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By Noah Ebije, Kaduna
The North should wait until 2031 before seeking to reclaim the presidency, in the interest of equity and Nigeria’s informal zoning arrangement, a member of the Board of Trustees (BOT) of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Anthony Sani, has said.
Sani, a former Secretary General of the forum, argued that since former President Muhammadu Buhari, a Northerner, completed eight years in office, the South should also be allowed to complete two terms under President Bola Tinubu, if the country’s power sharing principle is to be respected.
According to him, the zoning arrangement played a decisive role in the outcome of the 2023 presidential election. He maintained that it was the politics of identity and zoning that enabled Tinubu to defeat former Vice President Atiku Abubakar across much of the North during the last presidential election.
Sani said the same political reality would favour Tinubu’s re election bid in 2027, insisting that many Northerners understand that power should remain in the South until 2031 before returning to the North.
The ACF BOT member also expressed doubts over the possibility of Nigerians Democratic Congress’s Peter Obi serving only one term if elected president, saying the North could not rely on such a promise. While noting that Obi had pledged to spend only four years in office, Sani argued that politics is a collective enterprise rather than an individual decision, adding that political forces in the South East would be unlikely to support a voluntary exit after one term.
Explaining why Atiku lost the 2023 presidential election, Sani attributed the defeat largely to the zoning principle rather than the personal popularity of the candidates. He said many Northern voters recognised that Buhari had already completed the North’s eight year turn in office, and therefore supported the transfer of power to the South in line with the country’s informal power sharing arrangement.
In this interview, Sani speaks on these and other issues.
Sir, most Nigerians are actually confused about the court judgment that some of the opposition political parties be deregistered ahead of the 2027 general elections. Do you think this is healthy for our democracy?
If the deregistration of political parties is in line with the law, then I see nothing wrong in allowing the law to run its course. This is because multiparty democracy is rule of law, and nobody or institution is above the law. But if the deregistration would affect the practice of our multiparty democracy negatively, and there is an overriding need to employ a political solution, then that is a different matter. You would recall that when the Alliance for Democracy did not meet the requirement for continued registration after the local government election, a political solution was used and AD was not deregistered.
Do you see a handwriting on the wall that Nigeria is drifting towards a one party state?
I have read the allegations by the opposition that President Bola Tinubu is driving our multiparty democracy into a one party state. I have also read the same opposition saying the ruling party, APC, would be roundly defeated come 2027 because of hardship. Which one do we believe, considering only a strong ruling party can push the nation into a one party state? As for me, I believe that if Nigerians decide to make judicious use of their democratic rights and ensure that votes count, so that the ensuing leaders would be accountable, our multiparty democracy would not become a one party system.
The race for next year’s general elections appears to have taken serious concern off the rising insecurity in the country. What is your advice?
There is nothing wrong in what our politicians are doing, precisely because insecurity is on the ballot. Politicians are therefore expected to debate how best the insecurity can be contained. That way, they would drive the challenges confronting security into popular consciousness, thereby enlisting the public in the fight against insecurity. This is because the responsibility for fighting insecurity goes beyond governments to include the public.
United States President Donald Trump has said American military operations helped stop the killing of Christians in Nigeria. Trump made the claim while speaking at an event in Washington, where he highlighted his administration’s counterterrorism efforts and security actions in different parts of the world. What is your reaction to this?
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There has been no Christian genocide in Nigeria, which President Trump claims he has stopped, in the first place. Nigeria is confronting terrorism across the country irrespective of faith. And if President Trump empathises with Nigeria and desires to help the nation defeat terrorism, Nigeria and most Nigerians would appreciate it and thank him for helping to end insecurity across the country. But for now, we are still at the level of pleading and hoping that America would help end terrorism in Nigeria.
Some Nigerians are saying that economic hardship and insecurity in the country may cost President Bola Tinubu a second term of office in 2027. Do you think so?
I have said it, that a ruling party which the opposition hopes to weaponise hardship against and roundly defeat in 2027 cannot reasonably be accused by the same opposition of tilting the multiparty democracy towards a one party state.
What do you think should be the solution to insecurity in the country?
All the nation needs to do, for the containment of insecurity across the country, is to deploy enough security personnel who are adequately trained and equipped, as well as rightly motivated to secure the nation. At present, there are too many ungoverned spaces which non state actors take advantage of to torment innocent people. The government should also try to address the underlying causes, which include poverty, ignorance and unemployment. That is to say, both kinetic and non kinetic approaches should be ramped up for performance.
Some Northerners are saying that the North should wait until 2031 before gunning for the presidency. In other words, the North should allow Tinubu to complete a second tenure of office. Can the North wait this long?
I have said it several times, that as long as the politics of identity called zoning holds sway in the polity, the North has to wait till 2031 for the presidency to come to the North. This is because former President Muhammadu Buhari did eight years, and the South would also do eight years. It was because of zoning that Bola Tinubu was able to defeat former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in the North in 2023. The South also wants to finish its eight years by voting a Southerner in 2027. It is the politics of identity that has compelled Peter Obi to pledge to do only one tenure.
Unfortunately, the North cannot trust that Peter Obi will deliver on his promise, more so because politics is not an individual enterprise but a collective mission. The South East, which will not vote for a Northerner in 2027, will not allow Peter Obi to keep his pledge. What is more, because Peter Obi has not condemned the activities of IPOB and Nnamdi Kanu, the nation fears that President Peter Obi would pander to IPOB and Kanu.
What role can the Arewa Consultative Forum play for the unity of the region now that it is divided between its BOT and NEC? As a member of BOT and former Secretary General of the forum, do you think there will be reconciliation?
ACF is a seminal platform that seeks to promote socioeconomic development in the North through unity and peaceful coexistence. That the forum is facing challenges of leadership does not suggest it would lose sight of its roles. Disagreement between BOT and NEC is not new in ACF, or in any forum for that matter. Any time it has occurred in the past, the forum has managed it. I am therefore highly sanguine that the present crisis will be overcome soon. The situation is not beyond redemption, since ACF is more than its individual members.
Again, talking about the 2027 presidency, it is believed that former President Goodluck Jonathan will run the race. To this end, some people say he should stay off the race in order to maintain his integrity. Would you also like to advise him in that manner?
Apart from the legal challenge to the former president’s aspiration, there is a problem in the politics. The former president’s entry would increase the number of opposition splits, which presently stands at two factions of PDP, ADC and NDC. Such dynamics would not favour the former president.
What is your assessment of President Bola Tinubu’s administration?
In the management of the economy, the president has found the courage of his convictions and removed the fuel subsidy, and introduced reforms, despite the risk of being made unpopular due to the resultant hardship. Few leaders can take such a risk. I therefore rate him favourably, more so because no reforms can be without pains. The economy is becoming stabilised, and people are beginning to appreciate what the president has done. I say this because the results of recent by elections, where APC won most of them, testify to this fact. Please note, my comments should not be construed as being totally in sync with all the president is doing. No, I do not rate the president highly in his management of diversity. The government should be for all Nigerians, and not for the Yoruba alone. He is also not very impressive in the priority he gives to his promise to put an end to the prevalent insecurity across the country.
