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From Adanna Nnamani, Abuja
Global crude oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fears of supply disruptions in key oil-producing regions.
The international oil benchmark, Brent crude, recently climbed to around $102 per barrel after peaking near $119.50, while the United States benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), rose to about $100 per barrel in the latest trading session.
Market data also indicates that Brent crude, has been trading close to $99 per barrel, reflecting a sharp increase from previous weeks as investors react to growing instability in global energy supply routes.
The price rally follows intensifying conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel, which has threatened critical oil infrastructure and shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor through which about 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply passes daily.
Analysts say the disruptions have heightened fears of supply shortages, with some oil-producing countries in the Gulf reportedly reducing output due to logistical constraints and security concerns.
The surge in global crude prices has triggered volatility across financial markets and raised concerns about rising fuel costs and inflation worldwide. Economists warn that sustained high oil prices could increase transportation and energy costs, placing additional pressure on consumers and businesses.
For Nigeria, rising crude oil prices could provide a fiscal boost, as the country’s flagship crude grade, Bonny Light, recently traded at about $108 per barrel, significantly above the Federal Government’s 2026 budget benchmark of about $64.85 per barrel.
Industry analysts, however, caution that while higher oil prices can increase government revenue, persistent geopolitical instability could also create uncertainty in global energy markets, leading to increase in price of refined products such as petrol and diesel, which can raise transportation costs and worsen inflation.
They noted that oil prices may remain volatile in the coming weeks as investors closely monitor developments in the Middle East and the potential impact on global oil supply.
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Although the Federal Government, through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, has moved to secure crude oil supply for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery via third-party international traders to sustain local refining operations and stabilize prices .
However, Officials warned that consumers might not see an immediate decrease in fuel prices from these interventions.
According to chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) Dr. Muda Yusu, expanding domestic refining may not significantly lower petrol prices in Nigeria, especially as global crude oil prices rise above $100 per barrel.
Yusuf said that while local refining could improve fuel supply stability, petrol prices would still largely depend on global crude oil market trends.
He explained that since crude oil is priced using global benchmarks, local refining cannot completely shield Nigeria from international price movements.
“Crude oil feedstock for refineries is priced using international benchmark prices and denominated in U.S. dollars, irrespective of the location of the refinery. Even crude supplied by local producers or the national oil company is priced using international crude oil benchmarks.Domestic refineries also pay a premium of about $3–$6 per barrel in order to secure crude supply,” he stated.
