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Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Economic Affairs, Tope Fasua, says Nigeria’s economy is beginning to recover from the severe disruption caused by the government’s earlier reforms, insisting that the administration’s policies are producing measurable results.
Fasua made the claim during an interview with ARISE NEWS on Saturday, where he defended the government’s economic record amid concerns over persistent hardship, high fuel prices, inflation and rising poverty.
According to him, recent economic indicators show that Nigeria has moved away from the worst stage of the downturn, with stronger growth now emerging.
Fasua particularly pointed to the latest Gross Domestic Product figures, arguing that the reported 4.43 per cent growth rate represents a significant improvement.
“Because, in short, it’s because the reforms are working and Mr. President is absolutely correct to say that the numbers are delivering,” he said.
He maintained that the 4.43 per cent figure represented the strongest growth recorded in several years, disputing suggestions that the performance of the economy had been understated.
Fasua also pushed back against concerns about the manufacturing sector, saying its contribution to Nigeria’s GDP has historically remained within a relatively limited range.
“I also talked about the growth in industrial manufacturing sector. You said it has fallen sharply. I don’t know the meaning of sharply, because when I researched into that, I realised that the manufacturing sector has always hovered between 7% to 9% in this country,” he said.
He attributed the changing share of manufacturing partly to the expansion of the services sector, which he said has benefited from the growing influence of information technology, digital platforms and social media.
Beyond GDP growth, Fasua listed several developments he described as evidence of progress under the Tinubu administration.
He cited Nigeria’s exit from the Financial Action Task Force grey list, gains in the stock market, the recapitalisation of banks and insurance companies, student financing through the Nigerian Education Loan Fund and improvements in some debt indicators.
“We are talking of Nigeria being removed from the FATF grey list, that’s a plus. We are talking of the stock market growing by 130 trillion Naira. We are talking of recapitalisation of banks by 4.3 trillion Naira, which was done mostly locally in the stock market,” he said.
Fasua further said NELFUND had provided about N350 billion in support to 1.6 million students, while the insurance sector had received about N300 billion in recapitalisation.
He also pointed to what he described as improvements in the debt-to-GDP ratio, debt-service-to-revenue ratio and foreign exchange reserves.
“We’re talking about better debt-to-GDP ratio at 38%, 39%, better debt service-to-revenue ratio falling from 120% in December 2022 to 50%, 60% now. You know, better external reserves of $54 billion,” he said.
While acknowledging the economic difficulties Nigerians continue to face, Fasua argued that the country’s performance should not be assessed exclusively through negative indicators.
“You can’t pull defeat from the jaws of victory,” he said.
He also disputed the argument that incomes had failed to rise alongside living costs, claiming that earnings had increased for workers in different parts of the economy.
“You also mentioned that income has not increased. I don’t know where you got that from. Income, I can challenge all of you sitting on the set today, all of your incomes have increased, have doubled in the last two years,” Fasua said.
He said the increase could also be observed among civil servants and artisans, many of whom, according to him, now charge more for their services.
On poverty statistics, the presidential aide questioned the ability of international organisations to independently determine the number of Nigerians living in poverty.
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“The IMF has absolutely no capacity to tell that data, to say who is poor, who is not poor in Nigeria. They don’t have the boots on ground to go to any of these places, the remotest part of this country, to see what is happening,” he said.
Fasua argued that international institutions rely heavily on data supplied by bodies such as the National Bureau of Statistics.
He also said employment figures should form part of any assessment of household welfare, claiming that roughly 90 million Nigerians are engaged in work across different sectors.
According to him, official figures may not fully reflect emerging forms of employment, including online businesses, entertainment and digital content creation.
Turning to petrol prices, Fasua acknowledged that fuel costs remain a major contributor to inflation but argued that the performance of the wider economy should not be judged solely by the price of petrol.
He attributed the recent rise in crude oil prices to the US-Iran conflict and said the increase had contributed to higher fuel prices.
At the same time, he pointed to increased domestic refining capacity as a major development, particularly the production of refined petroleum products through the Dangote refinery.
“Because of the US-Iran war, we started to see an uptick in the price of crude, and this has resulted in an increase in the price of fuel,” Fasua said.
“But we cannot judge a country by the price of fuel alone.”
He expressed optimism that inflation and interest rates would continue to moderate, while predicting a stronger naira.
“Certainly to stay the course, because like I’m sure, the worst is over for the Nigerian economy in terms of when the economy was in a downturn,” Fasua said.
He identified 2023 as the point when the immediate shock from the government’s reforms became most pronounced, while describing 2024 as particularly difficult for Nigerians.
According to him, inflation began showing signs of easing in 2025, alongside a moderation in some food prices.
“Inflation is being managed. Even interest rates will soon start to go down. The Naira is projected to get stronger,” he said.
Fasua said the government was now seeking to shift greater attention towards productivity, local value addition and the export of finished products rather than raw materials.
“The focus of the government is clearly on productivity, value addition to the raw materials that we send out, including food out of this country, all those crops and crude oil,” he said.
He cited the activities of Nigerian manufacturers and exporters, including Innoson Motors and Nord, as examples of businesses operating within what he described as the emerging economy.
Fasua also urged Nigerians to hold state and local governments accountable for resources allocated to them, saying the Federal Government alone could not resolve every economic problem confronting citizens.
“Tinubu will not solve every problem, okay? But he has empowered the states,” he said.
He called for greater attention to the responsibilities of subnational governments as the country continues its economic adjustment.
