From: Ismail Omipidan, Abuja
The die appears cast. And the battle line drawn between the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), in Osun and the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) over the soul of the state, ahead of next year’s governorship election.
Barring any change in the Electoral Act, the candidates of the two leading parties, including those of other pretenders are expected to emerge before the end of this year. And considering the fact that the governorship contest would be the last before the 2027 presidential election, the ruling APC at the centre, analysts say, is unlikely to look away, the way it did in 2022, where the ruling APC in the state was treated as though its party was in opposition at the centre.
Already, the two parties appear to have put up what could pass for a dress rehearsal of what to expect next year with its contest for power at the council level. Although, both parties are still locked in a fierce contest for the soul of the councils, whoever carries the day would no doubt be in a good start for next year’s governorship contest.
Regardless, for the PDP, it is unlikely to change its candidate. It is given that the incumbent, Governor Ademola Adeleke will get the ticket, especially since his major challenger within the party, Prince Dotun Babayemi and his hundreds of thousands of supporters have defected to the APC.
For the APC, the coast appears unclear. Although, there are strong indications that the former governor, Adegboyega Oyetola, who was the party’s candidate in 2022 may not run, investigations reveal that he would be playing a major role in determining who flies the party’s ticket for two major reasons: One, he is the official leader of the party in the state and he has shown leadership so far, by leading the battle to reclaim Osun, from the front. Two, He has a deep pocket and tremendous goodwill.
Already, agitations within the party to offer the ticket to Osun West Senatorial District is very loud. Those pushing the narrative are of the view that, should Oyetola formally declines to run, the party should not hesitate to look the way of Osun West. Daily Sun investigations reveal that majority of the party elders and young elements within the party appear to be in sync with the agitation. They reasoned that since the incumbent governor is from Osun West, there would be a balance of contest to have the two major candidates from the area. Besides, Osun Central, where Oyetola hails from produced the governor in 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2022. Cumulatively, the area has ruled the state for 15 years, while Osun East, where former governor, Rauf Aregbesola hails from, ruled for eight years, leaving Osun West with just five years by the end of the current tenure of the incumbent.
How PDP resurrected in Osun
After the 2014 governorship election in the state, where PDP suffered a devastating defeat in the hands of the APC, with its woes compounded after the 2015 election, losing almost all the legislative seats at the National Assembly election, many, including the APC had written the PDP off in the state, declaring the party as one which could never rise again.
But by 2017, the “dead” party resurrected, after beating Aregbesola’s anointed candidate, Senator Mudashiru Hussein, in a contest for the Osun West Senatorial District, a contest Aregbesola himself had boasted would go the way of the APC, come rain, come sun shine.
By the time the results of the by-election were officially released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), of the 10 councils in the Osun West Senatorial District, the APC only managed to win one, with the PDP clearing the remaining nine, posting 97, 480 votes, and APC trailing behind with 66, 116 votes. The results were announced in Iwo, headquarters of the senatorial district by the then INEC’s Residential Electoral Commissioner for the election, Mr. Baritor Kpagih.
The road to the defeat
Following the sudden and tragic demise of Senator Isiaka Adeleke, Ede people in particular, felt a sense of loss, and had hoped that the then APC-led administration in the state would find a way of compensating it, by at least allowing it to produce the late senator’s successor. Although the Aregbesola-led administration denied any rift with the late senator, the way it managed issues arising from his death leaves much to be desired.
For instance, after his death, the state could not give him a state burial, despite the fact that he was the first civilian governor of the state. Explaining the circumstances that prevented it from giving the former governor a state burial, then Aregbesola’s spokesman, Semiu Okanlawon, said the unruly behaviour of the mob denied the late Adeleke of a state burial befitting him as a former governor.
Okanlawon, who also denied any political rift between Aregbesola and Adeleke as being speculated then, said despite the short notice of the funeral being an Islamic one, the state government had prepared to dignify it as a state burial in view of Adeleke’s status as an ex-governor, adding that the then Deputy Governor was leading a government delegation to the funeral, when the report of violence came to their notice.
“We don’t think that would be the best way to honour Senator Adeleke, who was known to be a man of peace. The tribute of the governor to the late Senator has taken care of it all. There was no rift whatsoever. It was an unfounded rumour. As (former) Governor Aregbesola said, he worked for the governor’s re-election and the governor worked for his election into the Senate in 2014…. Yes, there would always be power blocs, but the fact is they were in the same party and would always work for the interest of their party. In any case, he was entitled to vie for the governorship and Aregbesola is not seeking a re-election. So, how could there be friction?” Okanlawon had said, in 2017.
However, if anything, Daily Sun learnt, the coroner inquest into the circumstances leading to Adeleke’s death, did not go down well with the family. The inquest, which was at the instance of the then state government, turned out to portray the late senator, as a “drunk,” who had little or no attention for his health, despite his status.
It was further gathered that the state government might have insisted on the coroner, following speculations that some of its agents might have poisoned the late senator.
The screening, the defection
Barely a month after Adeleke’s death, INEC announced July 8, 2016, as date for the by-election. And in preparation for the election, the APC National Headquarters set up a screening committee. Hussein and Ademola Adeleke presented themselves for screening. But Aregbesola preferred Hussein, as he was his anointed candidate.
In the end, the committee disqualified Hussein on the grounds that he had not resigned his appointment before aspiring to the position of a senator. The committee was said to have relied on Article 31 (iii), of the party’s constitution and the 2014 APC Guidelines on the Nomination of Candidates for Public Office.
The committee held that “in conformity with the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, qualification for aspirants to respective offices in State House of Assembly, House of Representatives, Senate, Governor and President, the party’s guidelines prescribe that an aspirant seeking public office on its platform shall not have remained as an employee of the Public Service within 30 days preceding the date of the election.”
Interestingly, the committee further held that Hussein admitted while appearing before it that he was indeed a commissioner in the Aregbesola’s cabinet, even after obtaining a nomination form, an action they noted was at variance with the party’s guidelines. It, however, advised Hussein to seek redress through the party’s Appeal Committee in case he was not satisfied with the committee’s verdict.
Hussein appealed the verdict of the Screening Committee, but the Appeal Committee upheld the decision of the Screening Committee, noting among other things that: “During the petitioner’s appearance before it, he confessed that his nomination form did not satisfy the full requirements of a legal document which could stand him for election.”
The committee further stated that, “an objective view of the petitioner’s nomination form for the primary was not duly sworn to before a magistrate or a notary public and his failure to do this constitutes an incurable defect. The failure of the petitioner to submit his nomination form for the purpose of certification and oath before a magistrate or a notary public is fatal to his cause. Upon the above consideration, the appeal for reconsideration and reversal as presented by Hussein lacks merit and is hereby dismissed. Consequently, the disqualification of Hussein by the five-man election screening committee for the Osun West Senatorial District primary election of the APC is hereby upheld.”
What many did not know then was that the Screening Committee was playing the script of those positioned to undermine Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, ahead of the 2019 presidential election.
How the 2017 Osun West Senatorial By-election was won and lost
Adeleke is very popular brand in Ede. His political patronage, however, cuts across the entire Osun-West Senatorial District. Daily Sun learnt that rather than make attempt to placate the family and the people of Ede, Aregbesola and the APC carried on as if the political family of the late senator posed little or no threat to the APC in the state.
For instance, during the campaigns leading to the election, Aregbesola, while canvassing for support for his candidate in Ede, had said the late senator’s younger brother, Dr. Deji Adeleke, may be suffering from mental illness, following the death of his elder brother. That message did not go down well, with an average Ede person, it was further learnt.
Hear him: “Deji Adeleke is a businessman, he is not a politician but it is like his brother’s death has run him mad. (O dabi pe iku egbon e ti da lori ru). It is a lie that I borrowed money from Deji.
“It is to the glory of God that they got the Certificate of Occupancy of their university from our government. Why didn’t those who are their new friends give them the C-of-O of that university? If Deji Adeleke had so much money, why did he beg me to waive the payable tax of his university? Why couldn’t he just pay?
“I am bold enough to say this over and over again because I have never sought assistance from any member of the Adeleke family, even during the lifetime of Senator Isiaka Adeleke. Nothing of such occurred.”
In a swift reaction, the Adeleke family also said “What’s more appalling is Aregbesola’s outburst – as widely quoted in major newspapers, that Senator Isiaka Adeleke’s sudden death ‘has affected the psyche’ of Dr. Deji Adeleke. How? One may want to ask: If Aregbesola has a giant, a towering personality and eminent person like the late Senator Isiaka Adeleke in his family, and he lost such a distinguished personality to the cold hands of death, will he take to the streets and dance merrily?
“Why should Ogbeni Aregbesola carry politics to this ridiculous end and act like a tin god, who will never leave the office as governor and this transient world as a human being? To those of us living, inclusive of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, we don’t know how we will end up. Senator Isiaka Adeleke died gloriously. The whole world celebrated his death.
“If Aregbesola is talking of a contentious Certificate of Occupancy, is he the one that provided the billions of naira that put Adeleke University up as the ‘Harvard’ of Nigeria?”
In the end, apart from the sympathy for the late Adeleke, Aregbesola’s handling of the screening process, the campaign in Ede, coupled with the growing disenchantment with his government policies and programmes at the time, ensured victory for PDP’s Ademola Adeleke. The mere fact that APC lost Iwo to the PDP is an indication that even some APC members may have worked against the party’s candidate. PDP’s victory was double assured following the decision of the PDP factions in the state to bury their hatchets and unite in support of Adeleke.
How 2018 Governorship was won and lost
The contest for 2018 governorship was fierce. The current governor was the PDP’s candidate, while Oyetola was the APC’s candidate, with Aregbesola being the outgoing governor at the time. At the end of the first ballot, there was no clear winner, as Oyetola, polled 254,345 votes, winning 15 councils, while his challenger, Senator Adeleke, polled 254,698 votes, winning 12 councils. But the Returning Officer for the election, Professor Joseph Fuwape, Vice Chancellor of the Federal University of Technology, Akure, said even though the PDP candidate led with a difference of 353 votes, it was not enough to declare him winner, going by INEC’s guidelines.
According to him, INEC’s election guidelines stipulate that where the margin of victory in the election is lower than the number of voters in units where elections are cancelled, no winner shall be declared. Instead, he said a re-run will be ordered to determine the eventual winner.
Before the re-run, both the APC and the PDP reached out to the former Osun Deputy Governor and immediate past National Secretary of the APC, Senator Iyiola Omisore, who was the candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in that election for support. In the end, Omisore backed the APC, saying among other things that he believed Oyetola would manage the state better than Adeleke.
Daily Sun’s investigations however revealed that Oyetola’s competence to govern Osun notwithstanding, Omisore may have turned his back on the Adeleke’s family because of the betrayal he suffered in their hands, twice, within three years. For instance, the late Senator Isiaka Adeleke’s last minute defection in 2014, caused Omisore that governorship. Again, Omisore helped the incumbent, Senator Adeleke to win the by-election in 2017 on the understanding that he won’t run for the governorship. But he reneged, contested, and forced Omisore to leave the PDP for SDP.
Aregbesola, Dr. Deji Adeleke unite again
In the 2022 Governorship contest, Aregbesola and his camp did not hide their opposition to the APC in Osun. While some of them openly canvassed for and worked for the PDP, others did it behind closed curtains. In the end, PDP polled 403, 371 votes ahead of APC’s 375, 027 votes. Confirming a working collaboration between them, Governor Adeleke, shortly after the election that brought him into office, said he received support from Aregbesola’s political associates. Will they work together again, ahead of next year’s election?
For now, there appear to be no sign to show that the Aregbesola’s camp would be willing to do business with the Adelekes again. This is so because the ‘Terms and Conditions’ of the collaboration between the PDP and the Aregbesola group, were not strictly adhered to after the election, a situation that forced some prominent members of the group to stay away from the PDP-led government in Osun. This is even as investigations revealed that majority of the young elements within the Aregbesola camp appear to be favourable disposed to returning to the APC, to work for its victory, in next year’s governorship election in Osun, provided the APC’s candidate comes from the West Senatorial District of the state. But the older elements are pushing for a working relationship with the ruling PDP in the state, once more. Yet, there are those withing the camp, who wants the group to join the Mallam Nasir El-Rufai’s Social Democratic Party (SDP).
However, how the APC manages the choice of its governorship candidate in the next year’s election will go a long way to determine whether or not it can reclaim Osun State. But Considering the defection of majority of those who helped it to power, in 2022, to APC, PDP must return to the drawing board, if it wants to retain the state after the 2026 governorship.