaolu
Billionaire investor and Chairman of First HoldCo, Mr. Femi Otedola, has projected a sharp rebound in the naira, forecasting that the local currency could strengthen to as high as N1,000 to the dollar before the end of 2026.
This, he said, would be driven largely by the full operational ramp-up of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
Otedola’s bullish outlook follows confirmation that the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery has reached full production capacity, marking a significant structural shift in Nigeria’s energy and foreign exchange landscape.
He described the milestone as a potential inflection point for the economy, particularly the foreign exchange market that has grappled with chronic dollar shortages and heavy import dependence.
In a post on X on Thursday, Otedola argued that the refinery’s ability to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol daily would dramatically cut Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel — historically one of the country’s largest drains on foreign exchange.
“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly,” he stated.
“I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below N1,000/$1 before year end is increasingly within reach,”.
Nigeria has long depended on fuel imports despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer, with petroleum imports exerting sustained pressure on the country’s dollar reserves and exchange rate stability. Analysts estimate that refined fuel imports account for a substantial share of annual FX demand, worsening volatility in the currency market.
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Otedola’s projection comes against the backdrop of modest gains recorded by the naira earlier in the year.
On January 29, the currency appreciated to N1,400.47 per dollar at the official market, supported by improved FX liquidity and ongoing monetary and fiscal reforms.
The Dangote Refinery announced on Wednesday that it had restored and optimised its crude distillation unit (CDU) and motor spirit production block after scheduled maintenance, enabling it to achieve full operational capacity.
The company said the milestone would enhance domestic fuel supply stability and reinforce Nigeria’s push for energy self-sufficiency.
Beyond the current output, Otedola also disclosed that Aliko Dangote has commenced a $12 billion expansion project to scale refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day — a move that could position Nigeria as a net exporter of refined petroleum products.
The expansion will also incorporate large-scale petrochemical production, including 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of Linear Alkyl Benzene annually — critical inputs for plastics, packaging and detergent manufacturing.
Industry analysts say sustained local refining and petrochemical output could significantly shrink Nigeria’s import bill, conserve foreign exchange reserves and structurally ease pressure on the naira over the medium to long term. However, they noted that currency stability will also depend on broader macroeconomic reforms, oil production levels and capital inflows.
If realised, Otedola’s N1,000/$ projection would represent one of the strongest recoveries for the naira in recent years, underscoring the transformative expectations surrounding Africa’s largest refinery and its ripple effects across Nigeria’s financial markets.
