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…Say region posts highest global jump in Jet A1 costs
African airlines are bearing the brunt of the escalating US-Iran conflict by absorbing the sharpest jet fuel price increases of any continent, experts have warned.
The warning came during a webinar titled “Impact of the Middle East Crisis on African Jet Fuel Markets,” held on Tuesday and jointly organised by the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) and S&P Global. The session brought together industry leaders to examine how the US-Iran war is affecting fuel costs, supply routes and the decision-making for airlines across Africa.
Airlines under financial strain
Opening the discussion, AFRAA Secretary General, Abderrahmane Berthé, said Africa’s aviation industry was already stretched thin even before the war escalated.
He said fuel typically makes up 30 to 40 per cent of airlines’ operating costs and African carriers were already paying 17 per cent more than the global average even before the crisis took hold.
He said the consequences are becoming visible as airlines are cutting flight frequencies and reviewing routes in response to rising costs and this has affected tourism, trade, and the communities that depend on air connectivity. He said however that, “Demand for African air travel remains strong, growing at around 6% a year. The question is not whether Africans want to fly, it is whether our industry is resilient enough to meet that demand when the next shock comes. That resilience starts with securing our own fuel future, and that is the work of this workshop.”
The Associate Director for Price Reporting at S&P Global, Gary Clark, gave details on how the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the escalating US-Iranian war have torpedoed normal pricing patterns across global fuel markets, revealing that Africa has recorded the steepest jet fuel price increases worldwide, followed by Europe.
He said ordinarily, Latin America usually has the highest jet fuel prices while the Middle East enjoys the lowest, but the current crisis has flipped it with Africa and Europe now facing the most acute pressure.
North America, by contrast, has remained insulated from the turmoil, a resilience Clark attributed to the region’s substantial Gulf Coast refining capacity and its flexibility in import and export routing.
Clark also broke down how different African sub-regions are exposed to the crisis based on their pricing benchmarks. North Africa, he explained, tracks European benchmarks, while West Africa has historically depended on a Lomé import price reference.
However, the arrival of Dangote’s refinery has changed the equation as the facility now produces enough jet fuel to cover regional demand, even though consumption growth continues to outstrip supply. East and Southern Africa, which price fuel off Arab Gulf and Singapore benchmarks, were hit hardest when disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz first began, owing to their heavy reliance on fuel flows from the Gulf.
“North Africa references European benchmarks, West Africa has traditionally relied on a Lomé import price benchmark but since Dangote’s refinery began production, Nigeria now supplies enough jet fuel to meet regional demand, though demand growth continues to outpace this. East and South Africa are priced off Arab Gulf and Singapore benchmarks, and were the most exposed region when Hormuz disruptions began, given the highest dependency on Gulf-sourced flows,” he said.
Infrastructure gaps
S&P Global’s Africa Head of Fuels and Refining, Stanislas Drochon, stated that African jet fuel consumption and air traffic have both climbed above pre-pandemic levels, with continued growth expected ahead.
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He said Africa uses roughly 33 times less jet fuel than the United States, 15 times less than Europe, and four times less than the Asia-Pacific region. That gap, he argued, represents an untapped long-term potential for both cargo and passenger aviation on the continent.
He, however, noted that most African countries are heavily reliant on imported jet fuel, with only Egypt and Nigeria functioning as net exporters, together producing around 100,000 barrels per day. The rest of the continent’s dependence on imports drains foreign exchange reserves and increases the risk in the supply chain, especially given the role of the Middle East as a major supplier.
Jobard-Onchon traced how sourcing patterns have shifted since the crisis intensified. From 2022 through the first quarter of 2026 just before the Strait of Hormuz closure, the region sourced roughly half of its jet fuel from within the Strait. Since the closure, that shortfall has been made up through a combination of sources, including the Dangote refinery, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and India.
He also spoke on the continent’s persistent infrastructure gaps. He said many African markets are landlocked and dependent on a handful of transit ports like Beira in Mozambique and Djibouti, which supplies Ethiopia. There is no international fuel-dedicated pipeline that has ever been constructed across the continent and only two cross-border pipelines exist which link Tanzania and Zambia, and Mozambique and Zimbabwe and both were originally built to carry crude oil before being converted for refined fuels. He said domestically, only three pipeline networks carry jet fuel and they are Transnet in South Africa, CPMZ in Mozambique and Zimbabwe, and Kenya’s KPC system.
“Railway networks are largely inefficient for fuel transport, refining capacity is limited, and where it exists it tends to be less competitive than large Middle Eastern, Indian, or Atlantic Basin refineries with the exclusion of Dangote. Most jet fuel is moved by road, which is costly and raises health, safety, and environmental concerns. There is a clear need for investment in storage, pipelines, and import capacity.
“In short, Africa is a growing aviation market with real investment momentum in airports, airlines, and fleets but supply chain resilience has to keep pace with that growth to keep the region cost-competitive. The Middle East crisis may also present an opportunity for African hubs to capture additional market share,” he said.
S&P Global’s Global Head of Aviation Research, James Simpson, said aviation demand is projected to grow by roughly 3 per cent annually through 2050 with jet fuel demand continuing to rise even as efficiency gains and the potential adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) take hold. He said the jet fuel market will be tight for the foreseeable future. The demand keeps climbing even as overall crude demand declines.
He also said that jet fuel markets react far more sharply to disruption than the crude market as before the latest escalation, crude prices had fallen below $80 a barrel, with jet fuel trading around $120 a barrel. Since the conflict resumed in full however, the cost of crude has risen by about $5 to roughly $83-85 a barrel while jet fuel has surged to $140.
He cautioned that a sudden ceasefire would not necessarily ease the pressure, since demand would likely recover faster than supply. He said before the conflict, the Persian Gulf produced around 1 million barrels per day of jet fuel, with roughly half exported to Africa and Europe and the remainder consumed domestically in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Simpson argued that regardless of how the conflict resolves, peace would see demand outstrip the pace of supply recovery, while continued conflict would keep global demand for crude and jet fuel elevated to compensate for lost output.
He also gave details of the scale of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, noting that approximately 20 million barrels per day of oil and refined products pass through the waterway which is around 15 million barrels of crude and 5 million barrels of refined product but only a portion is jet fuel.
Crude, he explained, is easier to redirect, with most rerouted supply heading to East Asia, whereas jet fuel is harder to replace because refineries are limited in how much jet fuel they can extract from a barrel of crude, typically between 8 and 12 percent. Simpson warned that as the crisis drags on, refiners who have been maximising jet fuel output will increasingly face dwindling gasoline and diesel stocks, adding further strain to an already tight market.
“Jet fuel markets are far more sensitive to disruption than the broader crude market. Before this latest escalation, crude had dropped below $80/barrel and jet fuel to around $120/barrel. With the resumption of full conflict, crude has moved up only about $5 (to roughly $83–85/barrel), while jet fuel has jumped to the high $140s, a $25–30 move.
“Even if a ceasefire were reached soon, demand would likely rebound faster than supply. The Persian Gulf produced around 1 million barrels/day of jet fuel before the conflict with half exported mainly to Africa and Europe while half was consumed by Dubai, Abu Dhabi, etc. So whether or not peace holds, the market stays tight: peace means demand outstrips supply recovery; continued conflict means the world still needs more crude and jet fuel to compensate.
“Around 20 million barrels/day of oil and refined products flow through the Strait of Hormuz which is roughly 15 million barrels of crude and 5 million of refined product, only a portion of which is jet fuel. Crude supply is easier to redirect (mostly heading to East Asia) than jet fuel supply, because refineries are constrained in the share of jet fuel they can yield from a barrel of crude (typically 8–12%). As the crisis persists, refiners that have been maximizing jet fuel output will increasingly face trade-offs with declining gasoline and diesel stocks, adding further tightness,” he said.
