History has a stubborn way of repeating itself. It reinforces a pattern when actors defy its red flag. In 2003, a godfather in Anambra State abducted a sitting governor, kept him incommunicado, tendered a purported resignation letter to the State House of Assembly and nearly removed him from office. In broad daylight, public buildings in Awka, the state capital, were set on fire by misguided miscreants to contrive an atmosphere of breakdown of law and order, so that a State of Emergency (SoE) would be declared. It was, however, scuttled.
The case of Rivers State is different. SoE was declared and democratic structures disbanded for six months. Professor Jibril Ibrahim, a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), analysed the four ways in which the powers-that-be strengthened the hands of Wike (the godfather) against Fubara (the godson). But in justifying the federal government’s decision, the taciturn Attorney-General of the federation, Lateef Fagbemi, SAN, absolved Wike of any wrongdoing. He said that the declaration of SoE rather saved Fubara from the imminent impeachment and talked tough with a warning: “Let the signal be clearly sent for those who want to foment trouble, who want to make the practice of democracy and enjoyment of democracy a mirage, to think twice.”
Indeed, the sledgehammer jittered the governors. Reality suddenly dawned on them that despite the excessive powers wielded by some of them, they could be uprooted by a mere presidential pronouncement. Governor Monday Okpebholo of Edo State, whose election is still being challenged at the law courts, had to timeously distance himself from the rejection of SoE by the South-South Governors Forum. The acting Governor of Cross River State, Peter Odey, on behalf of his boss, also took exception to the forum’s position. Both are of the APC family. Even the secretariat of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) tactically evaded the crossfire of endorsements and rejections for obvious reasons. Hence, what played out is more political than constitutional. And now democratic backsliding is at full throttle in Nigeria.
In situating the drivers of democratic backsliding across the globe, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace locates and explains the three distinct dimensions: “grievance-fuelled illiberalism, opportunistic authoritarianism and entrenched-interest revanchism.” Presenting further details, it notes that, “In cases of grievance-fuelled illiberalism, a political figure mobilizes a grievance, claims that the grievance is being perpetuated by the existing political system and argues that it is necessary to dismantle democratic norms and institutions to redress the underlying wrongs. Opportunistic authoritarians, by contrast, come to power via conventional political appeals but later turn against democracy for the sake of personal political survival. In still other backsliding cases, entrenched interest groups—generally the military—that were displaced by a democratic transition use undemocratic means to reassert their claims to power.”
The unfortunate declaration of SoE represents a culmination of anti-democratic forces plaguing the state. From the destruction of state assembly complex based on impeachment scare, to the Honourable Members’ hoisting of another political party’s flag during plenary, to the burning of LGA secretariats, to the multiple court cases, to Wike’s invincible boasting, to picking of holes in judgments of the Supreme Court, and to Fubara’s veiled threat, “remain calm, you’ll receive instructions at the right time”, all are the push-and-pull indicators of democratic backsliding.
Ex-President Goodluck Jonathan shot straight without calling people out. He carpeted the three arms of government for clear abuse of office, powers and privileges and reiterated that they know the right thing to do but often look the other way. Yes, the point is that when a brazen illegality threatens the elite, they make the loudest noise. The plight of the masses that are daily subjected to injustice, exclusion and pauperization by the actions of the ruling class are largely swept under the carpet. The system moves on as if nothing is happening.
The crisis in Rivers State is an elite struggle for the control of stupendous resources and power consolidation. Thus, President Tinubu was goaded to eat the fruit he forbade in the past to checkmate the growing threat of serving him with the Jonathan Treatment. The new opposition elements screaming blue murder today had at one time or the other contributed to the whole mess. When they are not in power, they play up sentiments based on personal grievances. Nasir el-Rufai pulled down the houses of opponents, muzzled dissent and committed human rights abuses. Some of the former governors and incumbents crippled the local government system and even after the Supreme Court had ruled in favour of direct funding some of them are still plotting to circumvent the judgment. What of the black hole of unaccounted security votes of governors, which are largely withdrawn in cash and changed to dollars for private ends? Aren’t these slush funds illegal?
While the SoE in Rivers is a major setback for our democratic enterprise, the larger implication is that, if democracy fails to deliver and improve on the material conditions of the people, thoughts of illiberal and dangerous alternatives become inevitable. Politicians must play by the rules to save this boat from capsizing. The problem in Rivers State is structural and political. Thus, while condemnations trailed the SoE, the suspended members of State Assembly quickly welcomed it and Simplified Movement, Fubara’s political structure, also declared support to the Sole Administrator. As politicians, they were already eyeing continuity at the end of the SoE in September.
For me, the silver lining is that Fubara was spared impeachment, just as a resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta was halted temporarily. Power must be shared to achieve stability in Rivers State. Unfortunately, that is how our democracy rolls. The polarization of Rivers State, two years before the election, is not good for Tinubu. He needs to reach out to all power centres. Not Wike only! Otherwise, envy and bottled-up anger would backfire against him. Mr. President should avoid being dragged into the politics of 2027; he needs to focus on statecraft.