By Desmond Mgbo 

The wedding bell is ringing and in a matter of time, the planned wedlock of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the New Nigeria People Party (NNPP) will take place in the ancient city of Kano.

A sequence of political events, since the recent judgment of the Supreme Court on the governorship elections, tends to suggest a shocking rapprochement between two political arch- rivals in the state. Unconfirmed claims traced the strange fence –mending proposal to the Presidency.

It was gathered that the Presidency had asked both parties to sheath their swords and give peace a chance. The popular speculation is that there was an understanding between President Bola Tinubu and the Kano State Governor, Abba Kabiru Yusuf, part of which is that he would defect to the APC.

A recent visit to Aso Rock by a colourful train of Abuja based Kano APC stakeholder’s appeared to support the script that something is fishing in the polity and President Tinubu is interested in the marriage of the strange bedfellows- who had done everything within human limit to undo each other.

Former House Majority Leader, Ado Alhassan Doguwa, who was part of the visit to Aso Rock, confirmed that they were charged by the  president to return to Kano to make peace with the NNPP administration. 

Sequel to the presidential advisory, an enlarged APC stakeholders’ meeting was convened, last week’s Thursday, at the party’s headquarters in Kano. The meeting, first since the fall of the party, was attended by the party’s National Chairman, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, the Deputy Senate President, Barau Jibrin, ministers and legislators from the state, including the party’s ward, local government and state officers.

The meeting resolved to open its doors to new members. Addressing the press on this theme, Ganduje extended an invitation to the Kano State Governor, Abba Kabiru Yusuf and his followers, assuring them that they would be given the support and the opportunities to prosper in the APC

He also hinted at the goal of all the manœuvrer, which is actually to create a mega party which will make the APC the political party in the state.

According to him, when that happens, it would strengthen the position of Kano as the largest democracy in Nigeria and as a swing state that determines the Presidency of Nigeria.

Political observers reasoned that herein lies the unspoken motive for the strange marriage that is fostered on these  two deadly political enemies and long time rivals.

“The whole ingenious stake may just be to corner all the votes of the state to the benefit of one political party and one single candidate in 2027” reasoned Abubakar Yaro, a political scientist from the state.

Speaking to Daily Sun, he argued that if this project should scale through, it would no longer matter if the rest of Nigerians vote or did not vote for the Presidential candidate of the APC, adding that, ‘With about 5.9 million registered voters in the state- as per INEC figures-, who are largely shared between Kwankwassiyya and Gandujjiya groups and their tentacles, the Presidential candidate of the APC will not need to campaign anywhere in Nigeria to win the 2027 elections. He would just walk to victory no matter his weaknesses and no matter the credentials of his opponents. This is not good enough for democracy.

“That was what former President Buhari did and that was what survived his administration, irrespective of whether Nigerians in the other regions or states were happy or unhappy with his performance.”

At the moment, the robust question is how will this odd marriage work? Who will be in charge? Is it the APC who had just lost power or the NNPP who are in charge of power in the state?

Answer to this cracking question recently reared its face and has been raising a lot of dust already. In one of the videos that circulated at the weekend, Ganduje recommitted himself to the leadership of the party in the state and the country, announcing that he would be in charge of every member irrespective of where the person was to come from. But will the NNPP buy into his script?

So far in all these scenarios, the future position of the leader of the NNPP, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has been silent or at best not discussed. The assumption however is that Kwankwaso will inevitably be on the move to the APC with the governor. While this will surely come with some perks for him, given his desperate bid to settle in a big party like the APC with a national outlook ahead of future presidential project, moving into the  territory of his former foes is tricky and might come with a price tag.

Many have been asking that if Kwankwaso eventually defects with Governor Abba to the APC, would he be accompanied by his Kwankwasiyya ideology, politics and movement to this new abode?

“Wouldn’t his defection entail his murdering a highly successful political ideology and identity that he spent years of his politics and sagacity to build?”  Questions and questions that only time can answer.

The second critical question that is also being asked is whether a high heeled politician like Kwankwaso, who sees himself as next to the sky, would accept to come down low to report to the National Chairman of APC, a man who was his deputy and aide in the past? Will he be humble to assume such a role?

According to Kolawole Adeniyi, Head of Programmes at Cool FM/Wazobia, Kano in one of his programmes, it would be hard for Kwankwaso to submit himself to Ganduje just as it is unlikely that Ganduje would bow to Kwankwaso given his position as the National Chairman of the party. This situation will soon create an impasse in the reunion party.

Closely related to the above is the fact that Kwankwaso will lose his position as a proxy – actor or manager of Kano Government House. Today, the governor who happens to be his political son, reports to him on most matters of governance in the state. But if the governor yields to this deal of joining another party, he will probably be reporting to the Presidency more than to Kwankwaso and chances are that as time goes on, he would do same to the National Chairman. That will certainly reduce the overarching influence of Kwankwaso on the governance in Kano State.   

Another issue is that while the senior members of the two political parties might be near- ready to subsume or pretend about their differences in a bid  to protect their long- term political interests, the lower echelon of the parties are offended by the whole talks. Many party stalwarts described the whole merger plot as selfish.

Members of the NNPP who had thought that now is their time to reap from their years of political struggle in the wilderness are sad that they would now have to open théir space to accommodate their rivals, who in any case, had enjoyed the fortunes of democracy in the past eight years.

“I cannot understand this nonsense. If we defect to APC, these same people whom we fought out of power will now come to share governance with us. It is unfortunate,” said Ibrahim Audu Yakasai, an NNPP loyalist.

Daily Sun investigation revealed that in many wards and local councils, members of the NNPP are junior to their APC counterparts in the scheme of politics in the area. The NNPP, therefore fear that with the merger, these APC members, with better logistics and resources, might reassume the higher  positions at the ward and local communities while their members might be relegated,

The same discontent is loudly echoing among the ordinary members of the APC over the proposal. A social media report which circulated on Sunday indicated that the Chairman of the party, Abdullahi Abbas did not find it funny selling the idea to his party men last Friday. Some of them, it was gathered, have vowed to join the PDP in the event of the union with the NNPP.

A close ally of former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau and leader of PDP in the state told Daily Sun that their party was monitoring the development with keen interest. He predicted that the real problem for the NNPP and APC merger will come with the issue of power sharing.

“Traditionally, Kwankwaso does not join a party without conditions. He must have demanded for a share of the party’s leadership structure at  the state, local council and ward level. How that would play out is to be seen.

“I see however, a bigger problem in the years to come. Today, the NNPP controls the majority of the state House of Assembly, House of Representatives and two senators. APC in the state has far less. The real fight will come when it is time for party primaries.  Certainly, many representatives of the NNPP do not appear to be in the mood or in a hurry to surrender their tickets in the name of merger. This result will be  the collapse or the fall of the so- called mega party dreamt of by.