…urges Tinubu to stop culture of ‘survival’ economy
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the 36 governors of the country have been advised to stop the habit of constantly resulting in borrowing to fund projects.
Seeking foreign loans to fund the national budget is a “cycle fiscally irresponsible, economically unjust, and morally indefensible.”
This advice was given by the Country Director, GOALPrime Organisation Nigeria, Professor Christopher Chinedumuije, a professor of Disaster Management and Humanitarian Studies, in an open letter to President Tinubu as part of activities marking the second anniversary of the administration that berthed in 2023.
Professor Chinedumuije said that “I once again write to you not as a critic, but as a concerned citizen and patriot who sees a nation gradually collapsing under the weight of borrowed survival.”
He added that “As we commemorate two years into the Renewed Hope Administration and as states begin preparing their 2026 budgets, one truth must be accepted without excuses: Nigeria cannot continue to borrow to fund the national budget. This cycle is fiscally irresponsible, economically unjust, and morally indefensible.”
According to him, while relying on statistics from the Debt Management Office (DMO) Nigeria’s total public debt stock as of December 2024 stood at ₦97.3 trillion (about $115 billion), adding that “debt servicing alone accounted for ₦8.25 trillion, more than 74% of the total projected federal revenue for 2024 (Budget Office, 2024). In Q1 2025, debt servicing consumed over 90% of federal retained revenue (CSEA Nigeria, 2025; BudgIT, 2025).
“We are borrowing to pay salaries. We are borrowing to run ministries. We are borrowing to maintain a bloated, inefficient government.
This is not governance. It is slow national asphyxiation.”
While proffering solutions to stem the practice of borrowing to fund projects, Chinedumuije urged Tinubu to devolve development plans and actions to the states and the local governments that are closer to the people whose lives and businesses require urgent interventions.
The president needed to “Assign clear constitutional responsibilities for primary healthcare, basic education, and rural infrastructure to states and LGAs with funding to match.
“Establish State and LGA Development Coordination Councils empowered to manage donor projects and national social investments.
“Incentivize state-led innovations through competitive development grants from the federal government and development partners.”
He noted that failure to act decisively and urgently too portend more dangers to nation’s economy and its people.
“Your Excellencies, while I have highlighted what we need to do differently, it is also important that I be generous to highlight the consequences of inaction.
“If the above recommendations are ignored, we must brace for national insolvency Fitch Ratings downgraded Nigeria’s credit outlook in 2024, citing unsustainable debt trajectory.
“With 20 million out-of-school children and healthcare spending at just 4% of the budget, we are heading toward systemic social collapse (UNICEF Nigeria, 2024).
“Youth unemployment is at 53% (NBS Q4 Report, 2024). Hunger, anger, and hopelessness are a dangerous mix.
“By 2050, Nigeria will become the 3rd most populous country in the world—but population without productivity is a burden, not a blessing (UN Population Division, 2024).
“The IMF and World Bank have both warned that continued borrowing without reform will make Nigeria ineligible for concessional finance and investment guarantees (IMF Article IV, 2024).
FULL TEXT
OPEN LETTER TO THE PRESIDENT, GOVERNORS, AND MEMBERS OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
Ref: Stop the Borrowing – Nigeria Must Breathe on Its Own
Mr. President, Your Excellencies the Governors, Distinguished Members of the National Assembly,
I once again write to you not as a critic, but as a concerned citizen and patriot who sees a nation gradually collapsing under the weight of borrowed survival. I write with the urgency of someone who believes Nigeria still has a chance to avert catastrophe—but only if we act now.
As we commemorate two years into the Renewed Hope Administration and as states begin preparing their 2026 budgets, one truth must be accepted without excuses:
Nigeria cannot continue to borrow to fund the national budget.
This cycle is fiscally irresponsible, economically unjust, and morally indefensible.
Presently, the alarming reality is that Nigeria’s total public debt stock as of December 2024 stood at ₦97.3 trillion (approximately $115 billion) (DMO, 2024). Debt servicing alone accounted for ₦8.25 trillion, more than 74% of the total projected federal revenue for 2024 (Budget Office, 2024). In Q1 2025, debt servicing consumed over 90% of federal retained revenue (CSEA Nigeria, 2025; BudgIT, 2025).
We are borrowing to pay salaries. We are borrowing to run ministries. We are borrowing to maintain a bloated, inefficient government.
This is not governance. It is slow national asphyxiation.
Respectfully, I present to you why the Borrowing Must Stop
***1. Loss of Economic Sovereignty: Nigeria owes China over $4.2 billion (ICIR Nigeria, 2024), with many of these agreements lacking transparency and accountability.
***2. Intergenerational Injustice: The World Bank warns that over 40% of oil revenues will go to debt repayments by 2030 (World Bank Nigeria Development Update, 2024).
***3. Violation of Fiscal Responsibility Act: Our consistent breach of the 3% fiscal deficit ceiling is in clear contravention of the Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2007.
Your Excellencies, it is important to highlight what this government must do differently
1. Democratize the Budgeting Process
Let budgets reflect the people’s needs—not elite assumptions.
Only 25% of Nigerians understand the national budget process (BudgIT State of States Report, 2023).
Nigeria ranks 148th out of 180 on global budget transparency (IBP, 2023).
2. Diversify and Expand the Revenue Base
The informal sector—making up 57.7% of GDP—is under-taxed (IMF, 2023).
Non-oil tax revenue in Nigeria is less than 8% of GDP, compared to over 25% in Kenya and South Africa (OECD/ATAF/AUC, 2023).
3. Monetize Idle Public Assets
Over ₦10 trillion worth of dormant federal assets are wasting away (World Bank Audit, 2022).
Nigeria has 50,000 underutilized public buildings and land assets (Bureau of Public Enterprises, 2023).
4. Cut the Cost of Governance
The Oronsaye Report recommended merging over 500 redundant agencies, saving ₦862 billion in a decade—yet it remains unimplemented (Presidency, 2023).
National Assembly running costs exceed ₦197 billion annually (BudgIT, 2024).
5. Invest in Revenue-Yielding Projects Only
Over 70% of public capital projects are abandoned or unproductive (ICPC Nigeria, 2023).
PPP frameworks can attract over $100 billion in private infrastructure investment (ICRC, 2023).
6. Restructure the Federation for Fiscal Productivity
Only 8 states can fund their recurrent budgets from internally generated revenue (BudgIT, 2024).
Fiscal federalism must incentivize productivity, not monthly federal allocation dependency.
7. Decentralize Development to Subnational Actors
Development must no longer be dictated from Abuja alone. Progress must begin where Nigerians live—in LGAs, communities, and wards.
Why This Matters:
Over-centralization has stifled innovation, delayed delivery, and created a one-size-fits-all approach that ignores local realities.
According to UNDP (2024), countries that devolve development functions to subnational levels perform better on service delivery and citizen satisfaction.
Nigeria’s over-reliance on the federal government for infrastructure, education, and healthcare undermines state and LGA capacities.
Action Steps:
Assign clear constitutional responsibilities for primary healthcare, basic education, and rural infrastructure to states and LGAs with funding to match.
Establish State and LGA Development Coordination Councils empowered to manage donor projects and national social investments.
Incentivize state-led innovations through competitive development grants from the federal government and development partners.
Your Excellencies, while I have highlighted what we need to do differently, it is also important that I be generous to highlight the consequences of Inaction.
If the above recommendations are ignored, we must brace for:
1. National Insolvency
Fitch Ratings downgraded Nigeria’s credit outlook in 2024, citing unsustainable debt trajectory.
2. Collapse of Public Services
With 20 million out-of-school children and healthcare spending at just 4% of the budget, we are heading toward systemic social collapse (UNICEF Nigeria, 2024).
3. Explosive Civil Unrest
Youth unemployment is at 53% (NBS Q4 Report, 2024). Hunger, anger, and hopelessness are a dangerous mix.
4. A Lost Generation
By 2050, Nigeria will become the 3rd most populous country in the world—but population without productivity is a burden, not a blessing (UN Population Division, 2024).
5. Global Isolation
The IMF and World Bank have both warned that continued borrowing without reform will make Nigeria ineligible for concessional finance and investment guarantees (IMF Article IV, 2024).
Dearest Excellencies, we must ask ourselves this very honest question: Should we Reform or should we allow our dear nation to Ruin?
Mr. President, Distinguished Governors, and Honourable Lawmakers—the honest answer to this question will define your legacy.
Always have in mind that you were not elected to borrow. You were elected to build.
Let history remember this government as the one that restored Nigeria’s financial dignity and decentralized progress to every home, every village, and every LGA.
Let this be your legacy:
That you ended the borrowing era. That you gave Nigeria back its breath. That you put Nigeria back to work.
Respectfully,
Professor Christopher Chinedumuije (PhD, FBU)
Professor of Disaster Management and Humanitarian Studies