By Wilfred Eya
That the prospects of an alliance between the Labour Party (LP) and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) have been finally put to rest is no more in contention.
The development has again put a question mark on the possibility of a formidable Third Force to upstage the two dominant political parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2023 general election.
From the accounts of the two parties in the failed alliance, the move which took off with so much enthusiasm ran into troubled waters early in the negotiation.
The crux of the disagreement was, who between the LP candidate, Mr Peter Obi and the candidate of the NNPP, Senator Musa Kwankwaso, should serve as a running mate to the other. It was one deadlock foretold.
With the romance now over, the two strange bed-fellows (Obi and Kwankwaso) have moved on and currently prospecting fresh options to improve their fortunes ahead of the 2023 general elections.
Before the collapse of the alliance, expectations were high that the coming together of Obi and Kwankwaso would lead to the defeat of the two prominent parties, the APC and the PDP, who are fielding Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar, two old war horses, as their presidential candidates.
Kwankwaso, a former governor of Kano State and founder of Kwankwasiyya Movement was the first to blow the whistle over the botched alliance.
Speaking on Sunday night, July 3, while appearing on a television programme, Kwankwaso explained why he cannot be running mate to Obi in the 2023 general election, saying that it would be difficult for the northerners to vote for a presidential candidate from the Southeast, saying that they are not comfortable with most of the things happening in the South, especially in the Southeast.
Kwankwaso shocked many when he said that the North would vote for a northern candidate rather than any arrangement that produces the presidential candidate from the Southeast.
He proposed an alliance with the presidential candidate of the LP and former governor of Anambra State, Obi, on the grounds that he would be his running mate in the poll.
He said: “I believe it is in the interest of Labour Party and the NNPP, and even in the interest of this country … because LP, as it stands today, certainly cannot win election. Yes! It cannot win elections.
“Because mainly, the support is mainly in a particular zone and not spread, and the figures there cannot earn anybody a presidential seat in this country.”
For the Director General of Peter Obi Campaign Organisation, Dr Doyin Okupe, the talks with NNPP stopped to make headway about four weeks ago.
He accused NNPP officials of hammering on the issue even when the Labour Party had since pulled out of the negotiations, saying that the LP couldn’t have agreed to it because a northern Muslim of the same Northwest geo-political zone, President Muhammadu Buhari, is about to complete eight years in office.
He said that during the coalition talks, he had asked the NNPP leadership if it was fair to field Kwankwaso, a northerner, of which the NNPP leadership said there was nothing wrong with that.
“The moment I asked them one single question: would they consider it appropriate and okay for a president of northern extraction and Muslim to finish eight years and another Muslim northerner from the next state to take over and they said there is nothing wrong with that; as far as I’m concerned, the discussion was over and it has remained over since then.”
He pointed out that the influence of Kwankwaso is limited to Kano, adding that the the former governor of Kano lacked the capacity to fulfill the aspirations of youths on national development.
He said: “For Kwankwaso to come on national television to play an ethnic card, saying the North will not vote for a candidate of the Southeast, this is a man that is electorally restricted to Kano and that’s the problem.
“He’s judging everybody else in the North with the prism of what he sees in the Kwankwasiyya Movement in Kano.
“How do you measure seniority in politics? Is it age or how many years you’ve been in politics? And that’s not the issue right now. The issue is who can solve the problem facing the country. What Kwankwaso is delving into and relying on is that he’s been Speaker of the House of Assembly, a senator, a governor for two terms. That doesn’t answer the question the young Nigerians are asking.
“The young Nigerians are saying ‘our future is in dire straits and we need a man that can drive the country well’. Kwankwaso has nothing in his background that convinces anybody that he can match Peter Obi. It’s not a matter of seniority; it’s a matter of capacity.”
The collapse of the alliance talks between the LP and NNPP has raised a lot of questions on the chances of both parties which could have been a formidable Third Force in 2023.
From past records, Kwankwaso’s strength would not go beyond Kano, his traditional political turf. The projection is that he may have a good outing in Kano and possibly two contiguous states. Many had thought that the alliance with the LP would have given his NNPP a more national spread.
Critical observers agree that the defection of Kwankwaso to NNPP elevated the little-known party into the limelight as a potential part of the Third Force in the 2023 elections, especially in the presidential poll.
Many of his followers, including a former governor of Kano, Ibrahim Shekarau, have joined the party.
Kwankwaso had lost two presidential primaries, to President Muhammadu Buhari in the APC in 2015, and four years later to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in the PDP.
While his supporters see him as a political heavyweight, others see his itinerary across parties in the last eight years as an ego trip.
Not many were surprised that immediately after obtaining the membership card of the NNPP, he was declared its national leader, a position that offers him total control of the party.
He was not accorded the same privilege in the PDP and APC.
The NNPP had, after receiving the high profile joiners, held its national convention in Abuja and elected new leaders.
Rufai Alkali, from Gombe State, a professor of Political Science and former National Publicity Secretary of the PDP was elected the new national chairman.
However, facts on ground showed that Kano is the heartbeat of the party in Nigeria as it is yet to make any significant presence in other parts of the country.
For the LP, the second leg of the botched alliance with its candidate, Obi without doubt has become a movement in Nigeria, particularly among the youths across the nation.
Even before the alliance broke down, many of his supporters made it clear that they were not ready to tolerate him deputising Kwankwaso.
They believe that Obi was the man of the moment as far as the 2023 general election is concerned.
Immediately signs of disagreement in negotiation emerged, the Peter Obi Support Network called on the Labour Party and its presidential candidate, to immediately end talks of an alliance with the NNPP presidential candidate, Kwankwaso.
A pressure group, the South East Revival Group (SERG) said it was regrettable that Kwankwaso “is an ethnic politician, contrary to earlier belief that he is a nationalist.”
In a statement signed by its national coordinator, Chief Willy Ezugwu, SERG said, “the ongoing battle for the soul of Nigeria ahead of the 2023 presidential election does not require an alliance with a politician with ethic-superiority mindset.”
He said: “Peter Obi is a Nigerian, in the race to be elected Nigeria’s president irrespective of the tribe or religion he belongs to, just like every other presidential candidate belongs to their respective tribes and religious bodies.
“But the question now is; has Peter Obi shown Nigerian electorate that he has the intellectual capacity, requisite experience and character to make Nigeria work again?
“The answer is shown all over the country as Peter Obi has been accepted across the country as the majority of Nigerians have vehemently rejected both the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential flag bearers as they belong to the old bloc of expired and failed politicians.”
The former Anambra governor is increasingly perceived in many quarters as the Third Force to break the jinx of power exchange between the APC and PDP in 2023.
Since Obi left the PDP, he has altered so many political projections ahead of 2023.
Many believe that his decision to leave the main opposition party days before its presidential primary was a big blow to the party.
The Labour Party is perceived in many quarters as the vehicle that would cause that radical change that Nigerians have been waiting for. Though pessimists would wish it away, but critical observers are in agreement that the party as symbolized by its presidential candidate, is provoking a new consciousness among the people especially the youths who constitute about 65 per cent of the nation’s population.
Analysts argue that the LP is gradually taking advantage of the void in credible leadership and tapping into the growing disenchantment with the political establishment in Nigeria represented by the two major parties, APC and PDP.
But the snag is that some pessimists still believe that despite the seeming resurgence of the LP, it lacks what it takes in terms of structure to make an appreciable impact in the forthcoming general election.
But Dr Yunusa Tanko, spokesman of the National Consultative Front (NCFront) which adopted Labour Party as the Third Force alternative for 2023 general election said that the LP has more structures than any other party.
His words: “If I may borrow the words of Peter Obi, he said the 100 million Nigerians that are abjectly in poverty and hungry are his structure. Let me also make it clear the NCFront is a conglomeration of several groups across the country, that is a structure; the NCP and other political parties who are part of the NCFront and believe we can work together have structures in every nook and cranny of this country.