Follow Us on Google
•Says no direct flights despite rising passenger demand
Aircraft manufacturer Embraer has identified the Cape Town-Lagos route as Africa’s largest unserved air connection, highlighting the persistent lack of direct flights between two of the continent’s major economic hubs despite growing passenger demand.
The revelation is contained in the second edition of Embraer’s Africa Connectivity Report, unveiled at the AviaDev conference in Gaborone, Botswana.
The report identified 55 high-potential city pairs across Africa that currently have no direct air service, up from 45 routes listed in the inaugural report released in 2025.
According to Embraer, the increase in the number of unserved routes underscores a widening connectivity gap across the continent, even as demand for intra-African travel continues to rise.
The report, compiled by Theo Wensink and Renato Carbonieri of Embraer’s commercial aviation marketing team, tracks origin-and-destination markets that have sufficient traffic to sustain commercial flights but remain without direct connections.
It noted that demand for direct travel within Africa is expanding faster than airlines are adding new routes.
“The report’s finding is that Africa’s connectivity gap is widening, not closing,” the authors stated.
They added that routes are “being launched, tweaked, and dropped very quickly,” a trend that reflects “not a shortage of demand but a mismatch between the aircraft airlines are deploying and what these markets actually need.”
At the top of the list is the Cape Town-Lagos route, which currently records an estimated 70 passengers daily in each direction. Embraer projects that traffic could increase to 94 passengers per day each way if airlines introduce direct services and stimulate additional demand.
Despite this potential, no carrier currently operates a non-stop flight between the two cities, forcing travellers to rely on connecting flights through various African hubs.
The report said the findings were based on Sabre booking data covering the period from April 2025 to March 2026. It considered city pairs with at least nine passengers per day each way, a threshold Embraer says is generally sufficient to support approximately three weekly regional jet services once direct flights become available.
Other News
Other major unserved routes identified in the report include Cape Town-Lusaka, Dakar-Libreville, Bamako-Libreville and the Abidjan/Abuja-Nairobi corridor.
While several routes remain unserved, Embraer noted that some gaps highlighted in last year’s report have since been addressed.
For instance, Kenya Airways launched direct Abidjan-Douala services in May 2025 using a combination of Embraer E190 and Boeing 737-800 aircraft under fifth-freedom rights. Similarly, Air Tanzania introduced Cape Town-Dar es Salaam flights in December 2025, while Air Senegal is scheduled to commence direct Dakar-Cotonou operations in July 2026.
However, the report also noted that some previously served routes have reverted to the unserved category following airline withdrawals. These include Accra-Dakar, Lagos-Dakar and Maputo-Nairobi, leaving passengers dependent on connections through hubs such as Johannesburg, Addis Ababa and Lomé.
According to Embraer, much of the demand on these routes is driven by business travel, particularly within the oil and gas sector, as well as diplomatic engagements and growing trade relations among African countries.
The report also highlighted strong growth in several unserved markets. Durban-Mauritius recorded a 70 per cent year-on-year increase in passenger traffic, while Johannesburg-Mwanza surged by 272 per cent, largely driven by South African leisure travellers.
Similarly, Cape Town-Zanzibar traffic grew by 72 per cent from the South African market and is expected to receive a boost when Airlink launches direct flights on the route in October 2026 using its new Embraer E195-E2 aircraft.
To address the continent’s connectivity challenges, Embraer urged airlines to align aircraft capacity with current market realities rather than waiting for demand to reach levels suitable for larger narrowbody aircraft.
The report observed that most of the 55 unserved routes generate between 10 and 70 passengers per day each way—traffic volumes that may be too small for conventional narrowbody operations but are well suited to regional jets and smaller aircraft.
According to Embraer, deploying the right-sized aircraft could help unlock underserved markets, improve connectivity and support the growth of trade, tourism and business travel across Africa.
