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By Omoniyi Salaudeen
Barely a week after the presidential primary of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which produced Alhaji Atiku Abubakar as its standard bearer for the 2023 general elections, the echo of ethnic chauvinism that played out behind the scene at the convention ground in Abuja has continued to reverberate across the country.
Apart from the emotional sentiment about the alleged bare-faced tribal solidarity that altered the balance of political calculations in favour of the former vice president, one other major throwback of that event is the reopening of the age-long traditional fault lines between the North and the South.
And it gives cause for worry as most state actors now rely more on ethnic-based support within their enclaves than other political affiliations that have national spread for fear of the unknown.
By allowing the Northern elders to interfere in the process of its internal democracy, by a deliberate breach of its gentleman’s agreement on power shift as contained in its constitution, the leadership of the PDP has pitched itself against the South. Notwithstanding the fence-mending effort that has been activated to restore the trust and confidence back in the fold, the event of Saturday, May 28, has set the country back in it drive to genuine nationhood by reinforcing the mutual suspicion that has made internal unity and cohesion almost an impossible task.
By that singular action, the Northern aspirants have shown their counterparts in the South that, indeed, blood is thicker than water. And the effect will continue to resonate in the minds of concerned stakeholders for a very long time to come.
Less than 48 hours to the June 6 planned convention of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), all eyes are now on President Muhammadu Buhari who has equally declared his intention to anoint his would-be successor ahead of the D-day. While aspirants have been crisscrossing the country campaigning for delegates’ votes, he kept the idea to his chest until recently when he met with the APC governors and begged them to allow him to choose his successor.
Depending on how things play out, this may be the last straw that will break the Camel’s back unless there is a level playing field for all the aspirants who have spent fortunes to obtain their nomination forms and done the necessary consultations.
Ahead of the event, there has been a loud disquiet within the party over the move to foist his preferred candidate on other aspirants. By letting out his succession game plan at the eleventh hour of the convention, Buhari has also inadvertently created more suspicion than an assurance of internal cohesion.
Watching the handwriting on the wall, some political pundits have already predicted a repeat of the scenario that played out during the primary of the PDP. The last-minute entry of the Senate President, Senator Ahmad Lawan, into the race has further lent credence to the speculation that APC might ultimately tilt the power pendulum towards the Northeast to counter Atiku’s voting strength in that region.
Even at that, the party has boxed itself into a tight corner. It has reached a crossroads in its search for the right candidate. On one hand, some analysts argue that it is politically expedient for the party to zone its ticket to the North if it must sustain itself in power. And on the other hand, there are serious dissenting voices within who are against any undemocratic move that could make the party lose the next election.
A former member of the APC, Chief Chekwas Okorie, who has just returned to the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), while expressing his opinion on the matter in an interview with Sunday Sun, said: “The emergence of Atiku as PDP candidate has introduced some alterations in the power calculations. Because of this, if the president fails to intervene, and somebody from the South emerges as the candidate, that will be the surest way to surrender power back to the PDP.
“In political power calculation, sentiments are often not involved. I predicted long ago that APC will do whatever PDP had done. When PDP went to the North-central to take a chairman, I said APC will do the same and it came to pass. I said PDP will go to the Northeast to take Atiku Abubakar, they have done it. APC will not do anything different. They will all go to the Northeast to split their votes and rely on Buhari to deliver the votes in the Northwest to remain in power.
However, going by the feelers from the APC caucus, particularly in the Southwest, if that happens, the result may be, to your tent, oh Israel.’
Just as talks are still ongoing between President Buhari and the APC governors on the possible way to arrive at a consensus candidate, the supporters of the national leader of the party, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is one of the front runners for the presidential race in the region, have continued to voice out their opposition against any form of imposition.
According to them, the statement made by President Buhari is not only undemocratic, but also unconstitutional. Pre-empting what may likely transpire at the primary, the group has already concluded arrangement on its Plan B to pitch a tent with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in case of any eventuality.
Senator Anthony Adeniyi (SAN) who is the leader of the Southwest Agenda for Asiwaju (SWAGA), in a chat with Sunday Sun, unequivocally declared Buhari’s statement on consensus arrangement as unconstitutional and undemocratic.
His words: “It has never occurred that somebody will pick a successor in a presidential system. I don’t believe he meant what he said. In a country that consists of over 200 million people, how can a president say he wants to pick a successor? Did anybody pick for us when he contested for the ticket of the APC in 2014? I believe that whoever wrote the speech for him must have made a mistake. He never meant it.
“The new Electoral Act says the emergence of a candidate must be by convention either through direct, indirect primary or consensus. If it is by consensus, the consensus of all aspirants has to be applied. He does not have the power to force delegates to vote in a particular direction. We are all co-owners of APC; we didn’t give him the power to pick his successor. We only gave him the power to be president. No more. Constitution does not empower any leader to pick a successor. So, he cannot use the power that is not vested in him.
“Of course, he is a human being; he can take interest in the nomination of his successor, but he cannot impose any candidate on us. Nobody is saying he should not have an interest, but his interest should not supersede the overall interest of the APC. It is APC members that will vote, it is not the president. Asiwaju has a support base across the country. So, I am still optimistic that he will emerge as the candidate of the party.”
In his overall assessment of the current political situation in the country, Okorie warned of the dire consequences of the ethno-religious and sectional factors that would henceforth dominate Nigeria’s political future with the ongoing brazen imposition of candidates. He predicted a new realignment of forces in the days ahead.
He said that more and more people would be gravitating towards their ethnic enclaves than the mainstream politics at the centre.
He said: “You will soon see a realignment of forces in the days ahead. Already, we have Rabiu Kwankwaso pulling out of the PDP to play up ethnic politics. That means cornering Hausa votes not only in Kano, but the entire Hausa constituencies in the North.
“Who was thinking of Shekarau/Kwankwaso combination before? They used to be small political rivals. But they have now combined to retrieve Kano and by extension the Hausa people from the hegemony of the Fulani.
“In the Middle Belt, you will also see a realignment of forces. Niger Delta people too will review their position. With what the PDP did to Wike, South-South has to go back to the drawing board. In spite of what Wike did for Tambuwal, they have proved to him that blood is thicker than water. You think all these things did not come with very painful lessons. It will show in the results of the coming election.
“After the 2023 election, all those who are beating their chests that they determine the flow of power will become sober and realise the need to meet other Nigerians so that we can decide how we want to live together and give everybody a sense of belonging.”
All said and done, it appears that the scheming by the gladiators from the South to achieve a power shift in 2023 has run a complete circle.
But the question of whether or not the South can trust the North again remains a puzzle.
Since the advent of the present democratic dispensation, the Southeast and South-south have remained dependable allies of the North.
The PDP primary has clearly shown that the North has no permanent friend, but permanent interest.
For being so fixed on power control, an erudite Professor of Public Law at the Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, on his Facebook wall, chastised the power mongers in the region for holding the country down despite the seeming ineptitude of those in control of the government.
“I think the North is only interested in power and nothing more. The sweetness of power and the allure it brings is what appeals to them not work. If not, how can a region be so decimated by its own internal contradictions and trudge on as if the region is not regressing.
“In the face of calamity, what you can see is an eerie silence, since power is with their elite who are thoroughly dependent on the public treasury to survive. The poor too draw happiness from the fact that power is in the hands of their elite even if they will die of poverty and insurgency. We are happy that power is with us even though we don’t know what to do with it.
“This mindset will definitely lead others to move out of the union. You can’t slow down your own progress and those of others and expect them to clap for you,” he posited.
