By Allison Abanum
The fragrance of failure begins to find expression even before the battle begins. As the Edo State gubernatorial election draw near, the above sentiment is swiftly becoming the reality for some key players and participants in the election, particularly regarding the aspirations of the incumbent political party to retain its leadership position and oversee the state’s affairs for the ensuing four years.
The election is scheduled for the 21st of September 2024, intensifying speculations and in some instances, revealing apparent miscalculations. The ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has nominated Mr. Asue Ighodalo as its candidate, with the unequivocal endorsement of the current governor, Godwin Obaseki.
As has sadly become customary in matters of gubernatorial successions, there is a widely held belief in the state that the current governor is vigorously working towards installing his favoured candidate in order to establish himself as a political godfather, retaining influence over the governance of the state. Governor Godwin Obaseki, in the eyes of many, has not distinguished himself during his eight-year tenure. Numerous individuals harbour significant reservations regarding the performance of his administration, positing that this, among various other factors, is impeding his ability to garner substantial authentic support for his chosen successor. Consequently, he is resorting to questionable political maneuvers, actions, and strategies that are swiftly becoming associated with off-cycle elections, reminiscent of the recent events in the Bayelsa State gubernatorial elections.
Just like others candidates, it remains to be seen how Mr. Asue Ighodalo would execute the strong points of his campaign promises. The PDP candidate’s campaign manifesto, titled “Pathway to Prosperity for All,”appears to be quite generic, resembling what most aspirants to political positions offer as they attempt to woo the electorate. Besides the existing dissatisfaction with how the incumbent governor and ruling party have managed the state’s affairs, there is also concern that despite Mr. Asue’s banking background and reputable standing, his lack of substantial presence in the state, having been primarily based in Lagos, diminishes his appeal. Many believe that given the caliber of the opposition, his chances of victory are dwindling by the day. The recent tactics employed by the governor, apparently negative and steeped in violence and intimidation to favour his preferred candidate, seem to reflect the limited appeal Mr. Ighodalo possesses, hinting at a foreseen defeat at the polls.
Allegations and counter allegations are swirling as to the sponsors behind the violent attacks targeting key figures in the election, notably the APC candidate, Senator Monday Okpebholo. Accusations are being hurled, with a spotlight on the PDP, the incumbent governor, and his favoured candidate, as attacks against their camp are conspicuously absent. The prevailing sentiment is that the current administration has failed to meet expectations and are, therefore, struggling to ensure a seamless power transition to the chosen successor. Public sentiment against the PDP’s candidate is fueled by a barage of valid points chief amongst which is his lack of experience in state affairs, being based in Lagos with little or no knowledge of the socio-political atmosphere of the state and also the incumbent administration’s underperformance. The outlook is indeed very bleak for Mr. Ighodalo and the PDP in the upcoming September election.
A simple analysis can be conducted to substantiate the aforementioned claim. Both the APC and the PDP contenders hail from the Esan/Edo Central senatorial zone. It is widely held that a consensus has been established that the forthcoming governor of the state should emanate from this region for various reasons. The APC gubernatorial aspirant is an incumbent Senator, well-versed in the political terrain of this area and indeed Edo State, with his resounding victory and prominence in the National Assembly serving as a clear testament to his electoral prowess and popularity among the populace. In stark contrast, the PDP candidate lacks a solid foundation in the Esan territory, especially when juxtaposed with the primary opposition. Mr. Ighodalo is evidently capitalizing on the political strengths of the current governor, who has perennially encountered challenges in garnering support in the Edo Central Senatorial zone, given that his influence and appeal are predominantly concentrated in Benin and the Edo South Senatorial zone.
The controversies and challenges Governor Obaseki has faced in Benin, particularly his disputes with the Oba’s palace and other issues, are undeniably detrimental to the prospects of the PDP. It is increasingly apparent that even in Edo South, where the governor is expected to hold significant appeal, influence, and favour among the people, he lacks the requisite premise and power of persuasion. This deficiency was glaringly evident in the 2023 senatorial elections, where the Senate seat was secured by the Labour Party candidate, Senator Neda Imasuen right under his nose, further indicating a reduced influence in the region.
Even more detrimental to the PDP’s chances of success at the elections is the fact the APC candidate’s running mate as deputy governor, Hon. Dennis Idahosa is also from the Edo South Senatorial zone.
He is a seating member of the house of representatives, an astute grassroots politician and one that commands impressive levels of voters appeal so much so that he even contested the primaries for the APC ticket eventually losing to the elected candidate, Senator Monday Okpebholo. Putting all the obtainable data together spells a negative outcome for the PDP and Mr Asue Ighodalo despite the backing of the incumbent Governor Obaseki. It is now evident that it will be an uphill task to even emerge victorious in sub-political battles in the Edo South/ Benin areas where there is next to no blessings from the Oba’s palace, the opposition fielding a running mate from the same zone who commands a considerable amount of voter appeal and one who is considered to be doing well as a member of the House of Representatives.
As if the PDP’s chances are not already slim enough especially considering the struggles in the state capital, the Labour Party candidate, Olumide Akpata is also from this region and is considered the dark horse in the gubernatorial race as he is also doing well for himself as regards being grounded and a widespread acceptance. Evidently the votes from the Edo South senatorial zone is predictively well split amongst all three candidates especially as the Labour Party also holds the senatorial seat for the zone at the moment. The question is if the PDP and Governor Obaseki will struggle to win in their perceived stronghold, then the overall political optics as regards their chances in the elections all over state is not looking good to say the least.
Furthermore, in the Esan/ Edo Central Senetorial zone, it is very clear and expected that Senator Monday Okpebholo, the APC candidate, has very huge chances of victory as he himself is a seating Senator and has the requirements for grassroots mobilisation as well as the fact that he is considered to be doing well for his people in the zone as well. Compared to the resume of Mr Ighodalo of the PDP, who is is seen as someone who has only been drafted in for political reasons without any real grounds and political appeal across the state, the APC is sure to have good success at the polls in this senetorial zone as well.
Up North of the state in the Edo North Senatorial zone, the APC has key figures like the outstanding Senator Adams Oshiomhole as a seating Senator doing magnificently well and make all sorts of positive impacts in his legislative functions in the National Assembly. Also, Governor Obaseki’s deputy, Mr Phillip Shuaibu whom he has been at loggerheads with over an extended period is from this region as well. Their disagreement has seen the governor use his reach to influence an impeachment of this deputy sparking a legal battle which ultimately resulted to a reinstatement by a federal high court in Abuja with a further permanent injunction, effectively barring Governor Godwin Obaseki and the Edo State House of Assembly from interfering with Shaibu’s ability to carry out his duties as deputy governor, thereby protecting his rights and responsibilities in the office.
It is safe to assume that Philip Shuaibu and all he can muster will not be working for Governor Obaseki and his candidate in the forthcoming elections. It is also worthy to note that the current Minister of the Niger-Delta Affairs, Engr. Abubakar Momoh is from the Edo North Senatorial zone as well and he further adds to an already formidable line up that will definitely sort of drive up support for the APC candidate. The conclusion is that Edo North is resoundingly locked down for the APC bar any extremely surprising outcome, especially as Senator Adams Oshiomhole is a pivotal part of the APC campaign team. Oshiomhole has overtime proved his mettle as an astute leader with high levels of commitment and integrity. As a former governor of the state, he enjoyed remarkable success during his time at the helm of affairs. A man of the people and an advocate of transparency, fairness and the rights of the people to optimum service. For many, Adams Oshiomhole remains the best governor the state has ever had, drawing from the heights the state attained in all metrics of good governance during his eight years in office.
Putting all the above and more into perspective, especially carefully considering the struggles that the PDP and Governor Obaseki is facing in the Edo South Senatorial zone where the people are voicing dissatisfaction with his tenure thus far, his squabbles with his deputy and Oba’s palace, the presence of formidable forces. The grounds already built by the opposition in the home region of the annointed Asue Ighodalo, his inexperience and lack of political grounds in the area and the fact that the APC has got the Edo North senatorial zone absolutely on-lock also with formidable hands on deck. The hand writing is clear on the wall that the elections in September will predictably end in disappointment for the PDP and Governor Obaseki’s apparent quest to have Mr Asue Ighodalo succeed him as governor of Edo State.
The general assumption is that the current administration recognizes its very slim chances of victory as the polls draw closer and, therefore, have resorted to violent tactics of attacks and intimidations of the oppositions as many allege, more so as all the violence have some how eluded them but rather, are targeted at the opposition to the extent of denying workers who support the APC their due salary. As revealed by allegations in some quarters, some workers who have shown support for Senator Monday Okpebholo were denied months of salaries while their contemporaries were being paid. It is valid to insinuate that the incumbent administration has forseen failure with the way things stand and, therefore, resorted to these negative tactics. It is believed that if this administration had performed remarkably well it would have been an easy transition like the case of Bayelsa State where the governor had done very well in the first tenure and, therefore, sought a re-election. It was the opposition now playing dirty and violent politics which ultimately failed.
The manifestos of all the three candidates can be summarized into categories centered around economic development, education, healthcare and security. The people are optimistic that they can vote the right man to transform these agenda into tangible reality. The truth is that the chances of the PDP and the Governor Obaseki-endorsed candidate is very slim as the election draws closer and the oppositions would surely be licking their lips in anticipation of a resounding victory.
*Abanum writes from Orogun, Delta State.