Nigeria loses half of perishable food annually as costs reshape consumption, report warns

Nigeria loses nearly half of its perishable food production every year, with weak infrastructure, poor storage systems and worsening economic pressure continuing to reshape how millions of people eat, spend and survive, according to a new report released by Rome Business School Nigeria.

The report, titled The Food Sector in Nigeria: Consumption Patterns, New Business Models, and Emerging Opportunities, paints a detailed picture of a sector under strain but also rich with opportunity, as rising costs, population growth and digital innovation continue to transform Nigeria’s food economy.

Researchers estimate that nearly 50 percent of Nigeria’s perishable food output is lost annually, amounting to about 35 million metric tons of food waste. The economic impact of these losses is valued between ₦3.5 trillion and ₦5 trillion every year, driven largely by inadequate cold storage infrastructure, poor logistics and post-harvest inefficiencies.

According to the report, the scale of food loss has implications far beyond agriculture, contributing to rising food prices, worsening nutrition and reduced access to essential food supplies for households across the country.

The findings come amid growing pressure on Nigeria’s food system as the population continues to expand beyond 230 million. Researchers project that Nigeria could approach 400 million consumers by 2050, significantly increasing demand for food production, storage, transportation and retail distribution.

Despite these challenges, the report notes that the food sector remains one of the country’s strongest economic engines.

Nigeria’s foodservice industry is projected to grow from $12.37 billion in 2026 to $21.38 billion by 2031, fueled by rapid urbanisation, changing lifestyles, the rise of quick-service restaurants and the growing popularity of food delivery platforms.

Researchers also found that digital adoption is accelerating across the sector, including among informal operators. More than 60 percent of informal food vendors are now using mobile payment systems, allowing many small businesses to integrate more effectively into Nigeria’s expanding digital economy.

One of the report’s key findings focuses on the increasing rise of sachet-based consumption, which it describes as both a consumer survival strategy and a reflection of deepening affordability pressures.

With many households spending as much as 70 percent of their income on food, consumers are increasingly relying on smaller, single-use packaging for basic goods as a way to stretch daily budgets.

Speaking on the findings, General Manager of Rome Business School Nigeria, Olakunle Asunmo, said the country’s food consumption patterns reveal broader shifts within the economy.

“What is happening in Nigeria’s food system goes beyond consumption trends. It reflects how people adapt to economic pressure while still participating in a rapidly modernising economy. You see premium dining experiences growing on one side, while sachet-based affordability dominates on the other,” he said.

The report also identifies cold chain logistics as one of Nigeria’s biggest untapped investment opportunities. Researchers estimate the sector could be worth as much as $10 billion if properly developed.

Technologies such as solar-powered cold rooms, smart cooling systems and improved refrigerated transportation were highlighted as viable solutions capable of reducing post-harvest losses while improving market access for farmers and food distributors.

Head of Academics at Rome Business School Nigeria, Sam Igwe Okoh, said the consequences of food system failures are felt most directly by ordinary Nigerians.

“Food is not just a commodity; it is a measure of quality of life. When systems fail, ordinary families bear the burden through higher prices, reduced nutrition and limited access,” he said.

Founder of Rome Business School, Professor Antonio Ragusa, said Nigeria’s long-term economic resilience will depend heavily on how effectively it strengthens critical sectors such as food production and distribution.

“Nigeria possesses enormous potential, but unlocking it requires investment in infrastructure, innovation and human capital capable of transforming challenges into long-term opportunities,” Ragusa said.

Beyond storage limitations, the report lists unreliable electricity supply, poor road networks, insecurity in farming communities and fragmented regulation as major barriers slowing growth across the food ecosystem.

To address the challenges, researchers recommended increased investment in cold chain logistics, agri-tech innovation, cloud kitchens, financing systems and stronger public-private partnerships aimed at improving efficiency across the food value chain.

While warning that structural challenges remain significant, the report concludes that Nigeria’s food economy is not in decline but undergoing a period of transition.

Driven by population growth, urbanisation and rising digital adoption, researchers say the sector remains one of Africa’s most promising investment destinations.

Ultimately, the report argues that the future of Nigeria’s food economy will depend on how quickly the country can close infrastructure gaps, reduce food waste and improve affordability and access for its growing population.