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The dynamics of perception and rating of elections in developing democracies are quite odd. In a rather curious way, the overwhelming perception of the outcome of an election in this setting is often inversely proportional to the fortune of an incumbent, say, a president or governor.
Put differently, elections in developing democracies are often rated highly only when the incumbent loses. This possibly, is an unconscious reaction to a nagging belief, nurtured by experience, that the incumbent rarely loses. Indeed, they hardly do so, not because of any stellar performance in office, but because, being in office and in power, as Ibrahim Babangida will couch it, incumbent elected officials in inchoate democracies have a Donald Trump mentality. They believe that the system is there to be pulled and twisted to yield the outcome they want. More often than not, that is how they play.
When therefore, the unexpected happens and an incumbent loses, an election and its conduct are hailed and celebrated. This creates an impression that something extraordinary has happened. More often than not in such a setting, the actual dynamics of the process which yielded the earthquake is lost sight of. Such now, is the case with Osun State, where the incumbent governor, Gboyega Oyetola lost the governorship election on Saturday, July 16, 2022.
The Osun State governorship election was largely not expected to go the way it turned out. Certainly, not because of the shining performance of the governor. As a matter of fact, Governor Oyetola was said by many to have performed far below average. As things go in the politics of Nigeria however, the State was reckoned to be in the kitty for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Afterall, Oyetola is a close relation of Ahmed Tinubu, the strong man of South West politics and the presidential candidate of the All-progressives Congress, a man renowned for getting things done in political contests.
The fact that Tinubu is running for president and need, not just the support but the firm control of states in the South West for a start, added to the urgency and importance of securing Osun under the gubernatorial control of his cousin. Alas, the gods and the people of Osun had different ideas.
Four years after Tinubu and the All-Progressives Congress (APC) literally pulled the nut out of the fire and installed Oyetola governor, the man who lost out in that contest has returned to claim what may have rightly belonged to him. For Ademola Adeleke, victorious at the July 16, 2022 election, his time has finally come. He must truly be a dogged fighter, even as his image belies that. On face value, Adeleke, cuts the image of a man given to living la vida loca, a jolly good life. He appears far more boisterous than his late elder brother, Senator Isiaka Adeleke, a very nice man who was once chairman of the Senate Committee on Electoral Matters. The governor-elect paid his brother a fitting tribute by dedicating his victory to his memory.
Ademola Adeleke’s perseverance, striking a timely consonance with realignment of interests in the politics of Osun State, ensured him victory at the governorship election. Without doubts, however, a major winner in the 2022 Osun State governorship election is the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
It was fitting and proper that INEC returned to Osun in 2022 to redeem a rather poor impression it created for itself in the state four years back. That dip of 2018 must have been a watershed of sorts.
A graphic tracing of the overall delivery of INEC at elections in the last two years will easily establish a trajectory that is on the ascent. From the governorship elections in Edo and Ondo states in 2020 to Anambra State governorship election in November 2021, down to Ekiti governorship election, the commission has been consistent in addressing its hitherto weak ends in the conduct of elections.
In Osun State, the elements and the commitment of the commission combined so effectively in a seamless delivery, such that nobody could give any aspect of the process of the election as an excuse for any projected result that did not come forth right. It was not always that way. It used to be the case that INEC easily and curiously lent itself so cheaply as the scape goat for every election loser searching for who to blame for failure. If it was not problem of accreditation, it was tardy voter’s role. Of course, there was the ever-looming menace of thugs waylaying election results on the way to collation centres. These now are receding spectres.
There are, at least four areas in INEC’s performance in the conduct of the Osun State governorship election that deserve to be highlighted for making the difference. Hopefully, these four areas which mark the commission’s attainment of stability should be guarded and reinforced to maintain the necessary standard and due comportment in the conduct of elections.
The first is efficient deployment of men and materials. The second is seamless accreditation of voters. The third is prompt counting and documenting of election result at the polling unit, which results are uploaded to the result portal, accessible to the public. These three factors are in the hands of the commission and it has acquitted itself creditably in managing them. Indeed, the performance of the Bi-modal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) left many pleasantly astounded. The leadership of the Commission must now be breathing easier. BVAS was beginning to appear like a problem child with recurring fever. How so uplifting to see the materialization of the promises on the device. There was no report of any voter who was not accredited at the Osun governorship election, and on time, too.
Now the fourth factor, which came through in Osun, but which is not in INEC’s hand, is security.
Giving credit to President Muhammadu Buhari is not something many Nigerians are used to. The reason is simple; it is very difficult to locate where to anchor such credit on. The deficits are overwhelming. In the performance of the security services at the Osun State governorship election, the President deserves credit. All that was required was a slight awkward body language from him and the security agencies will ruin whatever work INEC had done. Let’s face it, the security agencies seem capable at a slight touch of doing good or doing the exact opposite.
Over time, President Buhari has not indulged in monkey business at elections on behalf of his party. INEC is better for it. Elections are better for it. Poor candidates are worse off for it. That’s how it ought to be. The ultimate test is seven months away. So, help us God.
