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•Experts predict import hiccups, spike in fuel prices
By Adewale Sanyaolu
Energy experts have expressed concern over the reclosure of the Strait of Hormuz, barely 24 hours after its reopening by Iran.
Since its reclosure on Saturday, several commercial vessels have been stranded mid-passage, as the standoff between Iran and the US shows no signs of resolution.
The strait, which before the current crisis served as the transit corridor for roughly 20 per cent of the world’s liquefied natural gas and 25 per cent of global seaborne oil trade, has been largely closed since 28 February 2026.
Industry experts warned that the latest blockade by Iran portends a further tightening of the oil market.
The development, they said, has far-reaching implications for the Nigerian downstream market, with higher fuel prices expected in the days ahead.
Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Petroleumprice.ng, a real-time petroleum products pricing portal, Mr. Olatide Jeremiah, said Nigerians should brace up for higher fuel costs in the days ahead.
He said the earlier reopening had signalled respite for marketers and consumers, noting that the reclosure in less than 24 hours jolted the industry.
As a result, he said Nigerians should expect further tightening as the market responds to the reclosure.
He argued that the development has created panic and anxiety among marketers, as they closely watch the market.
He explained that marketers and depot operators are now watching with cautious optimism, as many are likely to hold back on stock due to price volatility expected with the reclosure.
He added that the current volatile nature is also a cause for concern for consumers, as some may want to engage in panic buying to hedge against likely higher prices.
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Also commenting, energy policy analyst and partner at Bloomfield Law Practice, Mr. Ayodele Oni, said that with the reclosure of the Strait of Hormuz, Nigerians should expect higher and more volatile domestic fuel prices.
Oni further corroborated Olatide’s position on panic buying, saying the government should communicate clearly to prevent such at this point.
However, he said the focus of the government should be on how to cushion the effect on citizens.
“In the immediate term, the government should consider activating a top-up of the national strategic stocks under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and consider tactical releases in the medium to long term, should the challenges with the Strait of Hormuz continue.
“Government should also tighten distribution, stop hoarding/diversion, and prioritise supplies to hospitals, power, and key transport routes.”
Oni added that the government should roll out quick, targeted cash transfers or transport subsidies for the poorest.
Additionally, he said the government should secure alternative tanker bookings, diversify suppliers, and stagger arrivals. “There is also the need to set more policies that could help fast-track the construction of more refineries and modular refineries to avoid import dependence.
“It is also pertinent that the government provides targeted support or conditional cash transfers.
“It may also be worthwhile to use hedges/long-term contracts and strengthen FX/reserve management to smooth price shocks.”
Oni argued that it may be worth investing in public transport, gas-to-power, and LPG to reduce household exposure. The government, he said, should also pursue regional diplomacy to keep shipping lanes open.
“From a fiscal/monetary policy standpoint, it is germane that the government prepares contingency budget measures (temporary tax relief or subsidy reallocations) and coordinates with the central bank on liquidity/FX support, monitors inflation, and protects vulnerable groups.
“In essence, the government may want to use PIA-enabled strategic stock measures and rapid targeted relief now, and accelerate refinery, subsidy, and safety-net reforms to reduce future vulnerability.”
