Follow Us on Google
After listening to the leaders of the main opposition political parties in Nigeria at the weekend when they gathered in Ibadan, Oyo State capital, for what former Senate President David Mark coined ‘National Rescue Mission,’ I agree the opposition leaders appear to have finally seen the need to sacrifice their individual interests and pride and to settle for what can practically win the 2027 Elections.
Of a truth, it sounded cool, listening to the leaders at the Ibadan Summit on Saturday.
The host Governor, Seyi Makinde, started on a practical note while welcoming his guests when he charged that “Democracy without opposition is not democracy, it is a slow drift toward a one-party state”.
The coalition leaders, after their deliberations also captured this view concretely in the statement they released after the meeting. They said; “The decision to rally behind a single candidate is driven by the need to avoid fragmentation of votes and to strengthen the opposition’s chances at the polls.”
The points being made, in my view is that the opposition has noted some important realities that will help it to tackle the ruling party in Nigeria.
One of such realities is that they only have a chance if they can unite and present a single candidate or ticket, or put more practically, if they can present a realistic ticket – a ticket that can truly win the presidential election in today’s Nigeria.
This, I must admit, is the right point to commence this race.
So, I presume that after arriving at these seemingly beautiful conclusions, the next, proper step to take is to think of the right candidate to choose. This is the crux of the matter.
The opposition knows for certain it is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu that will fly the flag of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC. They know Tinubu’s and the ruling party’s strengths and weaknesses. They know the electoral processes, the umpire’s modus operandi and the possible nuances that may be played up.
Also, the opposition knows the gains and pains of the people of Nigeria in the years Tinubu or APC has ruled them, so, they know all they are supposed to know.
This being the case, the challenge before Nigerian opposition today is not what they were supposed to know that they probably did not know. It is instead, if they are willing to do what they know they have to do?
In my humble opinion, one of the primary things that can defeat Nigerian opposition ahead of 2027 Elections is if it chooses to lie to itself on the right Presidential Candidate to field.
Yes, this is key to opposition’s failure or success in 2027?
If the opposition truly intends to challenge Tinubu and his party, the APC, to the polls, it must be able to produce the right ticket and support that ticket faithfully.
To help the opposition leaders to make this crucial decision, may I remind them here and now that majority of Nigerians that will vote in 2027 Elections are the same electorates who voted in 2023 Elections, I mean those of us that are lucky to survive hunger and insecurity and are still alive today. Some electorates who have lost loved ones in most painful circumstances in the country will of course also participate in 2027 Elections with greater passion or furry than what happened in 2023.
Yes, others, whose fortunes have reportedly improved for the better since 2023 will also respond according to how governance has truly impacted them.
So, both the ruling party’s ticket and that of the opposition should expect passionate Nigerian electorates determined to vote and to defend their votes.
This being the case, it seems wise that opposition leaders must be willing to accept and wholeheartedly work for the victory of the right ticket even if the ‘biggest’ and ‘most experienced’ politicians amongst them fail to be named as part of the realistic ticket.
If you have carefully followed the misfortunes of the opposition coalitions in Nigerian political battles, you will agree that one tiny virus that have plagued coalitions here, over the years, have been personal pride, ego: the claim that I am the biggest and the best politician who must be given the ticket.
Such egoistic politicians stick to such unrealistic positions even when it has become obvious to them and to their informed followers that society has evolved and that time now shows a different reality.
Other News
May I posit here therefore that coming in terms with this reality is the first battle the opposition coalition must fight and win if it ever hopes to make reasonable impact in 2027.
It is a battle it must no longer afford to delay.
So, if I may ask, who will fly the coalition’s Presidential flag? Is it Peter Obi? Is it Atiku Abubakar? Is it Rabiu Kwankwaso? Is it Rotimi Amaechi?
Who will they present as the Presidential candidate and who will be his running mate – the right ticket with which the coalition plans to win in a free and fair 2027 Elections?
In my view, the coalition leaders and their followers know themselves and the current truth in our polity.
Yes! If they truly want to challenge and defeat President Tinubu and the APC during the 2027 Elections, they know which candidate or which combination of their leaders to pair to arrive at what I may call a real ticket. Until they come to the political battlefield with the real ticket, they will only be lying to themselves and to their supporters.
Also, these coalition leaders know which zoning formula represents the undiluted truth of today. If they follow this truth, this fairness, there is every likelihood that distrust and such like will be sufficiently minimized in our political theatre.
I say this because even conservative theorists who argue that politics is hardly about fairness or equity could not have forgotten so easily that when the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, ahead of the 2023 Elections, suddenly denied the zoning calculations it promoted over the years, and handed over the party’s Presidential ticket to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar from the North-East zone, notwithstanding that the North, through President Muhammadu Buhari, was just completing an eighth year tenure in office, that decision not only helped to hand power back to the ruling APC, which presented Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu from the South-West, it also finally killed the PDP, the once ruling party which prided itself as the biggest political party in Africa.
So, although former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Aminu Tambuwal and the other top Northern aspirants may have been presented by their supporters as ‘Grade A’ politicians, eminently qualified to rule Nigeria, it is expedient for the opposition coalition to diligently Counsel itself and to resolve to follow equity.
As we approach 2027, the coalition or any other political party should not repeat the grave mistake PDP made in 2023. Any party that does so, will have itself to blame.
The point being made here is that by Election Day in 2027, the South would have ruled for just four years after Buhari’s eight years and so, it would therefore be equitable for the opposition to allow it (the South) to produce the candidate that it tends to present to Nigeria to govern for the remaining four years before power will return to the North.
This will require presidential aspirants from the North to allow the lessons of this reality to guide them as the coalition shops for it’s flag bearer.
This is to say that if I were Atiku, I will refrain from contesting the presidential primaries and instead choose the role of The Leader of the Coalition (a bposition I believe no one will, in this circumstance, contest with him). From that honourable standpoint, I will strategically negotiate with all the critical stakeholders, including other visible leaders like Senator David Mark, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, Hon Rotimi Amaechi, Hon Aminu Tambuwal and many others who still operate from behind the scene, to ultimately influence or sponsor the emergence of a younger, equally strong and favoured team; in this case, “A Peter Obi/Rabiu Kwankwaso Ticket, which will offer Obi a one tenure deal so that power can return to the North at the expected time.
Such a ticket, at a time like this, especially if the coalition can achieve it without going through acrimonious and or contentious primaries that would feature victories and defeats within the house, will indeed make the 2027 Presidential Election a multi-party contest.
When this happens, the other important issue to contend with would be how to protect electoral processes to ensure correct results are announced at last and that the people’s votes count.
Already, this promise of unity from the opposition leaders have at least planted in some people, the dream of a possible peaceful festival in celebration and sustenance of our democracy here in Nigeria.
A lover of democracy can today visualize an Obi/Kwankwaso Presidential Campaign rally across the streets of Kano, Yola, Abuja, Kaduna, Lagos, Ibadan, Onitsha, Abeokuta, Maidugri, Jos, Enugu, Port Harcourt, Aba, Warri, Benin, Lokoja, Owerri, Asaba, Umuahia, Uyo, Calabar, Abakaliki, Yenagoa and many other cities, holding almost at the same time with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s APC (Renewed Hope Agenda)-led campaigns.
On the coalition train, he can visualize an Alhaji Atiku Abubakar with other elders, guiding willingly as fatherly figures, ably supported by their massive followers, plus the Obidients, the Kwankwasiya members and of course millions of hungry Nigerians eager for a new and workable understanding in the country.
Such may possibly define the tempo of 2027 General Election Campaigns if the leaders are truthful enough and courageous enough to make the necessary sacrifices today.
• Samuel Hezekiah Egburonu Esq, a lawyer, veteran journalist and literary scholar, is a current affairs analyst.
