FX reforms to lift Nigeria’s reserves to $51bn in 2026 – CBN

From Adanna Nnamani, Abuja

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected Nigeria’s external reserves to climb to $51.04 billion in 2026, as foreign exchange reforms and rising capital inflows strengthen the economy.

In its latest macroeconomic outlook report, the apex bank said sustained FX market reforms would stabilise the naira and boost investor confidence, driving higher reserves and improved external balances.

The CBN also projected Nigeria’s international investment position (IIP) to remain in a net borrowing position of $69.58 billion in 2026, citing attractive yields that are expected to attract increased foreign capital inflows.

According to the bank, the positive outlook builds on gains recorded in 2025, when Nigeria posted a balance of payments surplus of $5.8 billion, while external reserves rose to an estimated $45.01 billion, up from $40.19 billion in 2024.

The report said relative stability in the FX market has been driven by domestic reforms, higher capital inflows, stronger export receipts and expanding local refining capacity.

On growth, the CBN projected the economy to expand by 4.49 per cent in 2026, supported by structural reforms, a gradual easing of monetary policy and increased investment in the oil sector. Headline inflation is also expected to moderate to an average of 12.94 per cent, helped by easing food and petrol prices.

The fiscal outlook for 2026 remains optimistic, with retained revenue estimated at N35.51 trillion and expenditure at N47.64 trillion, resulting in a projected deficit of N12.14 trillion, or 3.01 per cent of GDP. Public debt is expected to rise slightly to 34.68 per cent of GDP by end-2026.

The apex bank said Nigeria’s external position would remain strong in 2026, driven by robust exports, steady remittance inflows, higher oil and gas output, improved domestic refining capacity and rising global demand. The current account surplus is projected to increase to $18.81 billion.

However, the CBN warned that risks remain, including inflationary pressures from excessive fiscal spending, global financial market shocks, geopolitical tensions and possible disruptions to crude oil production.

Despite global headwinds, the bank said Nigeria’s economy performed strongly in 2025, with growth estimated at 3.89 per cent, up from 3.38 per cent in 2024, buoyed by improvements in both the oil and non-oil sectors.