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By Chukwuma Umeorah
TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria Plc has forecasted a post-tax loss of N2.27 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, citing mounting finance costs and persistent reliance on bank overdrafts that continue to weigh heavily on its earnings.
In its financial forecast filed with the Nigerian Exchange, the company projected revenue of N168.52 billion for the quarter, with gross profit expected at N24.50 billion. Administrative expenses of N17.95 billion and finance charges of N6.97 billion are, however, set to erode profits, leaving an anticipated loss before tax of N1.43 billion.
The filing also showed that TotalEnergies plans to generate N44.88 billion in net operating cash flow during the quarter but will channel N30 billion towards debt repayment while also bearing high overdraft costs. As a result, its net overdraft is forecast to close the year at N150.37 billion, only marginally lower than the N155.52 billion recorded at the end of September.
The forecast reflects a grim outlook for 2025 as analysts notes that if the projected Q4 shortfall materialises, the company’s full-year loss could reach about N4.5 billion, compounding the N2.9 billion loss already posted in the first half of the year.
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In its half-year report, revenue had dropped 20 per cent year-on-year to N423.9 billion, while net finance costs spiked by more than 170 per cent, turning profit into a loss. White product sales; petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel slumped by 30.4 per cent over the same period, although the lubricants and non-fuel segment grew 21.6 per cent, providing limited relief.
“The near-term outlook for TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria Plc remains weak, suggesting the need for significant change to its operating strategy in our view,” CardinalStone Research said in a recent note, stressing that finance costs and shrinking volumes have become critical threats.
Industry observers also point to intensifying competition following the entry of the Dangote refinery, which has ramped up local supply and pressured prices. TotalEnergies’ had earlier confirmed that the company had entered commercial agreements with Dangote’s operations, describing it as a significant new player in the supply chain.
The Q4 projection was signed by TotalEnergies Executive Director, Seye Samba, but the company has not provided further details on cost-cutting or refinancing measures. Analysts note that investors will be looking to management for a clear strategy to reduce debt reliance, tame administrative costs, and defend market share in an increasingly competitive environment.
