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By Olaoluwa Oyekanmi
The political sands of Osun State are shifting in ways that could fundamentally alter the outcome of the August 15 governorship election.
What has historically been a two-horse race between the All Progressives Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party has now become something altogether more complicated. The entry of a third force—backed by no less a figure than former governor Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola—has introduced new variables into an already volatile equation.
Aregbesola, who famously crossed the aisle to support Governor Ademola Adeleke during the 2022 election, has now dumped the APC entirely and pitched his tent with the African Democratic Congress (ADC). He is backing a former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, Mr Najeem Salau, to fly the party’s flag.
For political mathematicians studying the Osun contest, this development carries profound implications—most of which, ironically, may benefit the APC’s Bola Oyebamiji.
The arithmetic of division
The logic is straightforward, if counterintuitive.
Governor Adeleke, now running on the Accord Party platform following his departure from the PDP, already faces the challenge of rebuilding a political structure from a different foundation. The PDP’s influence in the state has been complicated by the exit of key figures to other platforms, potentially thinning the vote for the incumbent.
Now comes Aregbesola’s ADC, which is expected to draw from a similar pool of anti-incumbent sentiment that might otherwise have consolidated behind Adeleke or fragmented across multiple opposition platforms.
In electoral terms, division among opposition forces typically advantages the most organised and best-resourced candidate. In this race, that description increasingly fits Oyebamiji and the APC.
“The entry of a third force changes everything,” said a political analyst who tracks Osun politics closely. “In a head-to-head contest, Adeleke’s personal popularity and incumbency advantages would make him very difficult to beat. But when the opposition vote is split across multiple candidates, the candidate with the most cohesive party structure and strongest external backing has a clear path.”
That candidate, by most accounts, is Oyebamiji.
Aregbesola’s complicated legacy
The former governor’s move to ADC is itself a story of political realignment with deep roots.
Aregbesola was once the dominant force in Osun APC, a kingmaker whose word carried extraordinary weight. His falling out with the party’s national leadership, and specifically with President Tinubu’s camp, has been one of the most closely watched political dramas in the South West.
His decision to support Adeleke in 2022 shocked many observers and contributed significantly to the PDP’s victory. Now, his decision to back Salau under the ADC banner suggests that his alignment with the incumbent was tactical rather than ideological—a marriage of convenience rather than a lasting partnership. For Adeleke, losing Aregbesola’s support while simultaneously having to contest on a new platform (Accord) rather than the PDP structure that brought him to office represents a double vulnerability. For Oyebamiji, the calculation is simpler: any vote that goes to ADC is a vote that does not go to Accord.
The Salau factor
Najeem Salau, the ADC candidate, is not an unknown quantity in Osun politics. As former Speaker of the State House of Assembly, he has his own political network and a record of legislative service that commands respect in certain quarters.
But political observers question whether the ADC structure, particularly in a state where the party has historically been a minor player, can effectively mobilise voters at the scale required to win a governorship election. Aregbesola’s endorsement carries weight, but endorsements do not automatically translate into votes—especially when they come from a figure who has changed party affiliations multiple times in recent years.
Moreover, the timing of Aregbesola’s move has raised questions about its strategic coherence. By entering the race as a third force rather than aligning with either the incumbent or the APC, the ADC risks being perceived as a spoiler rather than a serious contender for victory.
That perception, if it takes hold, could further fragment the anti-incumbent vote rather than consolidating it behind a single alternative.
What the numbers suggest
The 2022 election results provide a useful baseline. Adeleke’s victory margin of approximately 28,000 votes was substantial but not insurmountable. In a race where the APC has achieved unprecedented internal cohesion and the incumbent is contesting on a new platform, that margin becomes potentially vulnerable. If the ADC captures even a fraction of the votes that might otherwise have gone to the incumbent or remained with disaffected voters who stayed home, the electoral math shifts further in Oyebamiji’s favour.
“This is not about predicting exactly how many votes each candidate will get,” one strategist noted. “It’s about recognising that the political geography has changed. The old two-horse race assumptions no longer apply. And in a multi-candidate contest, the most organised machine usually wins.”
By that measure, the APC’s machine—bolstered by federal support and unified behind a single candidate—looks increasingly formidable.
And that will be to Oyebamiji’s benefit.
Oyebamiji’s calibrated alignment
This is where the Tinubu factor becomes significant and may lend Oyebamiji a major helping hand.
Alignment with a sitting President, particularly within the South West’s political architecture, is never a trivial advantage. It brings organisational coherence, access, and a narrative of continuity that can be persuasive in a region that often prizes political alignment as a pathway to development. It also, inevitably, invites suspicion. Opponents will frame it as imposition, as Abuja reaching into Osun’s political space with a preferred outcome in mind.
That argument will find some resonance. It always does.
But it will run up against another reality. Oyebamiji is not an outsider being introduced to Osun. He is a product of its political and social fabric, a son of Ikire and a long record of engagement that predates his current ambitions. The question for voters will not simply be where he is coming from, but whether what he brings with him is sufficient.
There is also the matter of timing.
Nigeria’s broader political mood is shifting, if only slightly, from a fixation on personality toward a renewed, if cautious, interest in performance. It is not a wholesale transformation. Charisma still counts. Narrative still matters. But there is also a growing impatience with governance that dazzles without delivering.
Oyebamiji’s candidacy seems calibrated to that moment. It offers a different proposition, one that suggests that the era of improvisation can give way, however gradually, to one of structure.
•Oyekanmi is a political analyst based in Ife, Osun State
