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By this time next week, barring last-minute change of plans, or if INEC once again extends the deadline for political parties to submit the list of their presidential candidates beyond the one additional week it has done, either of Hon. Rotimi Amaechi, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu or Senator Ahmed Lawan is going to emerge as presidential standard-bearer of the APC.
Other presidential aspirants should, please, forgive me. No disrespect intended. But just as this column correctly predicted last week that Atiku Abubakar was going to win the PDP ticket, we will be in a position next week to affirm the accuracy of this prediction.
By all accounts, these are the three most formidable aspirants running for the APC presidential ticket. And if there is anytime the APC needs to get its act together and ensure only the best among the three is elected as the presidential standard-bearer, the time is now.
This is because, in spite of the voices of dissent that are expected, especially in our kind of polity where regional warlords always fight for relevance, the PDP has elected in Atiku the most formidable contender in its midst. I am not sure he is the most competent in terms of paper qualification. But then nowhere in the world is paper qualification used to determine who becomes a political party’s presidential standard-bearer.
In essence, the reality is that, unless APC allows what President Muhammadu Buhari correctly described as the choice of the right kind of person whose election will induce hope among the masses, Atiku is going to defeat a weak APC candidate and snatch power back to the opposition party. That may well signal the beginning of the end of APC as a dominant party in Nigeria.
Now, let’s together do the maths and see among the three aspirants who will emerge the winner of the APC primary and stand one door in the presidency, and the other door out (at least until victory is attained).
Let me do a confession here. I am a Tinubu fan. I am always appreciative of the giant strides the old man recorded when he governed Lagos 15 years ago. But there is one reality other Tinubu supporters are refusing to take into serious consideration, which is that of who will be his running mate if he becomes the standard-bearer.
Asiwaju Tinubu is a Muslim from the South. By convention, he must pick a deputy from the North, which is populated mostly by Muslims. If he picks, as he should, someone from among the northern Christian minorities, I bet you the larger North is going to reject the ticket and vote for PDP’s Atiku. But what if he chooses a Muslim? Wow! He surely will receive lots of support from the majority of the North. But Atiku is a Muslim, too, and so will grab a large share of the votes of Muslims.
The North is no longer as united as it used to be. So, in a nutshell, from whichever part of the North Tinubu chooses a running mate, it is going to seriously be problematic for him because the other part of the North not considered will feel slighted and work against the ticket. In essence, therefore, the APC stands to lose the election with a big margin of it fields Asiwaju Tinubu as its presidential candidate.
Now, why are we even talking about religion here? It is one sad reality of our time in Nigeria. We have, unfortunately, become so divided that typically, the first question a Nigerian will ask his compatriot upon meeting for the first time is the state of origin of the other person. That will at times give a hint as to which religion the person subscribes to, especially if his state of origin is Kano or Rivers states, for example. So religious balancing in an election as monumental as presidential in this country is compulsory.
The other strong factor working against Tinubu is the consideration among majority of Christians that since the incumbent is a Muslim, his successor must not only come from the South, but also be a Christian.
So with such a political heavyweight as Atiku on the other side of the political divide, the APC must produce as its flagbearer, someone who possesses all the qualities Tinubu unfortunately does not have.
And this is where Hon. Amaechi comes in. He is a Christian and also from the South. In all his years in public service and private life, he has never been known to have favoured a southerner at the expense of the North. Instead, a large segment of the northern society see him as one of their own. And of course the South is his own turf. He has as many friends in the North and the South-West and South-East, as he has in his South-South playground.
Amaechi is also a resoundingly big unifier, indeed one of the best that this generation of leaders can boast of. And there is no time Nigeria is in desperate need of a unifier than now when it is practically tottering at tenterhooks. And unlike Tinubu, Amaechi has age on his side. At 56 years on earth, Amaechi is seen as the bridge between the old and the young.
And just like Tinubu, Amaechi has also set a record that has not yet been beaten in terms of excellent and accountable governance in Rivers, that he governed for eight years. The only mistake he made was that unlike those who succeeded him, he did not make too much media hype of these achievements or engaged in needless propaganda.
Having been left so much behind by our self-induced injuries, Nigeria is so much in a hurry to catch up with its peers and launch this country among the league of world great nations. Interestingly among the three gladiators, Amaechi is the only one who can hit the ground running if he becomes President, been part of the incumbent government for almost seven years, as Transport Minister. So he knows the current system and will not waste time learning the ropes. This is an advantage he also has over Atiku who, like Tinubu, left government fifteen years ago.
And what of Senator Ahmed Lawan, the Senate President? There is no doubt he is also eminently qualified to be our next President. But he belongs to what, in all truth, can be called the wrong part of the country, as far as next year’s presidential election is concerned.
There is no way anyone can justify another northerner becoming Nigeria’s president after Muhammadu Buhari, from whatever part of the North.
The talk that only a northerner can defeat Atiku is very insulting and cheapening. It doesn’t stand to logic or reason. The North has a record of rejecting its own provided the other candidate is better. It rejected Bashir Tofa and voted for MKO Abiola at the June 13, 1993 presidential election.
So since Senator Lawan also has age on his side, perhaps he is best advised to support Amaechi and wait the next four or eight years when it will once again be the turn of the North to produce president. He will by then have matured even more politically and deepen his handshake across the Niger.
In concluding this piece, Brass Tacks calls on APC delegates not to be lured by the dollar rain that one of the camps is set to effect, knowing that the money will finish one day and their conscience will prick them forever. The best realistic chance is for them to vote for Rotimi Amaechi and prepare the credible, cogent grounds for the APC to continue in power post-Muhammadu Buhari, to have all the ills afflicting the Nigerian nation promptly addressed.
